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jonerp : forecasting   8

Forecasting: Let’s Start by Asking the Right Questions
"I usually put the phone on mute and smile. RFPs and powerpoint presentations are the worst way to buy decision support technologies like supply chain planning. Most consultants don’t know what they don’t know about planning. As a result, only 42% of companies rate their S&OP process as effective. This is especially true for forecasting. It is a flip of the coin."
supply  chain  planning  demand  forecasting  sap  apo 
may 2018 by jonerp
EPM, Project Orion, and the Beginner’s Mind - by @kellblog
"While as EPMers, we take great pride in our category and, at Host, in our ability to move enterprise-class EPM to the cloud, we must recognize that at some level EPM has failed to deliver against its broad vision of accountability and empowerment. To get to the bottom of this, as Clayton Christensen has often observed, you can’t just talk to your customers to understand your market, you need to understand non-consumers as well. All those Excel-only or primarily-Excel users are Christensen’s non-consumers, so we decided to talk to them. Here’s an example of what we heard."
budgeting  cpm  design  epm  fcpm  forecasting  innovation  planning  product  strategy  scpm  shoshin 
march 2018 by jonerp
Probabilistic Forecasting: Right Fit for Your Business? - by @lcecere
"For difficult demand profiles, probabilistic forecasting is a new and powerful technique. It is a type of engine. Forecasting is all about better math, and the fit of the data model to drive outcomes. This implementation was extremely successful at Spairliners, enabling them to deliver world-class service."
demand  global  supply  chains  innovation  inventory  management  anthony  narozza  probabilistic  forecasting  spairliners.  engines 
october 2017 by jonerp
What About Them Apples? - by @lcecere #scm
"While many argue that the definitions of the time horizons change with concurrent planning, I say not so fast. I think that within a global organization there is a need for a design group, an S&OP plan, and a replenishment process. Define the boundaries of the time horizons by work process definitions, not technology capabilities. Planning at companies varies by governance and cultural DNA."
demand  apples  cognitive  learning  management  share  group  forecasting  next-generation  supply  chain  processes  planning  by  design  point  of  sale  data 
october 2017 by jonerp
Summoning the Courage to Redefine Forecasting: Upending the Apple Cart - by @lcecdere
"Unfortunately, while business leaders know there is a problem, there is an unwillingness to act. Today’s solutions are not adequate. Yet, few will test an alternative approach. The good news is that new solutions offer promise. The bad news is unlearning traditional forecasting processes is hard. Business users need to be open to testing new approaches and technology solution providers need to prove the value."
demand  metrics  that  matter  new  technologies  cognitive  computing  forecasting 
september 2017 by jonerp
Different Strokes for Different Folks (to Yield Better Results?)? - by @lcecere #scm
"Disruption in supply chain planning is happening. My angst is that it is not happening faster. We are on a path to reinvent decision-support technologies like supply chain planning. The third act is starting. This will make traditional approaches obsolete. The rate of adoption will be fast for early adopters (next five years), but much slower for conservative followers. The barrier for all is traditional thinking."
demand  uncategorized  channel  data  cognitive  reasoning  planning  innovation  probabilistic  forecasting  supply  chain  insights 
february 2017 by jonerp
Three Reasons Why I Love Hadoop, and You Should Too! - by @lcecere
In essence, what we built through these first and second generation applications, that we term forecasting is order prediction not market forecasting. Why is this a problem? The tactical processes of forecasting in this conventional analysis cannot sense markets fast enough to slow or speed up processes."
big  data  supply  chains  demand  driven  shaping  apache  spark  hadoop  market-driven  forecasting  pig  redefinition  of  master  streaming  chain  management 
november 2015 by jonerp
Will the Downturn Signal an Upturn? by @lcecere
"In the real world, companies operate with a Mean Absolute Forecast Error of 24-60%, and have a bias of 9-40%. Many organizations will play the shell game of reporting forecast error so that the numbers look better: either calculating the forecast at a higher level in the forecast hierarchy (not at the item level) or reporting the data as a Weighted Mean Absolute Error. This gives supply chain leaders a false sense of security. Leaders feel that they are adequately buffered against the market. They are not."
demand  sensing  market-driven  forecasting  supply  chain  economic  recovery  excellence  bullwhip  effect  chemical  industry  management 
august 2015 by jonerp

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