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jerryking : tradeoffs   31

The myth of green growth
October 24, 2019 | | Financial Times | by Simon Kuper.

voters tend to place their personal interests ahead of their political ideals.
aviation  carbon_emissions  climate_catastrophe  climate_change  de-growth  electric_cars  energy  environment  fuel-efficiency  green  growth  myths  One_Belt_One_Road  reality_checks  renewable  shipping  Simon_Kuper  society  tradeoffs  William_Jevons 
october 2019 by jerryking
Why 4 a.m. Is the Most Productive Hour
August 23, 2016 | WSJ | By Hilary Potkewitz.

Most people who wake up at 4 a.m. do it because they have to—farmers, flight attendants, currency traders and postal workers. Others rise before dawn because they want to......Even though he knows productivity experts say doing email first thing in the morning expends prime mental energy on busywork, Mr. Perry says clearing his inbox curbs his anxiety. “I feel I get a head start on everybody,” he says......Executives have often touted the benefits of an early morning start. Apple chief executive Tim Cook, known for being among first in the office and the last to leave, starts his morning routine at 3:45 a.m. And Sallie Krawcheck, chief executive of Ellevest and former Wall Street executive, has written, “I’m never more productive than at 4 a.m.”

Non-executive early birds aren’t necessarily workaholic. They hope to avoid the distractions of technology and social media. Those who work from home want a jump start on their day before other demands intrude. Some are seeking solitude and quiet.

==============================================
A couple of quick questions:
1. When is date night during the week so that the relationship these people are in survives?
2. When are these early birds doing homework with their kids or reviewing for a test?
3. Which evening activities, i.e. school play, etc. are these chaps missing?
4. What business meetings or marketing functions are these obviously fit fellows able to avoid by their schedule without a detriment to their well rounded careers?

It is all a trade off...
distractions  early_risers  focus  productivity  Sallie_Krawcheck  self-care  sleep  solitude  Tim_Cook  tradeoffs 
june 2019 by jerryking
Opinion | Robert E. Rubin: Philosophy Prepared Me for a Career in Finance and Government - The New York Times
By Robert E. Rubin

Mr. Rubin was secretary of the Treasury from 1995 to 1999.

April 30, 2018

Raphael Demos. Professor Demos, an authority on Greek philosophy, was Harvard’s Alford Professor of Natural Religion, Moral Philosophy and Civil Policy. But to me, when I took a class with him my sophomore year, he was a genial little man with white hair and an exceptional talent for engaging students from the lecture hall stage, using an overturned wastebasket as his lectern. Professor Demos would use Plato and other great philosophers to demonstrate that proving any proposition to be true in the final and ultimate sense was impossible. His approach to critical thinking planted a seed in me that grew during my years at Harvard and throughout my life. The approach appealed to what was probably my natural but latent tendency toward questioning and skepticism.

I concluded that you can’t prove anything in absolute terms, from which I extrapolated that all significant decisions are about probabilities. Internalizing the core tenet of Professor Demos’s teaching — weighing risk and analyzing odds and trade-offs — was central to everything I did professionally in the decades ahead in finance and government.......Demos crystallized for me the power of critical thinking: asking questions, recognizing that there are no provable certainties and analyzing the probabilities. And that, coupled with my coffeehouse lessons, was the best preparation one could have — not just for a career but also for life.
Robert_Rubin  Colleges_&_Universities  Harvard  philosophers  philosophy  Plato  Wall_Street  Goldman_Sachs  career_paths  advice  life_skills  probabilities  decision_making  critical_thinking  U.S.Treasury_Department  Greek  tradeoffs 
may 2018 by jerryking
The Six Laws of Technology Everyone Should Know WSJ
Nov. 26, 2017 | WSJ |By Christopher Mims.

1. ‘Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral’ Melvin Kranzberg in the 1960s. He became a technology historian. Prof. Kranzberg’s first law is also his most important. He realized that the impact of a technology depends on its geographic and cultural context, which means it is often good and bad—at the same time. (E.g. DDT, a pesticide and probable carcinogen nonetheless saved the lives of hundreds of thousands of people in India as a cheap and effective malaria prevention. Or, Facebook groups, serve as a lifeline for parents of children with rare diseases while also radicalizing political extremists. Tech companies' enormous power means they have an obligation to try to anticipate the potential impact of anything they produce.....however, the dirty little secret of highly accomplished people is what we’ve had to neglect to achieve that,” (JK: tradeoffs) “To become spectacular at any discipline in technology means you’re not well-equipped to address these questions.”

2. ‘Invention is the mother of necessity.’ Yes, that’s backward from the way you remember it. It means “every technical innovation seems to require additional technical advances in order to make it fully effective,” In our modern world, the invention of the smartphone has led to the necessity for countless other technologies, from phone cases to 5G wireless. Apple’s cure for staring at your phone too much? A smartwatch to glance at 100 times a day.

3. ‘Technology comes in packages, big and small. To understand any part of a technological package requires looking at its interaction with and dependency on the rest of it—including the human beings essential to how it functions. While innovation destroys jobs, it also creates countless new ones.

4. ‘Although technology might be a prime element in many public issues, nontechnical factors take precedence in technology-policy decisions.’ “People think technology as an abstraction has some sort of intrinsic power, and it doesn’t,” “It has to be motivated by political power or cultural power or something else.”

Craig Federighi, Apple senior vice president, software engineering, spoke about differential privacy, which Apple says is a way to collect user data while protecting the individual’s anonymity.
More broadly, lawmakers are taking an interest in everything from privacy and data transparency to national security and antitrust issues in tech—more because of a shift in our culture than in the technology itself.

5. ‘All history is relevant, but the history of technology is the most relevant.’ The Cold War led to the buildup of nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them anywhere on Earth. That led to the development of a war-proof communication system: the internet..... But does that mean we owe the modern world to the existential contest between the U.S. and the former U.S.S.R.? Or was that conflict itself driven by previous technological developments that allowed Hitler to threaten both nations?

6. ‘Technology is a very human activity.’ “Technology is capable of doing great things,” .....how we use technology is up to us. The trick is, because technology generally reaches mass adoption via corporations, those businesses must think of the consequences of their actions as well as how they profit from them. When corporations don’t, regulators, journalists and the public sometimes do it for them.

As Prof. Kranzberg presciently noted at the dawn of the internet age, “Many of our technology-related problems arise because of the unforeseen consequences when apparently benign technologies are employed on a massive scale.”
anonymity  anticipating  Christopher_Mims  Cold_War  contextual  cultural_power  differential_privacy  high-achieving  necessity  nuclear  overachievers  political_power  privacy  problems  scaling  technology  tradeoffs  unforeseen  unintended_consequences 
november 2017 by jerryking
The world wild web; The future
These days advertisers are feeling less certain of themselves. They are still trying to come to grips with the radical changes technology has brought to the way advertising is consumed, sold and perso...
future  advertising  privacy  personalization  David_Ogilvy  tradeoffs 
february 2017 by jerryking
The four-burners theory of success - The Globe and Mail
HARVEY SCHACHTER
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, Jul. 14, 2016
Harvey_Schachter  work_life_balance  tradeoffs 
july 2016 by jerryking
How to Handle Growing Pains In Your Church
February 20, 2014
How to Handle Growing Pains In Your Church
By Pastor Rick Warren

"There is no growth without change. And there is no change without loss. And there is no loss without pain. "
growth  churches  quotes  Rick_Warren  pain_points  organizational_change  tradeoffs 
june 2016 by jerryking
The Danger of a Single Story - The New York Times
David Brooks APRIL 19, 2016

American politics has always been prone to single storyism — candidates reducing complex issues to simple fables. This year the problem is acute because Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are the giants of Single Storyism. They reduce pretty much all issues to the same single story: the alien invader story....As in life generally, every policy has the vices of its virtues. Aggressive policing cuts crime but increases brutality. There is no escape from trade-offs and tragic situations. The only way forward is to elect people who are capable of holding opposing stories in their heads at the same time, and to reject those who can’t....As F. Scott Fitzgerald once said, “The test of a first-rate mind is the ability to hold two diametrically opposed ideas in your head at the same time.”"
David_Brooks  storytelling  public_policy  single_action_bias  critical_thinking  history  philosophy  skepticism  tradeoffs  oversimplification  criminal_justice_system  incarceration  narratives  dual-consciousness  F._Scott_Fitzgerald 
april 2016 by jerryking
You Need an Innovation Strategy
JUNE 2015 | HBR | Gary P. Pisano.

Without an innovation strategy, innovation improvement efforts can easily become a grab bag of much-touted best practices: dividing R&D into decentralized autonomous teams, spawning internal entrepreneurial ventures, setting up corporate venture-capital arms, pursuing external alliances, embracing open innovation and crowdsourcing, collaborating with customers, and implementing rapid prototyping, to name just a few. There is nothing wrong with any of those practices per se. The problem is that an organization’s capacity for innovation stems from an innovation system: a coherent set of interdependent processes and structures that dictates how the company searches for novel problems and solutions, synthesizes ideas into a business concept and product designs, and selects which projects get funded. Individual best practices involve trade-offs. And adopting a specific practice generally requires a host of complementary changes to the rest of the organization’s innovation system. A company without an innovation strategy won’t be able to make trade-off decisions and choose all the elements of the innovation system........Long-term investments in research are risky: .....
Rather, a robust innovation strategy should answer the following questions:

** How will innovation create value for potential customers?
**How will the company capture a share of the value its innovations generate?
**What types of innovations will allow the company to create and capture value, and what resources should each type receive?

There are four essential tasks in creating and implementing an innovation strategy. The first is to answer the question “How are we expecting innovation to create value for customers and for our company?” and then explain that to the organization. The second is to create a high-level plan for allocating resources to the different kinds of innovation. Ultimately, where you spend your money, time, and effort is your strategy, regardless of what you say. The third is to manage trade-offs. Because every function will naturally want to serve its own interests, only senior leaders can make the choices that are best for the whole company.

The final challenge facing senior leadership is recognizing that innovation strategies must evolve. Any strategy represents a hypothesis that is tested against the unfolding realities of markets, technologies, regulations, and competitors.
best_practices  Corning  corporate_investors  crowdsourcing  decision_making  HBR  howto  innovation  organizational_capacity  questions  R&D  resource_allocation  strategy  taxonomy  tradeoffs 
april 2016 by jerryking
‘Being Mortal’ Explores the Benefits of Setting Goals for Death - NYTimes.com
OCT. 6, 2014 | NYT |By ABIGAIL ZUGER, M.D.

Being Mortal
Medicine and What Matters in the End.
By Atul Gawande, M.D.
Metropolitan Books. 282 pages. $26. Credit Alessandra Montalto/The New York Times

Another is the author’s palpable enthusiasm as he learns that many of the most difficult conversations doctors should have with their patients can be initiated with only a few questions. (What are your fears? Your hopes? The trade-offs you will and will not make?) One suspects a new checklist may be in the offing.
Atul_Gawande  books  book_reviews  stressful  conversations  end-of-life  tradeoffs  questions  medical_communication  difficult_conversations  checklists  what_really_matters 
october 2014 by jerryking
Old like me. Why elderly care needs more risk - The Globe and Mail
Saskia Sivananthan

Contributed to The Globe and Mail

Published Sunday, Mar. 23 2014

We must rethink our approach to managing risk in nursing homes, especially when doing so means limiting residents’ freedom to choose their own way.

It’s a poignant reminder of the daily challenges staff and residents at every nursing home face. They are also part of a theme that played into almost every aspect of my stay: How do you balance safety with autonomy for residents?

Safety is clearly important; often people move to nursing homes precisely because they can no longer manage living without 24-hour care. At the same time, this tightrope balance invokes the fear paramount in most people’s mind when they think about institutional living – losing their autonomy, not choking on breakfast.

The regulations for long-term care in most provinces prioritize medical needs and safety over autonomy. Public reporting of quality indicators at long-term care homes include safety as one of five attributes of a high-performing system – but autonomy is not considered.....we take these calculated risks every day: slicing bread, crossing the street, staying up late. Suddenly being regarded as unable to make decisions you’ve made all your life contributes to a feeling of disempowerment. In our attempt to remove all risk in nursing homes we have ended up with regulations that are so extreme that residents may no longer have autonomy or feel at home....Many of the new models of long-term care homes coming out of Europe have embraced this concept of calculated risk. There is a much lauded dementia village Hogeweyk in the Netherlands.....Denmark also focuses on autonomy. Nursing homes there are truly run as ‘homes’ rather than institutions, with the result that residents become family. One facility of 23 residents, 70 per cent of whom have dementia, takes Caribbean vacations together. Imagine the risk.

We must rethink our approach to managing risk in nursing homes, especially when doing so means limiting residents’ freedom to choose their own way.

One writer described a nursing home in Denmark as a place where “…old people could drink, laugh and love themselves into death.” When I have to go back to a nursing home, that’s where I want to go.
aging  elderly  free_will  freedom  nursing_homes  safety  autonomy  tradeoffs  disempowerment  risks  risk-taking  counterintuitive 
march 2014 by jerryking
Amazon's Greatest Weapon: Jeff Bezos's Paranoia - WSJ.com
Nov. 13, 2013 | WSJ | By Farhad Manjoo.

What could Mr. Bezos possibly have to fear? Impermanence. Mr. Bezos is in an industry, retail sales, in which every innovation is instantly pored over and copied, in which (thanks partly to him) margins are constantly driven to zero, and in which customers are governed by passing fancy and whim. Being online confers fantastic advantages to Amazon, but it also comes at a deep cost: Very little about its business is burned into customers' minds.

Hence, frenzy: Amazon is in a race to embed itself into the fabric of world-wide commerce in a way that would make it indispensable to everyone's shopping habits—and to do so before its rivals wise up to its plans
Amazon  contra-Amazon  e-commerce  Fedex  habits  impermanence  Jeff_Bezos  network_effects  paranoia  retailers  shopping_experience  speed  staying_hungry  tradeoffs  transient  UPS  USPS  whims  shopping_habits 
november 2013 by jerryking
Why We Love Politics - NYTimes.com
November 22, 2012 | NYT | By DAVID BROOKS.

I hope everybody who shares this anti-political mood will go out to see “Lincoln,” directed by Steven Spielberg and written by Tony Kushner. The movie portrays the nobility of politics in exactly the right way.

It shows that you can do more good in politics than in any other sphere. You can end slavery, open opportunity and fight poverty. But you can achieve these things only if you are willing to stain your own character in order to serve others — if you are willing to bamboozle, trim, compromise and be slippery and hypocritical.

The challenge of politics lies precisely in the marriage of high vision and low cunning. Spielberg’s “Lincoln” gets this point. The hero has a high moral vision, but he also has the courage to take morally hazardous action in order to make that vision a reality.
Abraham_Lincoln  compromise  cunning  David_Brooks  hypocrisy  moral_hazards  movies  politics  political_expediency  public_policy  serving_others  tradeoffs 
november 2012 by jerryking
Jacqueline Novogratz of Acumen Fund, on Pairs of Values - NYTimes.com
By ADAM BRYANT
Published: September 29, 2012

Q. Tell me about your approach to leadership.

A. I think we so often equate leadership with being experts — the leader is supposed to come in and fix things. But in this interconnected world we live in now, it’s almost impossible for just one person to do that.

So if we could only have more leaders who would start by just listening, just trying to understand what’s going wrong from the perspective of the people you’re supposed to serve — whether it’s your customers or people for whom you want the world to change.

Leaders can get stuck in groupthink because they’re really not listening, or they’re listening only to what they want to listen to, or they actually think they’re so right that they’re not interested in listening. And that leads to a lot of suboptimal solutions in the world.

The kind of leaders we need — and certainly that I aspire to be — reject ideology, reject trite assumptions, reject the status quo, and are really open to listening to solutions from people who are most impacted by the problems. ...We think about our values in pairs, and there is a tension or a balance between them. We talk about listening and leadership; accountability and generosity; humility and audacity. You’ve got to have the humility to see the world as it is — and in our world, working with poor communities, that’s not easy to do — but have the audacity to know why you are trying to make it be different, to imagine the way it could be. And then the immutable values are respect and integrity.
leadership  Acumen  opposing_actions  organizational_culture  values  social_capital  venture_capital  vc  accountability  generosity  humility  audacity  groupthink  listening  respect  integrity  pairs  tradeoffs  tension  dual-consciousness 
october 2012 by jerryking
Debunking the myths about post-Sept. 11 Canada
October 2, 2001 By EDWARD GREENSPON.

The high anxiety, even hysteria, that marked the early days after the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon has given way to more sober deliberations about the new, post-Sept. ll reality. But that hasn't stopped the growing circulation of a distressing array of myth, historical revision and downright soft thinking. A quartet of examples:
The soft thinking of a sovereignty-versus-security tradeoffs. There's no doubt that Canada enjoys the sovereignty to maintain weak defences against terrorism just as the United States enjoys the sovereignty to clamp down on the border between us. It certainly would represent a resoundingly dumb use of Canadian sovereignty to both ignore the security of Canadians and imperil access to the American market. Being different from the Americans is not by definition an affirmation of sovereignty. Doing what is right by us -- now there's a mature exercise of sovereignty.
Unfortunately, the government has played into this false dichotomy of sovereignty versus security by thumping its chest that nobody will be allowed to dictate terms to Canada. The better approach from the start would have been to say that Canada intends to exercise its sovereignty by raising our security standards to the highest level in the world. That might require pooling some sovereignty with the United States but only in the greater interest of protecting Canadians. And nothing prevents us from keeping out prohibited firearms.
myths  9/11  Canada  Edward_Greenspon  tradeoffs 
september 2012 by jerryking
Elect your local hypocrite
June 12, 2004 | G&M | Doug Saunders.

Hypocrisy now has the backing of science. Keith Stanovich, a cognitive scientist at the University of Toronto, has built a strong scientific case in defence of hypocn'sy

Mr. Stanovich, in his fascinating book The Robot's Rebellion, defines hypocrisy as the collision of first-order and second-order thought. First-order thought consists of the basic, animal desires promoted by our genes — reproduction, self-preservation, mate-finding, nest-building, self-aggrandizement and personal defence

People whose thoughts are mostly first-order are known as wantons: Their personal desires and aspirations are their only goals, and their principles consist of remaking the world to suit those goals People who vote for right-wing parties entirely because they want to pay less tax are wantons. So are people who vote for left-wing parties just because they want their organizations to get more grants.

Second-order thought looks beyond personal needs into rational calculations of larger principles and goals: If I give up this desire right now, it says, we all could be better off. It is higher, more principled intelligence. It constantly battles with our first-order desires, tending to require an even higher order of thought to reconcile those collisions. in Mr. Stanovich's system, the people who engage in this kind of thinking are known as strong evaluators.
Hypocrisy is a product of strong evaluation.
Doug_Saunders  decision_making  politics  hypocrisy  thinking  political_expediency  instant_gratification  delayed_gratification  wisdom  books  first-order  second-order  tradeoffs  self-preservation  mate-finding  nest-building  self-aggrandizement 
september 2012 by jerryking
Hierarchy of Company Statements
April 2008 | HBR |by David J. Collis and Michael G. Rukstad.

The trade-offs companies make are what distinguish them strategically from other firms.
HBR  mission_statements  definitions  company  tradeoffs  vision  values  strategy  balanced_scorecard  hierarchies 
june 2012 by jerryking
Ride to the rescue of workers
Aug. 15 2007 | The Globe and Mail | JIM STANFORD. Economist with the Canadian Auto Workers Union

So imagine how surprised I was at the bank's rapid, powerful interventions into financial markets recently, issuing more than $4-billion in new low-cost loans in just three trading days to soothe frazzled nerves and keep the easy-credit machine out of the ditch. And it signalled in no uncertain terms there was plenty more where that came from.

Far from sitting back watching the economy "adjust to change," this drama featured the central bank as cavalry - charging over the hill just as the hedge-fund artists were making their last stand. Seems the prospect of bankrupt speculators tossed onto the street, forced to find real work, isn't the kind of change the bank has in mind. Now, don't get me wrong: What the bank did was prudent and important....This selective, one-sided approach to stabilization speaks volumes about the nature of the bank as an institution, and the biases of the inflation-targeting regime it espouses so passionately. The Bank of Canada is not a neutral, prescient team of technocrats, guiding us to some imaginary point of maximum efficiency. Like any other political body, its opinions and actions reflect value judgments about the relative importance of differing, sometimes conflicting, goals and interests. Job creation versus inflation control. Consumer inflation versus stock-market inflation. Financial troubles versus industrial troubles.

So, Governor Dodge, please carry on with your dramatic rescue mission. Just spread a little of that rescue around to the rest of us next time.
bailouts  Bank_of_Canada  biases  bubbles  business-government_relations  CAW  central_banks  economists  financial_crises  financial_markets  institutions  Jim_Stanford  layoffs  manufacturers  pairs  politics  tradeoffs  values  value_judgements 
june 2012 by jerryking
The Founders Dilemma
February 2008 | HBR | Noam Wasserman.

Most entrepreneurs want to make pots of money and run the show. But Wasserman reveals that it’s tough to do both. If you don’t figure out which matters most to you, you could end up being neither rich
nor in control. Consider: To make a lot of money from a
new venture, you need financial resources to capitalize on the opportunities before you. That means attracting investors—
which requires relinquishing control as you give away equity and as investors alter your board’s membership. To remain in charge
of your business, you have to keep more equity. But that means fewer financial resources to fuel your venture. So, you must choose between money and power. Begin by articulating your primary motivation for starting a business. Then understand the trade-offs associated with
that goal. As your venture unfolds, you’ll make choices that support—rather than jeopardize—your dreams.
HBR  entrepreneur  start_ups  tradeoffs  founders  challenges  managerial_preferences  investors  boards_&_directors_&_governance  equity 
november 2011 by jerryking
Executive Learns From Hack - WSJ.com
JUNE 21, 2011 By EVAN RAMSTAD.

• Trust the authorities.
• Stay open and transparent."
• Learn IT and know where vulnerabilities are. "These days, the CEO
should understand the basic structure of hacking even though he cannot
do programming. A CEO has to make tradeoffs and organizational
decisions.
• Create a philosophy that drives IT decisions. "Up to a few years ago,
the hacking route was very simple. But these days, there are so many
holes. Smartphone applications, so many websites … so the CEO has many
decisions to make.
• Reassess plans for products and services. Understand that each
application creates a new route for hacking. The real cost is not the
development cost. It's also the cost of hacking exposure.
Hyundai  South_Korea  blackmail  consumer_finance  IT  lessons_learned  cyber_security  product_development  product_management  hacks  data_breaches  vulnerabilities  new_products  hidden  latent  tradeoffs  CEOs 
june 2011 by jerryking
The New Normal - NYTimes.com
February 28, 2011 | NYT | By DAVID BROOKS. The U.S. is going
to be doing a lot of deficit cutting over the next several years. The
country’s future greatness will be shaped by whether those cuts are made
wisely or stupidly. Brooks proffers the following principles to guide
the cuts.
#1. Make Everybody Hurt. The sacrifice should be spread widely and
fairly.
#2. Make Conscious Tradeoffs. Trim from the old to invest in the young. We should adjust pension
promises and reduce the amount of $ spent on health care during the last
months of life so we can preserve programs for those who are growing
and learning the most.
# 3. Never cut without an evaluation process. Before legislators and
governors chop a section of the budget, they should make a list of all
the relevant programs, grading each option and then start paying for
them from the top down.
cutbacks  deficits  effectiveness  fairness  Octothorpe_Software  David_Brooks  municipalities  decision_making  austerity  sacrifice  new_normal  tradeoffs  priorities  assessments_&_evaluations 
march 2011 by jerryking
Bright Future for Green Business - June 2009 -
June 2009 | Alumni Bulletin - Harvard Business School | BY
Sarah Auerbach. several systemic problems hold the green tech industry
back. One is a failure to think about the interrelationship of
resources: You can grow great biofuels, for example, but only if you
have an abundant supply of water. You can desalinate massive quantities
of water to solve your water problem, but only if you have abundant
energy.
HBS  alternative_energy  venture_capital  interconnections  tradeoffs 
august 2009 by jerryking
The tradeoff between financial innovation and risk - The Globe and Mail
BRIAN MILNER

From Tuesday's Globe and Mail Last updated on Wednesday, Jul. 15, 2009 04:26AM EDT

Justin Fox's detailed history of an idea gone awry, The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street (HarperCollins) , has the writer of Time's popular "Curious Capitalist" column trading quips with the likes of Jon Stewart on The Daily Show and sharing his thoughts with us on everything from learned investing lessons to the dangers of rapid financial innovation.
books  risks  innovation  financial  tradeoffs  financial_innovation  book_reviews 
july 2009 by jerryking
Recession Takes a Toll on Freelance Livelihoods - NYTimes.com
June 2, 2009 | New York Times | By EMILY BAZELON. At the
Freelancers Union, Sara Horowitz is pushing for a new kind of
unemployment protection fund that would cover the self-employed by
helping them put away money that they could draw on in times of need.
economic_downturn  freelancing  yoga  entrepreneurship  tradeoffs  self-employment  unemployment  gig_economy 
june 2009 by jerryking
Pandemics and Poor Information - WSJ.com
MAY 11, 2009 | Wall Street Journal | by L. GORDON CROVITZ.
Whenever there's a threat of epidemic, alongside early deaths comes the casualty of information. Asian governments at least learned from their recent experience of bird flu and SARS the importance of not covering up outbreaks. The still open question is how to assess warnings that health professionals make based on inadequate information. Almost by definition, the risk of an epidemic occurs when the one thing disease experts know for sure is that they don't know for sure what will happen.
"What new information would be sufficient to change your decision?"

Alexander's question (AKA 'Dr. Alexander's question') is a question used to uncover assumptions and associations that may be confusing your judgment. Asking what information would be needed to change your mind can help bring faulty reasoning to light, and it can also point out what facts you should be researching before committing yourself and others to a course of action.

The uncertainty about the longer-term threat of the current swine flu is a
reminder that nature is more complex than mathematical models.Scientific
hypotheses can then be tested, but this approach has limits when it
comes to predictions.
"Alexander's Question," named for a physician who had posed a canny
question of his fellow experts: What information might make the group
change its mind about the need for immunization? Focusing on it would
have led to more focus on uncertainties: the trade-off between side
effects and flu, the difference between the severity of the flu and its
spread, and the choice between mandatory vaccinations and stockpiling in
case of later need. Decision makers should ask themselves what new
"knowns" would change their views.
pandemics  epidemics  risk-assessment  L._Gordon_Crovtiz  information_flows  information  decision_making  immunization  critical_thinking  uncertainty  assumptions  questions  Dr.Alexander's_Question  information_gaps  hidden  latent  facts  change_your_mind  problem_framing  tradeoffs  flu_outbreaks  side_effects  vaccines  stockpiles  information-poor  CDC  unknowns 
may 2009 by jerryking

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