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December 1997 Volume 24, No. 12. The trick in risk management,
perhaps, is in recognizing that normal is not a (default) state of nature but a
state of transition, and trend is not destiny. . . ." (Sept. 1, 1997). Peter Bernstein
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
John Adams, author of Risk University College London Press, London, 1995
Peter_Bernstein  risk-management  risks  book_reviews  base_rates  ephemerality  transient  impermanence  trends  transitions  normality  quotes 
april 2018 by jerryking
Do We Want an Erasable Internet? - WSJ.com
Dec. 22, 2013|| WSJ | By Farhad Manjoo.

Snapchat will have been one of the most fascinating services to hit the Internet in years. To me, the app's exploding popularity suggests that society is yearning for a new way to think about data. Snapchat is one of the first mainstream services to show us that our photos and texts don't need to stick around forever: that erasing all the digital effluvia generated by our phones and computers can be just as popular a concept as saving it.

If the Snapchat model takes off—if other sites and services began to promote the idea of erasability as a competitive feature—the Internet would look very different from the Internet of today. It would be a more private network, one without the constant worry of every ill-considered picture or thought being held up for ridicule by the whole world, forever....Snapchat provides a sense of liberation from the constraints of a permanent record. Of course, we might not have to pick. Big Snapchat-like growth could mean that we'll have a Forever Internet and an Erasable Internet living side by side. Some users mainly will choose apps and services that save our data by default, while others will choose instant deletion. A lot will choose both, depending.
Snapchat  mobile_applications  transient  impermanence  ephemerality  Farhad_Manjoo  invisibility 
december 2013 by jerryking
Snap Out of It: Kids Aren't Reliable Tech Predictors - WSJ.com
Nov. 17, 2013 | WSJ | By Farhad Manjoo.

First, Snapchat's main selling point is ephemerality. Users who send a photo and caption using the app can select how long the image is viewable. Second, and relatedly, Snapchat is used primarily by teens and people in college. This explains much of Silicon Valley's obsession with the company....tech execs, youngsters are the canaries in the gold mine.

That logic follows a widely shared cultural belief: We all tend to assume that young people are on the technological vanguard, that they somehow have got an inside scoop on what's next. If today's kids are Snapchatting instead of Facebooking, the thinking goes, tomorrow we'll all be Snapchatting, too, because tech habits, like hairstyles, flow only one way: young to old.

There is only one problem with elevating young people's tastes this way: Kids are often wrong....Incidentally, though 20-something tech founders like Mr. Zuckerberg, Steve Jobs and Bill Gates get a lot of ink, they are unusual.... "The twentysomething inexperienced founder is an outlier, not the norm," ...If you think about it for a second, the fact that young people aren't especially reliable predictors of tech trends shouldn't come as a surprise. Sure, youth is associated with cultural flexibility, a willingness to try new things that isn't necessarily present in older folk. But there are other, less salutary hallmarks of youth, including capriciousness, immaturity, and a deference to peer pressure even at the cost of common sense. This is why high school is such fertile ground for fads. And it's why, in other cultural areas, we don't put much stock in teens' choices. No one who's older than 18, for instance, believes One Direction is the future of music....Is the app just a youthful fad, just another boy band, or is it something more permanent; is it the Beatles?

To figure this out, we would need to know why kids are using it. Are they reaching for Snapchat for reasons that would resonate with older people—because, like the rest of us, they've grown wary of the public-sharing culture promoted by Facebook and Twitter? Or are they using it for less universal reasons, because they want to evade parental snooping, send risqué photos, or avoid feeling left out of a fad everyone else has adopted?

At this point no one knows, probably not even the people who make Snapchat. For now,That's reason enough to be wary of Snapchat's youthful vigor.
capriciousness  customer_risk  developmental_change  ephemerality  fads  Farhad_Manjoo  generational_change  hiring-a-product-to-do-a-specific-job  immaturity  impermanence  invisibility  leading_indicators  motivations  peer_pressure  predictors  Silicon_Valley  Snapchat  snooping  transient  trends  young_people  youth 
november 2013 by jerryking
Amazon's Greatest Weapon: Jeff Bezos's Paranoia - WSJ.com
Nov. 13, 2013 | WSJ | By Farhad Manjoo.

What could Mr. Bezos possibly have to fear? Impermanence. Mr. Bezos is in an industry, retail sales, in which every innovation is instantly pored over and copied, in which (thanks partly to him) margins are constantly driven to zero, and in which customers are governed by passing fancy and whim. Being online confers fantastic advantages to Amazon, but it also comes at a deep cost: Very little about its business is burned into customers' minds.

Hence, frenzy: Amazon is in a race to embed itself into the fabric of world-wide commerce in a way that would make it indispensable to everyone's shopping habits—and to do so before its rivals wise up to its plans
Amazon  contra-Amazon  e-commerce  Fedex  habits  impermanence  Jeff_Bezos  network_effects  paranoia  retailers  shopping_experience  speed  staying_hungry  tradeoffs  transient  UPS  USPS  whims  shopping_habits 
november 2013 by jerryking
Be prepared for when opportunity knocks
Oct. 24, 2000 | The Financial Times p4.|Daniel Muzyka.
Business opportunities are becoming more fleeting and difficult to grasp.

Daniel Muzyka explains why and what you can do to prepare for them
Daniel_Muzyka  opportunities  preparation  transient  impermanence 
november 2011 by jerryking
Temporary Restaurants - Now You See It, Now You Don't - NYTimes.com
By FRANK BRUNI
Published: January 4, 2011
All around the city — and, for that matter, the country — restaurants are assuming unfamiliar, impromptu forms.
restaurants  New_York_City  entrepreneurship  pop-ups  quirky  transient  impermanence 
january 2011 by jerryking
A New Vocabulary for Trade
Aug 4, 2005 | WSJ pg. A.12 | Jagdish Bhagwati. The flat world
metaphor is, , both inept and mistakenly alarming. The real problem in
the increasingly globalized economy is rather that most producers in
traded activities -- an expanding set because services have become
steadily more tradeable -- face intensified competition. A specific
producer here will find rival suppliers stealing up on him from
somewhere, whether Portugal, Brazil or Malaysia, indeed from sources
which may not include India and China....Historically, comparative
advantage was "thick," shielded by big buffers. This is no longer so:
not predictably from India and China, but almost certainly from
somewhere. Hence I use the metaphor: "kaleidoscopic comparative
advantage." Today, you have it; but in our state of knife-edge
equilibrium, you may lose it tomorrow and regain it the day after.
...[How quickly can Ontario's colleges pull together a new course? How
much of the content is general vs. specific? for Dianne-- pinboard search on "institutional_integrity" "legal system" ]
ProQuest  flat_world  globalization  Tom_Friedman  metaphors  India  China  comparative_advantage  impermanence  transient  kaleidoscopic  instability  accelerated_lifecycles  global_economy 
december 2010 by jerryking

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