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Managing China's Rise
June 2005 | ATLANTIC MAGAZINE | By Benjamin Schwarz.
Contending effectively with China's ambitions requires a better
understanding of our own. (1) Acknowledge that the pace of China's
military modernization and the nature of its geopolitical alignments are
very much tied to the post—Cold War imbalance of power in Washington's
favor. (2) The U.S. should conduct whatever foreign policies it deems
appropriate—but it must recognize that actions it perceives as selfless,
others will most likely see in an entirely different light.
..Intervention by a dominant power accelerates the rise of other great
powers and ensures their wariness, if not their hostility, toward it.(3)
Rethink how Washington defines a "China threat."(4) examine the
strategic implications raised when regional and great powers emerge.
Far from discouraging the rise of China and other independent powers,
such as the European Union and Japan, Washington should recognize the
significant benefits that can result.
China  geopolitics  China_rising  U.S._Navy  U.S.-China_relations  PACOM  introspection  grand_strategy  strategic_thinking  U.S.foreign_policy  post-Cold_War  misinterpretations  Thucydides_Trap  selflessness  rising_powers  rivalries  confrontations  imbalances 
march 2010 by jerryking
Fear of China - WSJ.com
APRIL 21, 2006 | Wall Street Journal | by ROBERT D. KAPLAN.
"Given the stakes involved in the competition between the U.S. and China
in the new century, the only way that the business community's optimism
can be sustained is if the U.S. military thinks and plans in terms of
worst-case scenarios." "Motives -- especially in a dynamic and volatile
society such as China's -- can easily change over time, and are
dependent upon unforeseen domestic and foreign crises. Thus, when it
comes to countries that are not allies, the job of a military is to
think in terms of capabilities; not motives."... While American and
European elites think purely in terms of globalization, Chinese leaders
think also in terms of 19th-century grand strategy. "relationships are
more important than hardware." "Thinking pessimistically about China
should never be a self-fulfilling prophecy,"
Robert_Kaplan  China  ambitions  scenario-planning  worst-case  U.S._military  motivations  capabilities  strategic_thinking  PACOM  grand_strategy  thinking_tragically 
march 2010 by jerryking
Where are the Kissingers for the 21st century?
Feb. 26. 2010 | The Globe & Mail | by Jeremi Suri. At
its core, leadership is about connections and calculated risk-taking.
Mr. Kissinger excelled at both. He was a big-picture thinker who drew
actively on the work of people with diverse areas of expertise. Mr.
Kissinger might not have done the original research, but he knew how to
identify and exploit valuable new knowledge. In the decades after the
Second World War, Mr. Kissinger guided policy-makers in their responses
to the challenges of postwar reconstruction, communist containment, the
nuclear arms race, limited warfare, Third World revolutions and détente.
Henry_Kissinger  career_paths  leadership  risk-taking  the_big_picture  Communicating_&_Connecting  humanities  realpolitik  21st._century  statesmen  diplomacy  strategic_thinking  grand_strategy  APNSA 
march 2010 by jerryking
Unlearning 101: Study Carneades
July 09, 2008 | unlearning 101 | by Jack Uldrich. " I say that
I’m not entitled to have an opinion on this subject unless I can state
the argument against my position better than the people who support it. I
think only when I’ve reached that state am I qualified to speak.” "
F. Scott Fitzgerald who once said: “The test of a first rate mind is the
ability to hold two diametrically opposed ideas at the same time and
still function.”"
critical_thinking  history  philosophy  skepticism  strategic_thinking  Nassim_Taleb  opposing_actions  books  incompatibilities  Greek  Stoics  dual-consciousness  disagreements  F._Scott_Fitzgerald 
february 2010 by jerryking
The Art of Integrative Thinking
Fall 1999 | Rotman Management | by Roger Martin and Hilary Austen. Modern leadership necessitates integrative thinking.
Integrative thinkers work to see the whole problem, embrace its multi-varied nature, and understand the complexity of its
causal relationships.They work to shape and order what others see as a chaotic landscape.They search for creative resolutions.
to problems typically seen by others as a simple ‘fork in the
road’ or an irresolvable bind brought about by competing organizational
interests.
strategic_thinking  critical_thinking  Roger_Martin  Rotman  filetype:pdf  media:document 
february 2010 by jerryking
The Digitalization of the World - Adam Smith, Esq.
11 January, 2010 | Adam Smith, Esq. | post by Bruce MacEwen.
"Education, as a role for us, should I hope be obvious. We educate our
clients, " and "We don't just rent this knowledge out to our clients, we
should impart it so it becomes their own.
Financial/medical advisers are people to whom we entrust (one hopes) our
every secret, hope, and fear. We should serve the same function. ... We
should be able to provide them with various roadmap's, decision trees,
alternative ways of pursuing their objectives, with lesser and greater
ratios of return and reward. Hands-on personal care? Yes, because there
is no substitute for being there. The more amazing technology and
collaboration-at-a-distance becomes (what the Web, ultimately, is all
about), the more important face to face personal meetings are. The more
people you know "virtually," the more you want to meet them in person."
Bruce_MacEwen  JCK  client_management  inequality_of_information  trustworthiness  knowledge_intensive  management_consulting  indispensable  professional_education  digital_life  teaching  decision_trees  ratios  roadmaps  risk-assessment  strategic_thinking  risks  face2face  personal_meetings  personal_touch  generating_strategic_options  client_development  expertise  digitalization 
january 2010 by jerryking
C.E.O. Libraries Reveal Keys to Success
July 21, 2007 | New York Times | By HARRIET RUBIN. Serious
leaders who are serious readers build personal libraries dedicated to
how to think, not how to compete. If there is a C.E.O. canon, its rule
is this: “Don’t follow your mentors, follow your mentors’ mentors,”
suggests David Leach, chief executive of the American Medical
Association’s accreditation division. Forget finding the business
best-seller list in these libraries. “I try to vary my reading diet and
ensure that I read more fiction than nonfiction,” Mr. Moritz said. “I
rarely read business books..." Favourites: T. E. Lawrence’s ‘Seven
Pillars of Wisdom,’ Machiavelli’s “The Prince.”, Omar Khayyam’s
“Rubáiyát,”
book_reviews  CEOs  reading  books  collectors  fiction  critical_thinking  strategic_thinking  personal_libraries  poets  Michael_Moritz  Ogilvy_&_Mather  mentoring  Niccolò_Machiavelli 
november 2009 by jerryking
How to master the art of thinking quickly on your feet
July 10, 2004 | The Globe and Mail | by Virginia Galt. (1)
Think brevity (2) Think structure (3) Think threes (4) Think movement.
BS3M |
Think brevity

Be aware that your audience values you getting to the point. They value complex ideas being explained simply. Everyone suffers from information overload. If you don't get to the point, you're adding to the overload.

Think structure

Place some kind of framework into your communication so that your audience can see you are organized and have thought about your answer. You have focused your answer into something digestible, something an audience can absorb. It forces you into brevity and clarity.

Think threes

Strong verbal messages require focus. They also require substance. One item is not enough. Seventeen items is too many. Three items is enough for you, and your audience, to retain. Three items forces you to focus on what is really important. It also focuses your audience on only having listen to three. Remember your audience's attention span.

Think movement

Demonstrate your mental ability to be logical, and to move your audience through that logic. What if someone asks a question to which you do not know the answer?
brevity  Communicating_&_Connecting  concision  frameworks  strategic_thinking  improvisation  filetype:pdf  media:document  public_speaking  speeches  Virginia_Galt  structure  clarity  think_threes 
november 2009 by jerryking
Dear Graduate...
JUNE 19, 2006 | Business Week | By Jack and Suzy Welch. (1) As
an ambitious 22-year-old readying to enter the corporate world, how can I
quickly distinguish myself as a winner? -- Dain Zaitz, Corvallis, Ore.

One gets ahead by over-delivering. Start thinking big. Go beyond being the grunt assigned. Do the extra legwork and data-crunching to give [clients] something that really expands their thinking—an analysis, for instance, of how an entire industry might play out over the next three years. What new companies and products might emerge? What technologies could change the game? Could someone, perhaps the client's own company, move production to China?

(2) Revenue growth is at the top of my to-do list. What should I look
for in hiring great sales professionals? -- John Cioffi, Westfield, N.J.
questions  hiring  recruiting  Managing_Your_Career  advice  Jack_Welch  strategic_thinking  anticipating  new_graduates  chutzpah  movingonup  overdeliver  Pablo_Picasso  individual_initiative  generating_strategic_options  independent_viewpoints  thinking_big  game_changers 
november 2009 by jerryking
A dizzying world of insight lurks beyond the averages
Aug 27, 2007 | The Globe & Mail pg. B.6 | by George
Stalk Jr. "A gloriously rich world is hidden from us by "averages." We
manage our lives and our businesses with averages....But as soon as we
choose an average on which to make a decision, we cut ourselves off from
more nuanced information that might lead to a better
decision....drill[ing] down behind the averages can yield rich insights.
What businesses are we in? Where are the opportunities to raise
prices? How fast can we grow this business? How much time does it
really take us to do things? Other intriguing, insightful questions
include: How much money does it take to run this business? Just what do
our customers want? Where do we make our money in this business? Who
are our real competitors? Do our averages conceal sources of
competitive advantage? Looking behind the averages often yields new
strategic and operational paradigms that can help make better decisions
and ensure they are acted upon daily.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
identify anomalies in the first place. Knowing the average margins and market share isn’t enough; look at the entire range of outcomes—across customers, geographies, products, and the like. This allows you to surface out-of-the-ordinary results for closer inspection. (June 18, 2007 | G&M pg. B8 | George Stalk Jr).
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
base_rates  George_Stalk_Jr.  strategic_thinking  insights  BCG  management_consulting  competitive_advantage  questions  extremes  laggards  decision_making  anomalies  leading-edge  quizzes  ratios  second-order  averages  5_W’s 
october 2009 by jerryking
The "Warning" Czar?
Oct. 17, 2009 | - Adam Smith, Esq.| by Bruce MacEwen. The US
has a "national intelligence official for warning", Kenneth Knight, who
oversees a staff of a half-dozen analysts whose job is to monitor the
rest of the intelligence community, challenging their analyses and
assumptions. The goal is to to avoid surprise. One of Knight's core
insights is the difference between what he calls the "simple
likelihood-of-the-event versus impact-of-the-event calculation." Knight
thinks you can systematize this type of analysis by being understand
and being beware of the cognitive biases of experts; by training; and by
creating an institutional check--a warning staff or Red Team. Beware
analytical frameworks--know their limitations.
Bruce_MacEwen  strategic_thinking  security_&_intelligence  systematic_approaches  contrarians  risk-management  counterintuitive  red_teams  anticipating  biases  surprises  warning_signs  devil’s_advocates  frequency_and_severity  intelligence_analysts 
october 2009 by jerryking
An American Sage - WSJ.com
NOVEMBER 14, 2005 | The Wall Street Journal | Editorial

The following is a selection from the writings for The Wall Street
Journal of Peter F. Drucker, who died on Friday night at the age of 95.

not many executives are information-literate. They know how to get data.
But most still have to learn how to use data.

Few executives yet know how to ask: What information do I need to do my
job? When do I need it? In what form? And from whom should I be getting
it? Fewer still ask: What new tasks can I tackle now that I get all
these data? Which old tasks should I abandon? Which tasks should I do
differently? Practically no one asks: What information do I owe? To
whom? When? In what form?
Peter_Drucker  questions  information-literate  information-savvy  management_consulting  strategic_thinking  executive_management 
may 2009 by jerryking
YAM March 2003 - Studies in Grand Strategy
March 2003| Yale Alumni Magazine | by Bruce Fellman

Article profiles participants in an innovative course called "Studies in Grand Strategy" learn how to see the big picture.
Yale  Colleges_&_Universities  curriculum  strategy  innovation  strategic_thinking  grand_strategy  the_big_picture  Sun_Tzu 
april 2009 by jerryking
If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich?
December 27, 2008| Adam Smith, Esq.: An inquiry into the
economics of law firms....| Blog post by Bruce MacEwen
# What are the unspoken assumptions behind this piece?;
# If what the author is saying is correct, what happens next?;
# Does this align with most things we read in the past few months or is
it squarely at odds with the consensus--and then who's right?;
# What are the author's presumed biases, predilections, and
hobbyhorses?; and
# Last and most important--but hardest!--of all, does it spark any new
ideas in your mind? What have you been taking for granted that might be
due for a challenge or an update or a revisionist note?
innovation  lawyers  critical_thinking  Bruce_MacEwen  strategic_thinking  assumptions  smart_people  biases  predilections  questions  aftermath  latent  hidden  insights  ideas  next_play 
march 2009 by jerryking
Bankers Need More Skin in the Game: Glassman and Nolan Say Private Partnerships Would Increase Risk Aversion Among Executives - WSJ.com
FEBRUARY 25, 2009 | Wall Street Journal | byJAMES K. GLASSMAN
and WILLIAM T. NOLAN. Op-ed piece.

(1) Partnerships may be a more trustworthy business model than
corporations.
(2) Alfred Chandler, the great business historian, said that "strategy
determines structure." Similarly, structure determines behavior.
Wall_Street  financial  crisis  risk-taking  risk-management  partnerships  financial_institutions  strategy  strategic_thinking  organizational_structure  behaviours  trustworthiness  risk-aversion  risk-preferences  skin_in_the_game  risks  Alfred_Chandler  human_behavior  business_history 
february 2009 by jerryking
You're In Charge Now - WSJ.com
FEBRUARY 22, 2009, 2:44 P.M.ALEXANDRA LEVIT. "We are living in a
white-water world, and these are Level 3 rapids. You must have a clear
sense of what your purpose is and the skill set to get there." Take
charge, he says: "It's more important than ever to draw on your
imagination, think strategically, take initiative and work outside your
immediate circle of influence."
career  Managing_Your_Career  Alexandra_Levit  strategic_thinking  imagination  self-starters  individual_initiative  intrinsically_motivated  comfort_zones 
february 2009 by jerryking
reportonbusiness.com: Changing Gears
April 25, 2008 | Globe & Mail | by JOSHUA KNELMAN. Their
goal: Improve the experience of cancer patients at Toronto's Princess
Margaret Hospital. GEAR 1 DEEP USER UNDERSTANDING - Grichko and Leung
spent weeks hanging around PMH. GEAR 2 IDEATION AND PROTOTYPING The team
sat down with 20 PMH staffers—managers, surgeons, nurses and support
workers. "The idea of brainstorming is to have no limits—think big,"
says Leung. GEAR 3 STRATEGIC BUSINESS DESIGN Grichko and Leung asked
two key questions: "What do we need, and what's possible?" The answer
was simple: to create a better waiting-room chair
brainstorming  design  design_thinking  furniture  hospitals  idea_generation  ideation  innovation  MBAs  observations  OCAD  product_design  prototyping  Rotman  strategic_thinking  thinking_big 
february 2009 by jerryking

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