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jerryking : unprepared   14

What’s Left After a Family Business Is Sold?
Aug. 9, 2019 | The New York Times | By Paul Sullivan

Having a pile of money after a company is sold, in place of a company, with all of its stress and complications, would seem like a relief. But a company often holds families together by giving members a shared identity and conferring a status in the community established by previous generations.

Without the company, the family’s perception of itself and its purpose can change, and it is often something that members are not prepared for. Their focus was on running the business and then on the sale; little thought went into what comes next......“The key to doing it successfully is how you prepare yourself and how you prepare your family. It’s really a lifestyle choice.”

If families do not do it right, splitting apart is almost inevitable. “A shared business becomes very much a glue,” ....“When the business is sold, what we see in almost every situation is some family member splits away.” .....Most advisers say the sale of a family business should focus on the transition from operating a company to managing a portfolio of money, not on the money itself. Sometimes the magnitude of the sale becomes an issue for a family’s identity, particularly if the acquisition price becomes public......some families focus more on the money than the traits that made the business successful, and fail to grasp the difference between an operating business and financial capital. ....years before the sale, the family had been formulating a plan for its wealth that focused on family values but also held the members accountable. A family scorecard, for example, tracks their progress on 40 items that the family has deemed important, including working hard, investing wisely and the protecting its legacy.
Mr. Deary said the family used the scorecard to objectively answer the question: “Are we constantly trying to get a little bit better every day at what we do?”

As the wealth stretches out and families grow, those values can become a substitute for the company.
.....continuing education about a family’s values, particularly when the company was gone, allowed successive generations to understand where their wealth came from.

Those values often work best when they are broad — honesty, integrity, hard work — and not so specific that family members chafe. “The loose binds bind best,”

Family relationships can suffer when there are no shared values but strong financial connections, like a large trust or partnership that manages the wealth.
accountability  exits  family  family_business  family_office  family_scorecards  family_values  generations  generational_wealth  heirs  liquidity_events  money_management  purpose  relationships  Second_Acts  self-perception  unprepared  values  wealth_management 
august 2019 by jerryking
Can Trump Handle a Foreign Crisis?
Feb. 7, 2019 | WSJ | By Peggy Noonan.

He’ll face one eventually, and there’s good reason to worry the administration will be unprepared.

Someday this White House will face a sudden, immediate and severe foreign-policy crisis..... past and present officials of this administration are concerned on how the White House would handle a crisis......History resides in both the unexpected and the long-predicted. Russia moves against a U.S. ally, testing Washington’s commitment to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty; a coordinated cyber action by our adversaries takes down the American grid; China, experiencing political unrest within a background of a slowing economy, decides this is a good time to move on Taiwan; someone bombs Iran’s missile sites; Venezuela explodes in violence during a military crackdown; there’s an accidental launch somewhere..... historian Margaret MacMillan said ....“I think we should never underestimate the sheer role of accident.”....Everything depends on personnel, process and planning. The president and his top advisers have to work closely, with trust and confidence, quickly comprehending the shape of the challenge and its implications. There must be people around him with wisdom, judgment, experience. They must know their jobs and be able to execute them under pressure. Clear lines of communication are key between both individuals and agencies.....keep their eyes on the million moving pieces, military and diplomatic, that comprise a strategy.......During the Berlin airlift, thought at the time to be the height of the Cold War, Secretary of State George C. Marshall, who’d been Army chief of staff during World War II, was asked how worried he was. “I’ve seen worse,” he replied. He had. ......“No administration is ready for its first crisis,” says Richard Haass, who was a member of George H.W. Bush’s NSC and is author of “A World in Disarray.” “What you learn is that the machinery isn’t adequate, or people aren’t ready.” First crises trigger reforms of procedures so that second ones are better handled. ......There is no way, really, to simulate a crisis, because you don’t know what’s coming, and key people are busy doing their regular jobs. And all administrations, up until the point they’re tested, tend to be overconfident. What can they do to be readier? Think, study, talk and plan.....For a modern example of good process, personnel and management, there is the Cuban missile crisis. .....the stakes couldn’t have been higher.......It might be good to have regular situation-room meetings on what-ifs, and how to handle what-ifs, and to have deep contingency planning with intelligence, military and civilian leaders discussing scenarios. “Put yourself in a position,” says Mr. Haass, “where you’re less unread when a crisis does occur.”.......Margaret MacMillan again: People not only get used to peace and think it’s “the normal state of affairs,” they get used to the idea that any crisis can be weathered, because they have been in the past. But that’s no guarantee of anything, is it?
adversaries  chance  contingency_planning  crisis  Donald_Trump  U.S.foreign_policy  JFK  Margaret_MacMillan  overconfidence  Richard_Haass  security_&_intelligence  unexpected  White_House  unprepared  accidents  Cuban_Missile_Crisis  luck  Peggy_Noonan  preparation  readiness  George_Marshall  normality  unforeseen 
february 2019 by jerryking
Mental bias leaves us unprepared for disaster
August 14, 2017 | Financial Times | Tim Harford.

Even if we could clearly see a crisis coming, would it have made a difference?

The 2004 storm, Hurricane Ivan, weakened and turned aside before striking New Orleans. The city was thus given almost a full year's warning of the gaps in its defences. The near miss led to much discussion but little action.

When Hurricane Katrina hit the city, evacuation proved as impractical and the Superdome as inadequate as had been expected. The levees broke in more than 50 places, and about 1,500 people died. New Orleans was gutted. It was an awful failure but surely not a failure of forecasting.

Robert Meyer and Howard Kunreuther in The Ostrich Paradox argue that it is common for institutions and ordinary citizens to make poor decisions in the face of foreseeable natural disasters, sometimes with tragic results.

There are many reasons for this, including corruption, perverse incentives or political expediency. But the authors focus on psychological explanations. They identify cognitive rules of thumb that normally work well but serve us poorly in preparing for extreme events.

One such mental shortcut is what the authors term the “amnesia bias”, a tendency to focus on recent experience (i.e. "disaster myopia" the human tendency to dismiss long-ago events as irrelevant, to believe This Time is Different and ignore what is not under one’s nose). We remember more distant catastrophes but we do not feel them viscerally. For example, many people bought flood insurance after watching the tragedy of Hurricane Katrina unfold, but within three years demand for flood insurance had fallen back to pre-Katrina levels.

We cut the same cognitive corners in finance. There are many historical examples of manias and panics but, while most of us know something about the great crash of 1929, or the tulip mania of 1637, those events have no emotional heft. Even the dotcom bubble of 1999-2001, which should at least have reminded everyone that financial markets do not always give sensible price signals, failed to make much impact on how regulators and market participants behaved. Six years was long enough for the lesson to lose its sting.

Another rule of thumb is “optimism bias”. We are often too optimistic, at least about our personal situation, even in the midst of a more generalized pessimism. In 1980, the psychologist Neil Weinstein published a study showing that people did not dwell on risks such as cancer or divorce. Yes, these things happen, Professor Weinstein’s subjects told him: they just won’t happen to me.

The same tendency was on display as Hurricane Sandy closed in on New Jersey in 2012. Robert Meyer found that residents of Atlantic City reckoned that the chance of being hit was more than 80 per cent. That was too gloomy: the National Hurricane Center put it at 32 per cent. Yet few people had plans to evacuate, and even those who had storm shutters often had no intention of installing them.

Surely even an optimist should have taken the precautions of installing the storm shutters? Why buy storm shutters if you do not erect them when a storm is coming? Messrs Meyer and Kunreuther point to “single action bias”: confronted with a worrying situation, taking one or two positive steps often feels enough. If you have already bought extra groceries and refuelled the family car, surely putting up cumbersome storm shutters is unnecessary?

Reading the psychological literature on heuristics and bias sometimes makes one feel too pessimistic. We do not always blunder. Individuals can make smart decisions, whether confronted with a hurricane or a retirement savings account. Financial markets do not often lose their minds. If they did, active investment managers might find it a little easier to outperform the tracker funds. Governments, too, can learn lessons and erect barriers against future trouble.

Still, because things often do work well, we forget. The old hands retire; bad memories lose their jolt; we grow cynical about false alarms. Yesterday’s prudence is today’s health-and-safety-gone-mad. Small wonder that, 10 years on, senior Federal Reserve official Stanley Fischer is having to warn against “extremely dangerous and extremely short-sighted” efforts to dismantle financial regulations. All of us, from time to time, prefer to stick our heads in the sand.
amnesia_bias  biases  books  complacency  disasters  disaster_myopia  dotcom  emotional_connections  evacuations  financial_markets  historical_amnesia  lessons_learned  manias  natural_calamities  optimism_bias  outperformance  overoptimism  panics  paradoxes  perverse_incentives  precaution  recency_bias  short-sightedness  single_action_bias  Tim_Harford  unforeseen  unprepared 
august 2017 by jerryking
How to garner goodwill and respect | Financial Post
April 2, 2012 Financial Post | Rick Spence.

here are seven ways I believe you can woo your audience:

1. Recognize this opportunity is about understanding what the audience wants to hear. Always ask the meeting organizers about their expectations, and strive to meet them.
2. Be yourself.
3. Explain clearly and concisely what you do. ...Tell your story as simply as possible — who buys your products, and what problems do you solve for them?
4. Look for ways to tell your story visually. Use PowerPoint to show us your premises, your products and your customers. Don’t overdo it; people want to hear from you, not sit through a canned presentation.
5. Brag, but subtly.
6. Be memorable. At least, don’t be boring. Do something unexpected. Bring an unlikely prop, share a secret, describe how your company changed people’s lives, or ask the audience to take action. Leave people with one compelling idea or vision they’ll be talking about long after you sit down.
7. Practise, practise. Read your presentation repeatedly until you are so familiar with it you don’t need your notes.

If you finish early, ask for questions from the floor. Prepare an initial question or two of your own, in case your audience is shy (otherwise, this could be longest minute of your life). You might say, “What I’d be asking me right now is this — ” Follow it with a question that allows you to repeat your theme, with some new “inside” information that enhances it.

Be spontaneous, but never unprepared.
authenticity  clarity  Communicating_&_Connecting  concision  conferences  goodwill  know_your_audience  preparation  public_speaking  readiness  respect  RetailLoco_2017  Rick_Spence  speeches  spontaneity  storytelling  unprepared  visual_culture 
january 2017 by jerryking
Portents of World Cyberwar - WSJ
By L. GORDON CROVITZ
July 12, 2015

A new novel, “Ghost Fleet,” warns Americans about advances in cyberwarfare that could leave the U.S. as unprepared as Britain was against the U-boats. The title refers to mothballed warships and planes the U.S. recommissions because their pre-Internet technologies haven’t been hacked. (Disclosure: The publisher is Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, on whose board I serve.)

Authors Peter Singer and August Cole are think-tank policy wonks inspired by Tom Clancy’s 1986 “Red Storm Rising.” Clancy’s descriptions of emerging technology, including still-secret stealth aircraft, were so accurate that he was accused of using classified material. The authors of “Ghost Fleet” call their genre “useful fiction.”
cyber_warfare  China  China_rising  fiction  L._Gordon_Crovtiz  U.S._Navy  books  security_&_intelligence  Asia_Pacific  Tom_Clancy  unprepared  stealth 
july 2015 by jerryking
5 Things Super Lucky People Do
Mar 17, 2014 | Inc. Magazine | BY Kevin Daum.

1. Play to your strengths. So much time and energy is wasted trying to do things you probably don't do very well. Author and Inc. columnist Lewis Schiff learned from his survey of incredibly wealthy people that they got that way by focusing only on what they do best. Everything else you can delegate, or you could find a partner to compensate for your weaknesses. That way, you will shine where you excel and attract opportunity. Good things come to those who emanate success.

2. Prepare in advance. Unlucky people often get that way because they're reactive and unprepared for whatever comes. People who have stored food and water in their basements aren't lucky to find themselves prepared when disaster strikes, they used forethought to make sure they had what they might need just in case. I personally scoff at this horrible recent trend of disparaging business plans because things change constantly. The point of a business plan isn't to follow it no matter what, it's to establish a structure for smart decision making that allows you to succeed no matter what the future might bring.

3. Start early. Some people seem to have more hours in the day. I myself don't need more than six hours of sleep and am constantly finding ways to be more efficient. I use that extra time to start my projects well in advance. My rewards aren't dependent upon the time of day that I take action. (This column is being written at 3 a.m.) But it does matter that I'm beginning to explore projects I expect to complete months or years from now. So many people only want to put their energy into things that provide immediate gratification. The most fortunate people I know are the ones who planted seeds early and now reap that harvest of happiness.

4. Connect with as many people as possible. The key to success is access to opportunity. Access comes from influence. If you're influential, people will come and bring opportunities to you. The bigger your following, the more powerful your influence. The only way to build a big following is to provide value to many people. You have to provide the sort of value that will cause people to spread your thoughts far and wide, attributing credit to you when they do. Are you creating that kind of value? If not, figure how you can.

5. Follow up. Opportunities often come and go because people don't respond in a timely manner. I'm always amazed when people ask me for something and I respond only to never hear from them again. Three months ago, a young woman asked me if I hire interns or assistants. I replied immediately saying I'm always willing to consider hiring people who bring value to my work. I asked her how she thought she could enhance what I could do. I never heard from her again. Perhaps she now considers herself unlucky that opportunity doesn't come her way. I believe that following up is often more powerful and impressive than the act of initiating.
tips  luck  Communicating_&_Connecting  opportunities  JCK  focus  preparation  readiness  value_creation  networking  following_up  self-starters  overachievers  strengths  affirmations  forethought  weaknesses  individual_initiative  unprepared  chance  contingency  partnerships  high-achieving  early_risers 
march 2014 by jerryking
Book Review: Mismatch - WSJ.com
October 23, 2012|WSJ |By TREVOR BUTTERWORTH.

The Hidden Campus Crisis
Placing unprepared students in challenging academic environments derails their lives and careers.
affirmative_action  book_reviews  achievement_gaps  African-Americans  unprepared  mismatches 
october 2012 by jerryking
The dark side of mentoring -
July 1, 2011 |FT.com|| by Mike Southon. Mentoring should never
be regarded as a revenue opportunity--it should always be provided for
free. A mentoring relationship should be a 2-way process, with the
person giving the advice learning as much, if not more than the person
seeking it. The greatest learning pt. for mentors is always about
themselves....Learn one's strengths and weaknesses. Maturity &
self-awareness are essential prerequisites for giving measured advice to
others....Most mentors have little or no formal training and are
therefore unprepared when the mentees do not listen to their sage advice
– or let them down in other ways. It's important for mentors to adopt
an air of professional detachment at all times and not try to intervene
unnecessarily. Never allow the relationship or the problems of the
mentee to adversely affecting the personal life of the mentor....Study
the techniques of counselling in case they find themselves with a mentee
who is disturbed & manipulative
mentoring  challenges  strengths  weaknesses  maturity  self-awareness  advice  unprepared  dark_side 
july 2011 by jerryking
Why Canada needs a national strategy on dementia
September 18, 2010 | The Globe and Mail | by André Picard.
"Canada's health and welfare systems are woefully unprepared for a
coming crisis. The Alzheimer Society is pleading for a national action
plan, as it has repeatedly in its 32 years of existence. Yet the federal
government refuses to invest in a strategy for dementia to match those
already in place for cancer, heart disease and mental health. The Health
Minister is refusing even to meet a new independent group of leading
researchers in the field.

So, today and next week, The Globe and Mail's journalists do what the
government would not: They consult experts, from renowned scientists to
the members of dementia victims' families, gathering facts and recording
personal experiences with the devastating disease. They also present a
seven-point plan to grapple with the coming crisis. It is only a
starting point, but if we don't begin the quest for desperately needed
solutions, more and more of us will slip away."
André_Picard  cognitive_skills  mental_health  crisis  dementia  Alzheimer’s_disease  unprepared  action_plans  national_strategies 
september 2010 by jerryking
Beyond the Rim
December 13, 2004 | Wall Street Journal | by MARK HELPRIN. The
21st century will be not just the century of terrorism: terrorism will
fade. It will be a naval century, with the Pacific its center, and
challenges in the remotest places of the world offered not by dervishes
and crazy-men but by a great power that is at last and at least
America's equal. Unfortunately, it is in the U.S. nature neither to
foresee nor prepare for what lies beyond the rim. With its new economic
resources China has embarked upon a military traverse from reliance
upon mass to devotion to quality, with stress upon war in space, the
oceans, and the ether--three areas of unquestioned American superiority.
China  China_rising  confrontations  cyber_security  cyber_warfare  geopolitics  maritime  Mark_Helprin  mercantilism  PACOM  rising_powers  security_&_intelligence  South_China_Sea  space_warfare  unprepared  U.S.-China_relations 
march 2010 by jerryking

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