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jerryking : time_horizons   13

Billionaires have never had it so good
November 13, 2019 | | Financial Times | by John Gapper

* Fortunes are created by technology and globalization, as well as talent and enterprise.
* The “smart risk-taking, business focus and determination” of rich entrepreneurs give them the ability “to transform entire industries, to create large numbers of well-paid jobs, and to rally the world to find cures for diseases such as malaria.
* billionaires have “an obsessive business focus, constantly scanning the world for new opportunities. And they are highly resilient, undeterred by failures and roadblocks.
* There are more entrepreneurs from middle-class backgrounds who went to elite universities before making their fortunes.

But such success would have been less lucrative in the past — they might have been merely rich rather than super-rich. Before lionising or demonising elite entrepreneurs, consider how their personal talents are amplified.

(1) the superstar effect. Globalisation and technology that allows businesses, such as Google and Facebook, to span markets, help the most successful entrepreneurs to profit faster and at greater scale. Successful founders can create superstar franchises, like some Hollywood stars in China....The economist Sherwin Rosen once noted that “superstar economics” mean the returns to the winner in any category can be vastly higher than the returns to second place. These winners can, as the economist Alfred Marshall commented in 1890, “apply their constructive or speculative genius to undertakings vaster, and extending over a wider area, than ever before”.
(2) The security effect (JCK: aka "long-term vision" or having a long-term time horizon). One reason why the poor stay poor is that they cannot plan for the long-term.....“the present takes up a great deal of [poor] people’s awareness, so they tend to delay investment decisions”. The reverse is true of billionaires, who can finance ideas over decades and ride out failures and setbacks. UBS says that “the outperformance we call the ‘billionaire effect’ depends on the entrepreneur keeping control [of a company]”, but they may be advantaged by security as much as genius.
(3) the insider effect. People do not turn into billionaires without a keen sense of financial opportunity and the drive to make a series of good decisions. But once they achieve positions of power, they are reinforced by a network of advisers and brokers.
Billionaires do not leave their cash at banks; UBS or other private banks handle it. They have insider access, such as the opportunity to invest in private businesses, or initial public offerings of fast-growing companies. Wealth does not automatically beget wealth but moving in elite financial circles with enviable resources helps.
(4) the tax effect. Many countries tax income higher than capital, because it is simpler and they want to encourage entrepreneurs. But this leads to the rich paying less as a share of their wealth than those on average incomes. Wealth is also mobile... billionaires have scope through trust and offshore structures to shield some of their wealth.

It is salutary that more of today’s super-wealthy built their own fortunes, but they are also lucky to live at an unusually helpful time in economic history.
billgates  Campaign_2020  capital_flows  Elizabeth_Warren  financial_advisors  high_net_worth  insiders  long-term  meritocratic  moguls  superstars  tax_codes  tax_planning  time_horizons 
november 2019 by jerryking
The lesson for all investors arising from the lewd comments of a billionaire fund manager
OCTOBER 23, 2019 | The Globe and Mail | by IAN MCGUGAN

The money management industry that, in one way or another, is trying to seduce you.....The key to arriving at a mature relationship is seeing through the patter. Every fund company can trot out attractive, well-educated people with well-researched insights about the market. But look beyond the superficial charm.
More often than not, this will result in disappointment. The performance of most actively managed funds consistently lags passive market benchmarks, especially as you look at longer periods. In Canada, more than nine in every 10 funds underperformed their respective benchmarks over the 10 years to the end of 2018, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

In the United States, similar long-term trends hold true. Even the endowments of Ivy League universities, managed by teams of highly paid professionals, have failed to keep pace with a simple 60/40 portfolio of 60 per cent U.S. stocks and 40 per cent U.S. bonds over the past decade, according to research firm Markov Processes International. One simple lesson to take away from this is that indexing should be the default strategy for most small investors. Unless you have a strong view of where the market is going next, or a compelling reason to believe in a specific money manager, putting money into a low-cost, widely diversified index fund makes sense. No, it’s not going to work all the time – no investing strategy does – but it is hard to shrug off the long-term evidence of superior performance.

John Huber at Saber Capital Management, is often asked what his edge, or advantage, is. “Institutional investors seem especially interested in this question, and the edge that they are almost always looking for is some form of informational edge or insight that the rest of the market isn’t aware of,”......The problem is that such edges don’t exist any more. Oceans of financial and corporate information are available to any professional investor. Legions of professionals pore over that data, looking for reasons to buy or sell. Nobody knows more than anyone else – at least, not legally.......The only sustainable edge, Mr. Huber argues, is maintaining a different time horizon than the overall market.....
active_investing  commoditization_of_information  disappointment  index_funds  informational_advantages  investors  Ken_Fisher  lessons  money_management  passive_investing  slight_edge  time_horizons 
october 2019 by jerryking
JAB chair Bart Becht quits in split with partners
January 14, 2019 | Financial Times | Leila Abboud in Paris and Arash Massoudi.

Bart Becht's departure is the first outward display of tensions within JAB, created to manage the wealth of Germany’s billionaire Reimann family. The chairman of JAB Holdings, the acquisition-hungry owner of Pret A Manger and Keurig Dr Pepper, has quit after a five-year $50bn takeover spree led to a split with his two partners over the scale of the investment group’s dealmaking.

According to two people with direct knowledge of his decision, Bart Becht, a hard-charging 62-year-old consumer industry executive, stepped down after failing to convince JAB to scale back its takeover ambitions to focus on improving operations at its sprawling portfolio of companies.....The once-obscure investment vehicle has vaulted itself into the top tier of consumer products groups through acquisitions of high-profile US brands like Krispy Kreme, Peet’s Coffee and Covergirl owner Coty, competing directly with industry giants including Nestlé and Coca-Cola in coffee and L’Oreal in make-up......One person who has worked closely with JAB described Mr Becht’s decision as “undoubtedly a surprise”, especially since the trio of executives had only recently been raising money from outside investors and pitching themselves as long-term investors.

JAB operates in a similar way to a private equity investor, but with much longer time horizons. It is often willing to own portfolio companies for decades, often engineering an expansion via acquisitions.....The fundraising also coincided with a strategy shift as JAB exited investments in luxury and fashion to focus on what it calls premium food and beverage, casual dining, and coffee.
CPG  dealmakers  departures  exits  family_office  family-owned_businesses  hard-charging  investors  JAB  Keurig  private_equity  portfolio_management  time_horizons 
january 2019 by jerryking
Paul Singer, Doomsday Investor
August 27, 2018 | The New Yorker | By Sheelah Kolhatkar.

Paul Singer, ,
The head of hedge fund Elliott Management, has developed a uniquely adversarial, and immensely profitable, way of doing business.

Bush had co-founded Athenahealth, a platform that digitizes patient medical records and billing claims for hospitals and health-care providers, in 1999, and he had built it into an enterprise with more than a billion dollars in revenue. One of the firm’s marketing taglines was that it freed doctors and nurses to spend more time doing what they loved—practicing medicine—and less time on paperwork. Athena served more than a hundred thousand health-care providers...... Paul Singer, the founder of Elliott Management and one of the most powerful, and most unyielding, investors in the world. Singer, who is seventy-three, with a trim white beard and oval spectacles, is deeply involved in everything Elliott does. The firm has many kinds of investments, but Singer is best known as an “activist” investor, using his fund’s resources—about thirty-five billion dollars—to buy stock in companies in which it detects weaknesses. Elliott then pressures the company to make changes to its business, with the goal of improving the stock price.....Hedge funds, especially activist hedge funds, are established users of private-investigation services.....The investor acknowledged that Bush was far from perfect, and said that “there is a role for activists to hold managements accountable.” But the investor worried that the focus on the bottom line would undermine the innovative spirit that had made Athena successful. “.....The idea that companies exist solely to serve the interests of shareholders—rather than also to serve workers, customers, and the larger community—has been dominant in the business world in the past thirty years. As the field of activist investing becomes increasingly crowded, many investors are going beyond their original mission of finding ailing or mismanaged companies and pushing them to improve. Instead, some have been targeting larger, financially prosperous companies, such as Procter & Gamble, Apple, and PepsiCo. ......Often, activists advocate for measures that drive up the stock price but can have negative effects in the future, such as the outsourcing of jobs, the elimination of research and development, and the borrowing of money to buy back a company’s own stock. The wisdom of these tactics has come under increasing scrutiny. Some of the most successful businesses to emerge in recent decades have staved off short-term pressures, forcing their investors to be patient with uncertainty and experimentation. The founder of Amazon, Jeff Bezos, wrote in an early investor letter that building something new “requires you to experiment patiently, accept failures, plant seeds, protect saplings.” ........Over time, this lack of long-term vision alters the economy—with profound political implications. Businesses are the engine of a country’s employment and wealth creation; when they cater only to stockholders, expenditures on employees’ behalf, whether for raises, job training, or new facilities, come to be seen as a poor use of funds. Eventually, this can result in fewer secure jobs, widening inequality, and political polarization. ..........Bush spoke about his last day in the office, when he had sobbed during his final address to Athena’s employees. He had also written a farewell letter. “I believe that working for something larger than yourself is the greatest thing a human can do. A family, a cause, a company, a country—these things give shape and purpose to an otherwise mechanical and brief human existence,” the letter read. “The downside about things that are larger than ourselves, of course, is that we who have the privilege of serving them ourselves are fungible. It is the fundamental definition. You can’t have the grace of the one without the other......Throughout our conversations, Bush returned to a theme that consumed him. He talked about how investors like Singer—financiers who take the assets built by others and manipulate them like puzzle pieces to make money for themselves—are affecting the country on a grand scale. A healthy country, he said, needs economic biodiversity, with companies of different sizes chasing innovation, or embarking on long, hard projects, without being punished. The disproportionate power of the Wall Street investor class, Bush felt, dampened all that, and gradually made the economy, and most of the people in it, more fragile.
distressed_debt  Elliott_Management  financiers  hard_goals  hard_work  hedge_funds  investors  long-term  patience  Paul_Singer  profile  shareholder_activism  Sheelah_Kolhatkar  time_horizons  vulture_investing  Wall_Street 
august 2018 by jerryking
Rich People
“Rich People plan for three generations
Poor people plan for Saturday night”

― Gloria Steinem
tags: class-distinction, inspirational
affluence  quotes  generational_wealth  personal_finance  social_classes  beforemath  forward_looking  foresight  preparation  time_horizons  Gloria_Steinem 
october 2017 by jerryking
20 Years On, Amazon and Jeff Bezos Prove Naysayers Wrong - The New York Times
Andrew Ross Sorkin
DEALBOOK MAY 15, 2017

Twenty years ago this week, Amazon.com went public........Here we are, 20 years later, and Mr. Bezos has an authentic, legitimate claim on having changed the way we live.

He has changed the way we shop. He has changed the way companies use computers, by moving much of their information and systems to cloud services. He’s even changed the way we interact with computers by voice: “Alexa!”......he has bought — and fixed — The Washington Post,.........Most executives are worried about the next quarter, but Mr. Bezos is worried about what will happen years from now. That is a competitive advantage that many chief executives could learn from.

“If everything you do needs to work on a three-year time horizon, then you’re competing against a lot of people,” Mr. Bezos told Wired in 2011. Here, he was expressing the view that some chief executives think in three-year cycles — a relatively generous assessment, given that most top executives don’t last many more years than that.

“But,” he continued, “if you’re willing to invest on a seven-year time horizon, you’re now competing against a fraction of those people, because very few companies are willing to do that.”....Is Mr. Bezos an easy boss? Hardly. He is unbelievably demanding. ......I’m supposed to hate Mr. Bezos. After all, he has pressured publishers, cut their margins and practically put old-school bookstores out of business. As if to rub it in, he’s now introducing bricks-and-mortar Amazon bookstores.

But to take that view would be to misunderstand what innovation looks like. It upends industries — witness the current carnage in the retail industry, which has been outmoded by Amazon and all the companies trying to copy it.

“Amazon is not happening to book selling,” Mr. Bezos explained, defending his role in a 2013 interview with Charlie Rose. “The future is happening to book selling.” And the future is now happening to retail stores and even supermarkets — Mr. Bezos’ next conquest. And the future is clearly happening to enterprise computing.
Andrew_Sorkin  Jeff_Bezos  Amazon  WaPo  newspapers  e-commerce  anniversaries  moguls  trailblazers  time_horizons  cloud_computing  Alexa  long-term  Warren_Buffett  innovation 
may 2017 by jerryking
Peter Thiel on Why Big Companies Don’t Think Like Startups - WSJ - WSJ
November 3, 2014 | WSJ | Interview of Peter Thiel by Mr. Dennis K. Berman.

Changing the World
MR. BERMAN: The term you use in your book is that a startup is an excuse to change the world. How do people inside big companies take that idea and make something of it? MR. THIEL: There are a number of larger companies that are still innovating fairly aggressively. I’m very biased, as an investor, to be pro-companies that are still led by the founders. The founders are often able to make more choices and take more risk and have more inspiration than more politically minded CEOs. The old founders don’t always live forever, that’s true. You need a figure that’s as close to a founder as possible.

In theory, large companies could do far more than small companies. They have more capital. They have longer time horizons. They can take more risks. I tend to think it’s always that the internal politics somehow get in the way.
bubbles  founders  internal_politics  large_companies  office_politics  Peter_Thiel  risk-taking  Silicon_Valley  start_ups  time_horizons  valuations  vc  venture_capital 
november 2014 by jerryking
What Machines Can’t Do - NYTimes.com
FEB. 3, 2014 | NYT | David Brooks.
here is what robots can't do -- create art, deep meaning, move our souls, help us to understand and thus operate in the world, inspire deeper thought, care for one another, help the environment where we live
========================================================================
We’re clearly heading into an age of brilliant technology.computers are increasingly going to be able to perform important parts of even mostly cognitive jobs, like picking stocks, diagnosing diseases and granting parole.

As this happens, certain mental skills will become less valuable because computers will take over (e.g. memorization)

what human skills will be more valuable? The age of brilliant machines seems to reward a few traits. First, it rewards enthusiasm, people driven to perform extended bouts of concentration, diving into and trying to make sense of these bottomless information oceans. Second, the era seems to reward people with extended time horizons and strategic discipline. Third, the age seems to reward procedural architects (e.g. Facebook, Twitter, Wikipedia, etc. , people who can design an architecture/platform that allows other people to express ideas or to collaborate. Fourth, people who can organize a decentralized network around a clear question, without letting it dissipate or clump, will have enormous value. Fifth, essentialists will probably be rewarded--the ability to grasp the essence of one thing, and then the essence of some very different thing, and smash them together to create some entirely new thing. Sixth, the computer is the computer. The role of the human is not to be dispassionate, depersonalized or neutral. It is precisely the emotive traits that are rewarded: the voracious lust for understanding, the enthusiasm for work, the ability to grasp the gist, the empathetic sensitivity to what will attract attention and linger in the mind. Unable to compete when it comes to calculation, the best workers will come with heart in hand.
David_Brooks  Erik_Brynjolfsson  future-proofing  career_paths  MIT  problem_solving  persuasion  Andrew_McAfee  Communicating_&_Connecting  indispensable  skills  Managing_Your_Career  21st._century  new_graduates  focus  long-term  self-discipline  lateral_thinking  sense-making  platforms  emotions  empathy  time_horizons 
february 2014 by jerryking
Endowments: Ivory-towering infernos
Dec 11th 2008 | The Economist |From the print edition.

As Mr Swensen explains in his influential book, “Pioneering Portfolio Management: An Unconventional Approach to Institutional Investment”, which was published in 2000, the “permanent” endowments of universities (and of some charitable foundations) meant that they could be the ultimate long-term investors, able to ride out market downturns and liquidity droughts.

By investing heavily in illiquid assets, rather than the publicly traded shares and bonds preferred by shorter-term investors, an institution with an unlimited time horizon would earn a substantial illiquidity premium.
Yale  Harvard  time_horizons  endowments  Colleges_&_Universities  illiquidity  alternative_investments  private_equity  institutional_investors  long-term  books 
february 2013 by jerryking
Deals Close Faster With Due Diligence Filters
May 1, 2000 | Venture Capital Journal | William Zucker.

From Introduction capital's 7th annual Canadian Alternative Investment Forum

Values and ensuring ethical alignment, time horizon or milestone alignment.
Bewares partners piggybacking continuously on your DD.
Can your involvement add value to a project? If not personally, are there people in your network who cans how you holes that you cannot see?

Look at the financial return, the quality of the asset, the quality of management.
due_diligence  deal-making  venture_capital  vc  start_ups  business_planning  trends  CAIF  speed  time_horizons 
september 2012 by jerryking
Food hubs offer a strategic path toward profitable sustainability — Transition Voice
By Naomi Starkman November 11, 2011

Investment opportunities

In order to build a successful food hub, start-up capital is often needed to renovate facilities for aggregation, storage, packing, light processing, and distribution.

In addition, working capital is necessary for business management systems to coordinate supply chain logistics. Financial support is also needed for enterprise development training and technical assistance to increase grower capacity to meet wholesale buyer requirements.

“As with any infrastructure-heavy project, a food hub will likely require several different forms of capital to launch successfully,” said Elizabeth Ü, Founder and Executive Director of Finance for Food, and author of the forthcoming book, Finance for Food: A Sustainable Food Entrepreneur’s Guide to Raising Mission-Aligned Capital.

Ü noted that a food hub might need to structure a variety of points of entry to appeal to potential investors, who may have different risk tolerances, time horizons, and investment amounts. She said,

A little creativity can go a long way; in addition to USDA grants and traditional loans, there are several innovative investment models that food entrepreneurs are using to raise capital, including revenue-sharing agreements, advance sales, and crowdfunding. The challenge is finding a good fit between investment terms and the values of both the food hub management and each investor.

The USDA sees food hubs as ripe investment opportunities and is currently funding nearly 30 percent of the food hubs it surveyed. Preliminary analysis shows that food hubs have great economic potential and are a sound investment. The USDA is preparing a more comprehensive resource guide for food hubs to be released later this year. The guide will feature a mix of government and non-government resources available for food hub development.
farmers'_markets  entrepreneurship  finance  investors  risk-appetite  time_horizons 
february 2012 by jerryking
Pictet Partner Reflects on His Career and Asian Growth - WSJ.com
JUNE 8, 2010 | WSJ | by DUNCAN MAVIN. WSJ: What has surprised
you most about Asia's private-banking industry?

Mr. Pictet: I am impressed by the tremendous ability of Asian
high-net-worth individuals to create wealth through their business
networks. They didn't just survive the last few financial market crises
relatively unscathed, but also demonstrated their remarkable capability
to replenish their liquidity in a very short time frame.

WSJ: What's the difference between high-net-worth investors and the rest
of us?

Mr. Pictet: Generally, if you are talking to high-net-worth clients
familiar with financial markets on a world-wide basis, they tend to
target a return on investment with a shorter time horizon. They
personally get involved in decision-making rather than giving a mandate
to professional managers, and assume a somewhat higher risk profile with
frequent use of leveraging.
private_banking  high_net_worth  Asians  leverage  personal_involvement  risk-taking  ROI  time_horizons  holding_periods 
june 2010 by jerryking
"The Hidden River of Knowledge"
May 21, 2007 | New York Times | Commencement address by David Brooks.

In short, things are about to change big time. And one of my messages today is that you know that uncertainty you feel today? It never goes away. The question is, do you know how to make uncertainty your friend?....here's one other thing I've noticed that separates the really great people from the merely famous ones. They talk to dead people.

Merely famous people have pictures of themselves on the wall. Really great people have pictures of dead people on the wall, and on their desks. It's one of the first things I look for when I go into somebody's office...And they talk about these dead people....
The dead were alive to them, and looking over their shoulder....The Greeks used to say we suffer our way to wisdom...Success is not something that we do or that happens to us. Success is something that happens through us....We inherit, starting even before we are born, a great river of knowledge, a great flow from many ages and many sources. The information that comes from millions of years ago, we call brain chemistry. The information that comes from hundreds of thousands of years ago from our hunter and gatherer ancestors we call genes. The information that was handed down thousands of years ago we call religion. The information passed along hundreds of years ago we call culture. The information passed along from decades ago we call family. The information you absorbed over the past few years at Wake Forest we call education....We exist as creatures within this hidden river of knowledge the way a trout exists in a stream or a river. We are formed by the river. It is the medium in which we live and the guide about how to live.

The great people I've seen talking to the dead do so because they want to connect with the highest and most inspiring parts of the river. When people make mistakes, often it is not because they are evil. It's because they don't have an ideal to live up to.

These great people also talk to the dead because they want a voice from outside their selves....the best people I've met don't feel that smart or that special. They have powerful jobs, but they don't feel powerful. They don't feel like architects building these great projects from scratch. They feel instead like river boat captains negotiating the currents around them.

They want to step outside their egotism and understand the river of events. They want to feel how people in the past have negotiated its channels. They want other voices in their heads so they can possess the ultimate power, which is the power of facing unpleasant truths.

Finally, I think they talk to the dead because they want to widen their time horizons....Think hard about who you marry. It's the most important decision you will ever make. Devote yourself to your kids. Nothing else is guaranteed to make you happy. The only thing I'd add is, create a posse of dead people. Create an entourage of heroes. Put their pictures on your wall, and keep them in your mind.

They will remind you of your place in the hidden river of wisdom. They'll serve as models. They'll give you an honest perspective on how you're doing. They'll remind you that your blessings don't come from you but from those who came before you.
advice  affirmations  ancestry  blog  brain_chemistry  career  cognitive_skills  commencement  culture  cultural_transmission  David_Brooks  education  family  genes  Greek  hidden  happiness  heroes  humility  hunter-gatherers  ideas  inspiration  Managing_Your_Career  marriage  perspectives  role_models  sense_of_proportion  speeches  success  suffering  the_counsel_of_the_dead  time_horizons  transcendental  uncertainty  Wake_Forest  wide-framing  wisdom 
november 2009 by jerryking

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