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jerryking : unthinkable   11

How to Prepare, Just in Case You Die Young - WSJ
By Chana R. Schoenberger
March 4, 2018

POWERS OF ATTORNEY and PROXIES
“If you’re worried about passing suddenly or becoming suddenly incapacitated, the legal documents you should have are some sort of health-care advance directive and a living will,” Mr. Kaplan says. A health-care proxy appoints one person, older than age 18, to act on your behalf when making medical decisions. If you don’t have this document signed and something happens to you, your spouse will have the right to make these decisions for you, followed by your adult children and your parents. Make sure to designate a first- and second-choice person to be your proxy, Mr. Kaplan says.

You’ll also want to sign a living will, which lays out your intentions for end-of-life care, such as when to withhold treatment if doctors determine you’re not going to recover, and whether you wish to be an organ donor.
checklists  insurance  estate_planning  howto  dying  end-of-life  unthinkable  wills 
march 2018 by jerryking
Why Warren Buffett Keeps Framed Reminders of Awful Moments in Economic History
Olivia B. Waxman
Jan 26, 2017

"I wanted to put on the walls days of extreme panic in Wall Street just as a reminder than anything can happen in this world," he says in this clip provided exclusively to TIME, from the upcoming HBO documentary Becoming Warren Buffett. "It's instructive art."
Warren_Buffett  Berkshire_Hathaway  web_video  panics  economic_history  art  unpredictability  unthinkable  imagination  uncertainty  HBO  documentaries  artifacts  reminders 
february 2017 by jerryking
VC Pioneer Vinod Khosla Says AI Is Key to Long-Term Business Competitiveness - CIO Journal. - WSJ
By STEVE ROSENBUSH
Nov 15, 2016

“Improbables, which people don’t pay attention to, are not unimportant, we just don’t know which improbable is important,” Mr. Khosla said. “So what do you do? You don’t plan for the highest likelihood scenario. You plan for agility. And that is a fundamental choice we make as a nation, in national defense, as the CEO of a company, as the CIO of an infrastructure, of an organization, and in the way we live.”....So change, and predictions for the future, that are important, almost never come from anybody who knows the area. Almost anyone you talk to about the future of the auto industry will be wrong on the auto industry. So, no large change in a space has come from an incumbent. Retail came from Amazon. SpaceX came from a startup. Genentech did biotechnology. Youtube, Facebook, Twitter did media … because there is too much conventional wisdom in industry. ....Extrapolating the past is the wrong way to predict the future, and improbables are not unimportant. People plan around high probability. Improbables, which people don’t pay attention to, are not unimportant, we just don’t know which improbable is important.
Vinod_Khosla  artificial_intelligence  autonomous_vehicles  outsiders  gazelles  unknowns  automotive_industry  change  automation  diversity  agility  future  predictions  adaptability  probabilities  Uber  point-to-point  public_transit  data  infrastructure  information_overload  unthinkable  improbables  low_probability  extrapolations  pay_attention 
november 2016 by jerryking
9/11 and the age of sovereign failure -
Sep. 10, 2011 | The Globe & Mail | Michael Ignatieff.. One
of the tasks we ask govt. to perform is to think the unthinkable. Yet on
9/11, govt. institutions failed...A sovereign is a state with a
monopoly on the means of force...It is there to think the unthinkable
and plan for it. A sovereign failed that morning.... There has been a
cascade of failure: (1) No WMDs found in Iraq; (2) The failure of the
levees & New Orleans civil authority following Hurricane Katrina;
(3) the 2008 mortgage bubble and govt. regulators; (4) the failure of
govt. regulators to catch BP before the Spring 2010 oil spill. ...While
there are a lot of things a govt. might do, there are a few things that
only a govt. can do: protect the people, rescue them when they are in
danger, regulate against catastrophic risk and safeguard the full faith
and credit of their currency. Sovereigns matter. And rebuilding their
legitimacy, their capacity and their competence is the political task
that matters most......It is always good to be skeptical about what governments tell us. But we are beyond skepticism now, into a deep and enduring cynicism. There will come a day when they are not crying wolf and we will not believe them. Then we will be in trouble. Some trust in government is a condition of democracy and security alike. That trust has been weakened and can't be rebuilt until sovereigns say what they mean, mean what they say and do what they promise.
Michael_Ignatieff  failure  government  9/11  low_probability  catastrophic_risk  priorities  unthinkable  sovereign-risk  state-as-facilitator  legitimacy  capacity  competence  oil_spills  cynicism  skepticism  policymaking 
september 2011 by jerryking
Managing Water as Scarcity Looms - WSJ.com
SEPT. 27, 2010 | WSJ | By GERALDINE AMIEL. Suez
Environnement's CEO Taps Opportunities Amid Escalating Global Shortages;
a Particular Thirst for China. As the world's population grows and
migrates to cities, water shortages are happening in places where
scarcity was unthinkable only 5 yrs ago, such as the Spanish coast,...
London,--is described by the U.K. Environment Agency as "seriously water
stressed." And in March 2009, a report by the WEF said the lack of
water would "soon tear into various parts of the global economic system"
and "start to emerge as a headline geopolitical issue."...``on the U.S.
East Coast, "people are used to having water—they don't think further,
they don't think about future generations." Mr. Chaussade prefers
thinking for the long term. His main hobby is planting trees in his
garden and watching them grow, imagining what people will think of them
in 100 yrs. "The garden must be beautiful when you create it,--It must
remain so when you're gone."
water  scarcity  China  Suez  Veolia  CEOs  smart_grid  desalination  imagination  wastewater-treatment  sensors  HBS  gardening  long-term  far-sightedness  unthinkable  geopolitics 
september 2010 by jerryking
Some Newspapers Shift Coverage After Tracking Readers Online - NYTimes.com
September 5, 2010 | Wall Street Journal | By JEREMY W.
PETERS. In most businesses, not knowing how well a particular product
is performing would be almost unthinkable. Now, because of technology
newspapers can pinpoint what people online are viewing and commenting
on, how much time they spend with an article and even how much money an
article makes in advertising revenue, newspapers can make more
scientific decisions about allocating their ever scarcer resources.
...reader metrics as a tool to help him better determine how to use
online resources.

“We ask, ‘What can we do online to make it more attractive?” ’ Mr.
Narisetti said. “Can we do podcasts? Can we do a photo gallery? Can we
do any kind of user-generated content?”
newspapers  data_driven  online  ufsc  unthinkable  resource_allocation  user_generated  print_journalism  decision_making 
september 2010 by jerryking
Spillonomics - Underestimating Risk - NYTimes.com
May 31, 2010 |NYT | By DAVID LEONHARDT. The people running BP
did a dreadful job of estimating the true chances of events that seemed
unlikely — and may even have been unlikely — but that would bring
enormous costs....We make two basic — and opposite — types of mistakes.
When an event is difficult to imagine, we tend to underestimate its
likelihood. This is the proverbial black swan...On the other hand, when
an unlikely event is all too easy to imagine, we often go in the
opposite direction and overestimate the odds.
BP  risk-taking  risk-assessment  oil_spills  mistakes  black_swan  underestimation  underpricing  unthinkable  overestimation  dual-consciousness  unimaginable  frequency_and_severity  improbables  disasters  disaster_preparedness  imagination  low_probability 
june 2010 by jerryking
The Culture of Today’s Changing World
May/June 2009 | Departures | By Joshua Cooper Ramo. From
Hezbollah in Beirut to a investment fund in Beijing, we’re living in an
age of unthinkable change and surprise. "In a world of constant newness
in science, technology, and media, there’s no reason to think politics
and economics should be immune to change any more than the way we search
for information is. If we truly want to develop a sense of the unstable
geography at this moment and master the suddenly essential language of
surprise and hope and danger, our only chance is to get out of the house
(or the bunker) and start looking for signs of the new. Travel,
tourism, and culture instantly become more than hobbies or distractions;
they are transformed into our best hope of understanding. Because while
we are now indisputably living in the age of the unthinkable, it
doesn’t mean we’re living in the age of the unexplainable."
Joshua_Cooper_Ramo  globalization  dangers  politicaleconomy  instability  unpredictability  travel  tourism  culture  surprises  constant_change  sense-making  unthinkable 
january 2010 by jerryking
Hezbollah as 'a hot cell for innovation'Why our intentions 'don't just fail, they backfire'
Apr 19, 2009 | Toronto Star | Lynda Hurst.

we're still using anachronistic ideas to hold together a global order that no longer exists. A revolution is in progress where the unthinkable all too readily becomes the inevitable.

The result? More – and more dangerous – reversals of intent and outcome.

"What's happening today is that our intentions don't just fail, they backfire on us," says the Beijing-based geo-strategy analyst. "We deliver the opposite of what we intend because we so misunderstand the way the system now works."

The "war on terrorism" creates even more terrorists. The attempt to build a risk-proof financial system produces more risks than anyone is able to foresee. The bid to spread capitalism across the globe widens the chasm between rich and poor. The effort to contain nuclear proliferation leads to rogue states such as North Korea and Iran playing gimme-gimme games (or maybe not) with the final option.

Think Mikhail Gorbachev setting out only to reform the Soviet Union, but instead triggering its downfall, which in turn leads the U.S. to conclude its values have won the Cold War. Not so, Ramo says. Or George W. Bush reckoning he can inject democracy into Iraq and, presto, out comes peace: "Absurd in the extreme."

The new rules are
still being formed. They will be based on one central premise: countless
variations in the scheme of things will continue to occur at warp
speed, and adapting to them equally as quickly will be crucial. The
unpredictable demands of constant newness can immobilize institutions,
however, not just individuals. It can blind them to unsprung traps,
freeze once-honed navigation skills. The structure of the U.S. State
Department has barely changed since the end of World War II.

Governments can't prepare for everything in the future, but they can
build resilience into their systems. Real power will be the ability to
come back strong after an unexpected shock. That will mean persistently
assessing the big picture, not just its component pieces.
new_normal  uncertainty  Joshua_Cooper_Ramo  geopolitics  unpredictability  resilience  21st._century  adaptability  managing_uncertainty  Hezbollah  unintended_consequences  unexpected  political_power  accelerated_lifecycles  U.S._State_Department  immobilize  paralyze  constant_change  revenge_effects  rogue_actors  unthinkable  misunderstandings  Cambrian_explosion  iterations  Octothorpe_Software  Mikhail_Gorbachev  the_big_picture  warp_speed  financial_system 
may 2009 by jerryking
The Age of the Unthinkable
The Age of the Unthinkable
Lionel Barber. FT.com. London: Apr 18, 2009.

The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly
Surprises Us and What We Can Do About ItBy Joshua Cooper RamoLittle,
Brown pound(s)20, 279 pagesFT Bookshop price pound(s)16
21st._century  black_swan  books  book_reviews  Joshua_Cooper_Ramo  uncertainty  unexpected  unthinkable 
may 2009 by jerryking

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