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juliusbeezer : brexit   56

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Were you to have asked, any of the 17.4 million voters would have been happy to explain this point to you.
Brexit 
5 days ago by juliusbeezer
Twitter
RT : A story

Tory PM calls referendum to resolve Tory civil war

Tory austerity & broken democracy fuels vote f…
Brexit 
12 weeks ago by juliusbeezer
Twitter
RT : For democracy to work, no one can be above the law

Electoral offences were committed during the Referendum…
Brexit 
12 weeks ago by juliusbeezer
Twitter
The UK has had the debate it should have had before the 2016 referendum, after it. A stark contrast, in my…
brexit 
march 2019 by juliusbeezer
(429) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1105761983876530177
PM can't even bring herself to whip her MPs against disastrous No Deal.

It's now clearer than ever that is…
Brexit 
march 2019 by juliusbeezer
As Theresa May loses control over Brexit, her lawyer admits the EU referendum was illegal | The Canary
Prime minister Theresa May has conceded that MPs will have a vote to extend Article 50 and delay Brexit. They will also have a vote to rule out a No Deal scenario.

Despite this Commons pantomime, it’s notable that these concessions come only days after a largely unreported appeal court hearing. During this, May’s legal counsel admitted “the PM is aware” that the Leave campaigns acted unlawfully.
law  Brexit  politics  uk 
february 2019 by juliusbeezer
Twitter
RT : And therein lies the stupidity of . In the real world extending a deadline to ensure you are ready is normal…
Brexit 
february 2019 by juliusbeezer
Brexit, the Irish border and the 'battle for the union' - BBC News
The power to call a border poll rests with the Secretary of State Karen Bradley, who could do so at any time if it appears "likely" to her that a majority would vote in favour of it, but earlier this year she said the conditions had not been met.

Kevin Meagher says Brexit makes it much more likely to happen, and that there are other contributing factors too:

Lack of devolved government in NI for almost two years, due to a financial scandal over a green energy scheme
Changing demographics in NI, which could see a Catholic majority by 2021
Liberalisation of Republic of Ireland on social issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion
ireland  Brexit  uk  politics 
february 2019 by juliusbeezer
I talked to my Leave-voting constituents about Brexit. This is what I learnt
The message is clear. Too many people feel trapped with no way to improve their lives or those of their families.

It may come as a surprise that immigration was barely mentioned by any of my interviewees, although Julie acknowledged it as a factor for some local Brexit voters she knew. She said the nearby Derbyshire town of Shirebrook is now known as “Shirebrookski” because of the high number of Eastern European people who have come over to work in its infamous Sports Direct warehouse and it is now a place that the natives do not consider as a place they would or could work.

Nationally, 41 per cent of 18- 24-year-olds said immigration was too high and 58 per cent of those aged between 25 and 49 said the same, according to Eatwell and Goodwin.

Tony said that he had seen wages for British brickies go down since Eastern European builders have come over and worked for less – even as little as £3 or £5 an hour. He was as concerned for their standard of living as the British natives’ because he said they are living in sub-standard shared accommodation and gang masters line their pockets at their expense. “It is happening all the time and the poor little Poles are getting no money and living in a crappy caravan somewhere,” he said.
politics  uk  Brexit 
february 2019 by juliusbeezer
Europe’s new Reformation
In England the Reformation was not a doctrinal dispute over theological truth that developed into a political contest. It happened the other way around. It originated as a challenge by Henry VIII against the authority of the church – to be more specific, his desire to annul his marriage to his wife Katherine, despite the pope’s refusal to grant this, and marry another in order to produce a male heir. This escalated into a broader assertion of English sovereignty, most strikingly expressed in parliament’s Act of Appeals in 1533, which laid down “that this realm of England is an empire”.

In other words, England was a legal system unto itself. There could be no appeal to a higher authority. The doctrine of “praemunire”, which had previously applied only to matters of state, now became the law of the land. A wronged woman in Yorkshire could no longer appeal to Rome. England was increasingly separated from the European legal order. At the same time, Henry VIII relentlessly attacked the institutions of the Church, especially through the dissolution of the monasteries.
uk  history  politics  religion  Brexit 
february 2019 by juliusbeezer
Twitter
RT : I propose a compromise:

1. Redefine “United Kingdom” as Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

2. Withdraw…
Brexit 
february 2019 by juliusbeezer
The very short history of 'no deal' Brexit | LSE BREXIT
May was keen to instigate simultaneous talks on withdrawal and free trade, in the hope of settling Brexit quickly. In threatening to turn Britain into a giant tax haven, the Lancaster House speech was a futile attempt to frighten the EU into negotiating both deals at the same time.

The suggestion was quickly consigned to irrelevance. The EU did not blink, instead pointing out that withdrawal had to be agreed before trade talks could begin. There is the legal impossibility of the UK signing a trade deal with current EU members, and the political imperative to ensure that dissenting members understand the consequences of leaving the EU before they start imagining the possible benefits of doing so.

The political bind for May was clear. The EU insisted on an orderly withdrawal before trade talks (which would then ensue during a transitional period). To avoid damaging the Irish economy and jeopardising the Northern Ireland peace process, something like the ‘backstop’ – in case a two-year transition was not long enough – was always going to be necessary.

But May knew this meant she would struggle to get a withdrawal deal through parliament unless she could also offer the sunny uplands of the post-Brexit trade relationship at the same time. Although the leading Brexiters in the Conservative Party are now seemingly content to leave the EU without a withdrawal deal, the irony of Britain’s present predicament is that the Leave campaign’s offer in the 2016 referendum was not ‘no deal’ at all, but rather a very comprehensive free trade deal as an alternative to EU membership.
Brexit  uk  eu  politics 
january 2019 by juliusbeezer
There is no left-wing case for Brexit: 21st century socialism requires transnational organization | LSE BREXIT
But those who advocate civic republicanism are understandably frustrated with these propositions. Suppose all this is true, they say. Suppose you want to change transnational institutions. How are you going to do that, if you can’t even sort out your own nation state? How are you going to advance ambitious proposals of state intervention in the economy given the disciplinary neoliberal legal constraints that the EU imposes on its members?...
The left nationalist project collapsed when realising socialism with peaceful means turned into a project of stabilising capitalism. This is not what the founding fathers of social democracy originally intended.
Brexit  politics  eu  uk 
january 2019 by juliusbeezer
At last, parliament is taking back control of Brexit | Rafael Behr | Opinion | The Guardian
reviously, in an imminent no-deal scenario, the prime minister would have been obliged only to inform the House of her intentions. Grieve’s amendment, backed by Labour, opens that statement to amendment. In theory, the Commons could put on record its call for a much softer Brexit, or a referendum, or a request in Brussels to extend the article 50 negotiating window, or even a retraction of the article 50 notification. None of those things would have the force of law, so some (presumably deranged) prime minister could ignore them and run at the cliff edge anyway. But the balance of control has shifted. It has been said many times that there is no majority in parliament for an insane course of action, but no one has been able to say how a majority for sanity might constitutionally assert itself. Now a coalition of the reasonable is starting to take shape.
Brexit  uk  politics 
december 2018 by juliusbeezer
A strange irony: How the EU withdrawal process ended up saving the Human Rights Act | LSE BREXIT
Since the autumn of 2017 the European Parliament has been clear that an important component of a future EU-UK relationship would be the UK’s continued ECHR membership. In the summer of 2018 the European commission draft report on future security cooperation again made membership of the ECHR an essential condition. Theorists of international relations and international law have argued that one the core reasons for states joining the ECHR was to create a form of democratic lock-in where the rights contained in it and the frameworks designed to protect them would be locked in place, in part because it would be hard for states to leave the Convention. Although it is superficially easy for a country to leave the ECHR, an exit mechanism is contained in Article 58 of the Convention and there no direct economic consequences to a state for doing so, the ECHR’s interconnection with other European institutions creates a layer of political restraints constraining exit. The prospect of an exit agreement was clearly used as a lever by the European Parliament in their March 2018 resolution, which required any future trade agreement to be in “strict accordance” with EU values, effectively keeping the UK in the ECHR.

This could be important for securing the HRA’s future because there remains a significant political appetite for its repeal.
Brexit  law 
december 2018 by juliusbeezer
Brexit psychology: cognitive styles and their relationship to nationalistic attitudes | LSE BREXIT
Furthermore, Structural Equation Modelling analysis demonstrated that cognitive flexibility and intolerance of ambiguity predicted individuals’ endorsement of authoritarianism, conservatism, and nationalism to a substantial degree (see Figure 3). Individuals who exhibited greater cognitive flexibility and were more tolerant of uncertainty were less likely to support authoritarian, conservative, and nationalistic attitudes. These ideological orientations in turn predicted participants’ attitudes towards Brexit, immigration, and free movement of labour, accounting for 47.6% of the variance in support for Brexit. The results suggest that cognitive thinking styles associated with processing perceptual and linguistic stimuli may also be drawn upon when individuals evaluate political and ideological arguments.
authoritarianism  psychology  uk  politics  Brexit  language 
november 2018 by juliusbeezer
Twitter
RT : A debate that just focuses on two marginally different versions of is not worth having. The voice for remai…
Brexit 
november 2018 by juliusbeezer
May's Brexit deal is a humiliation for Britain
The same old dilemma as ever just sits there because the UK is unprepared to have an honest conversation about it. Do you want trade or control? The extent to which you give up one allows you more of the other. But even now, as we lose our status in the world, it is just as unresolved as it ever was. We don't know where the hell we're going.

Instead of acknowledging this, May has just lied and lied and lied. She lied when she said we could make a success of Brexit. She lied when she said we could secure full market access while maintaining full sovereignty. She lied when she said she could get a trade deal before the end of Article 50. She lied when she said there would be no need for transition. She lied when she said it would not need to be extended. She lied when she said Britain might choose between either extension or the backstop. She's lying now when she says this is a good deal for Britain, or that any kind of economic or political success might follow from it, or that it is in the national interest.
Brexit  politics 
november 2018 by juliusbeezer
Don’t blame the Irish: the Brexit chaos is all about England | Fintan O’Toole | Opinion | The Guardian
It is a new thing: the first time in 800 years of Anglo-Irish relations that Ireland has had more clout. No wonder the Brexiters and the British government found it impossible for so long to even recognise this new reality. They operated – and some of them continue to operate – under the old rules, in which the game would be settled between the big powers, and the interests of a small country such as Ireland could be easily shoved aside. The Irish would get a few platitudes about peace but the real deal would be done between London and Berlin...
Yet it has not been like that. In part, this is because of simple arithmetic: Ireland is not isolated, it is part of a bloc of 27 states. There is a basic lesson here for the Brexiters: even a very small country inside the EU has more influence than a much larger country on the outside. In part, too, it is because of basic statecraft. The Irish government and diplomatic service, backed by a near-unanimous consensus in the Dublin parliament, had a very clear sense of where Ireland’s vital national interest lay, and hence of what they needed to achieve.
ireland  eu  uk  politics  Brexit 
november 2018 by juliusbeezer
There is no version of Brexit which will benefit the NHS—only varying degrees of harm - The BMJ
It is likely that there will be provision for doctors and nurses coming to the UK after Brexit, albeit at extra cost and bureaucracy, if the government—as it has indicated—follows the guidance of the Migration Advisory Committee. But the effect on the social care workforce and those who rely on them for care will be particularly significant because of the salary threshold of £30,000.

Just over 5% of the regulated nursing profession, 16% of dentists, 5% of allied health professionals, and around 9% of doctors are from elsewhere within the EEA. We cannot afford to lose or further demoralise those who have given so much to our health service. That so many colleagues now feel unwelcome, as a result of the divisive and xenophobic rhetoric of the last campaign, shames us all.
Brexit  uk  medicine  politics 
november 2018 by juliusbeezer
London Calling Brexit: How the rest of the UK views the capital | LSE BREXIT
Firstly, there is the question of overall pride in the capital. Leavers were less likely to express pride in London as capital city of the UK than Remain voters. However, for both groups, a majority of people still said that they were proud of London as a capital. This included 51 per cent in the North of England, and an average of 59% across England only. So whilst there are differences in opinion along Brexit lines, these are far from terminal.
Brexit  London  uk  politics 
november 2018 by juliusbeezer
Twitter
RT : 1) & "understanding leaver's concerns" - thread

As we prepare for a there's been discussion o…
PeoplesVote  Brexit 
november 2018 by juliusbeezer
Backstop breakdown is a product of the oldest Brexit lie
May and Brexit secretary Dominic Raab knew this, so they started issuing the most insane promises. They said it would be time limited. But of course it would not, because then it wouldn't be a backstop. They said the UK would have the unilateral right to revoke it. But of course it would not, because then it wouldn't be a backstop. They said that afterwards the UK would be free to sign whatever trade deals it wanted. Except of course it would not, because that makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. A customs union means you sign up to the same tariffs. A single market in goods means you sign up to the same regulatory standards. And if you have done that, you will not be able to negotiate meaningful independent trade deals, because you have no leverage.
Brexit 
november 2018 by juliusbeezer
Long read: how EU membership undermines the left | LSE BREXIT
It is leaving the EU that challenges and disrupts the British state in its contemporary form. Remaining in the EU means not challenging or disrupting the smooth operation of the actually existing political form of capitalist rule in Britain today. The EU is not a foreign superstate that rules over Britain. The EU is a political form through which the British government collaborates with other European governments in order to govern Britain. The other EU member states do the same for their own populations and territories. They collaborate with each other by constitutionalising various restrictions on economic policy, and by making law in intergovernmental forums.

This intergovernmental process means that European governments are more accountable to each other than they are to their domestic legislatures. The capitalist nation states of Europe have been transformed by EU membership into capitalist member states. Brexit represents a serious blow to this form of remote and unaccountable government, the one by which we are actually ruled. This blow is experienced as such by the British state’s political, bureaucratic and academic cadres who have as a result been relentlessly negative about the vote to Leave, and the prospect of implementing it. And it is why the support of so much of the left for Remain is profoundly conservative.
Brexit  politics  uk  international 
october 2018 by juliusbeezer
Francis Fukuyama: ‘Trump instinctively picks racial themes to drive people on the left crazy’ | Books | The Guardian
“Thymos”... comes from Plato’s Republic. It represents a kind of third way for a soul instinctively divided into two competing impulses – reason and appetite – by Socrates. If the former of those two made us human and the latter kept us animal, thymos fell somewhere in between. Most translations of The Republic suggest its sense for Plato as “passion”. For his purposes, Fukuyama takes it to mean “the seat of judgements of worth”, a kind of eternal status thermostat.

The importance of thymos, he believes, is not only that it has been seriously overlooked by other political theorists. Whereas classical economics tried to explain the world in terms of individuals acting to maximise their financial self-interest, behaviouralists, thinking fast and slow, have proved that our rational capacity is often undermined by more intuitive forces. Perhaps the most powerful of these, Fukuyama insists, is the desire for respect...
“You were told Brexit was clearly going to be very costly for the British economy, therefore it would be irrational to support Brexit,” he says. “But what has been proved is not only that a lot of people voting to leave the EU didn’t care about that, [but] they were actually willing to take a hit in terms of their prosperity. The issues were cultural and they were willing to pay a price, it seems, to have greater control of immigration. In general, the mistake a lot of elites have made is that you can have a politics led by economic rationality divorced from these feelings about national identity.”
philosophy  politics  history  economics  Brexit 
september 2018 by juliusbeezer
Stockpile food in the event of a no-deal Brexit? Dream on | James Ball | Opinion | The Guardian
It would not. Anyone knowing the very basics of food production – frankly, anyone who has watched an episode of Inside the Factory on the BBC – would know just how difficult it would be for industry to stockpile food. Most UK factories rely on multiple daily deliveries to keep production, which usually runs 24 hours a day, flowing. Within just 18 to 36 hours without deliveries of ingredients, production in almost all of the UK’s food sector (the country’s largest manufacturing sector) would stop.
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Factories couldn’t just step up production before the Brexit date and store the surplus, either. They no longer have much space to store their product: the UK’s highly efficient supply chains work on a “just in time” basis – factories have just enough storage space to manage about a day’s worth of deliveries, as do supermarket depots and the warehouses in the back of stores.

Stockpiling more food would mean industry having to buy or lease vast amounts of extra space, at short notice, and probably at great cost. In practical terms, it would ideally have needed to start spending that money months ago – and it would be serious money. Part of the reason people keep less inventory is that it reduces the amount of money you need to operate. If you increase the amount of stock kept in reserve from a few days’ worth to a few weeks’ worth, businesses across the sector would need five to 10 times the working capital they do now.
food  uk  politics  Brexit 
july 2018 by juliusbeezer
Twitter
RT : I don't tell jokes in my stand up set, because I don't want to risk 52% of my audience getting up and leavi…
Brexit 
july 2018 by juliusbeezer
Brexiters seem to forget that ‘no deal’ is not legally an option | Brendan Howlin | Opinion | The Guardian
It is tempting for some British politicians to argue that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, but it is important to recall that the Good Friday agreement was signed in April 1998 and lodged with the United Nations as a formal treaty. Twenty years of relative peace and enhanced prosperity have followed, and it must surely be understandable that people on the island of Ireland are adamant that the agreement should not be a pawn in the Brexit negotiations, not least because Northern Ireland’s population voted remain.

The UK government committed on 8 December 2017 to “the avoidance of a hard border, including any physical infrastructure or related checks and controls”. Moreover, it also agreed to a backstop agreement, which means that in the absence of any other agreement “the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union which, now or in the future, support north-south cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 agreement”.

This solemn commitment must be honoured, and the EU negotiators have made it abundantly clear that until there is a robust solution for the Irish border, there will be no future agreement with the UK on trade.
Brexit  law  ireland 
july 2018 by juliusbeezer
Ministerial Resignation Statement - Dr Phillip Lee MP - Caring for Bracknell Constituency
However, as the negotiations are unfolding, two things are becoming clear.

• The practicalities, logistics and implications of leaving the EU are far more complex than was ever envisaged and certainly more complex than the people were told in 2016. The UK is not going to be ready in time, neither is the EU, and both would suffer from a rushed or fudged agreement.

• The outcome that is emerging will be neither fully to leave the EU, nor fully to stay. This is not an outcome for which anyone knowingly voted. In my view, this raises the important principle of legitimacy: I do not believe it would be right for the Government to pursue such a course without a plan to seek a confirmatory mandate for the outcome. And I believe that Parliament should have the power to ask the Government to adjust its course in the best interests of the people whom its Members represent.
Brexit  politics  uk 
june 2018 by juliusbeezer
Theresa May forced to give MPs single market vote after shock defeat | Politics | The Guardian
A Department for Exiting the European Union spokesperson said: “The referendum was a vote to take control of our borders, laws and money. Ongoing participation in the EEA would mean having to implement new EU legislation automatically and in its entirety without having a say on how it is formulated – and it would also mean continued free movement. We will now consider the implications of this decision.”
politics  uk  Brexit  funny 
may 2018 by juliusbeezer
Brexit Exposes U.K. to Worldwide Raid on Airbus Wing Production - Bloomberg
Airbus executives have hinted for months that the U.K.’s stranglehold on wing manufacturing, in place since the planemaker’s inception in 1970, isn’t guaranteed. Brexit further complicates things by threatening to add costs and complexity just as countries worldwide step up pressure on the company to win a greater share of production...
the U.K. is home to 15,000 of the company’s workers, or more than 10 percent of its overall staff. Airbus says its wing factory in the Welsh city of Broughton, a center of global aviation since it manufactured bombers during World War II, is one of its most productive. A second site in Filton, in southwest England, is mainly responsible for wing design.
aviation  Brexit 
january 2018 by juliusbeezer
Brexit labour shortage will force UK to import more fruit – winemaker | Politics | The Guardian
“The biggest potential impact of Brexit is on agricultural labour. Kent has had eastern Europeans picking fruit in recent years, but we’ll all starve if the labour issue is not sorted after Brexit.”

Tons of fruit have been left to rot in farms across the country – including in Kent, Scotland and Herefordshire – because of problems recruiting European pickers. According to the National Farmers’ Union, the horticulture industry had a 29% shortfall of seasonal workers in September.
food  uk  eu  Brexit  agriculture 
december 2017 by juliusbeezer
The consensus is clear: there is no upside to a nuclear Brexit | Clare Moody | Opinion | The Guardian
how much is at risk by leaving Euratom, and how complex this process is, given the government’s unnecessary, self-imposed deadline. This government must start listening.

Euratom, among other things, provides safeguarding inspections for all civil nuclear sites in the UK. Inspectors are employed by Euratom and many are EU nationals. It takes five years to train a nuclear inspector and there is currently a limited pool of qualified inspectors from which to recruit. As Sue Ferns, deputy general secretary of Prospect, said in her evidence to the nuclear safeguards bill committee, “this is a highly skilled, very specialist area, which is why there is such a premium on this source of labour” and this is why we must question the wisdom of the government’s actions so far.

The government plans for the Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR) to take over the role that Euratom currently carries out, but the ONR and the NIA have made clear that new arrangements will not be in place by the time we are due to leave Euratom in March 2019.
nukes  uk  Brexit 
november 2017 by juliusbeezer
LSE BREXIT – What I teach about Brexit to my (so far distinctly Eurosceptical) students
One student saw it as a useful distraction technique by universities from the contentious issues of over-inflated Vice-Chancellor’s pay. I think I have found a spin doctor.

I was most interested, however, in the following reaction. Several students argued that, if the letter was intending to ‘police’ thought on Brexit, the letter displayed a gross ignorance about the goals of higher education. A sizeable number voiced expressed dismay that they were being treated like brainless sops, soaking up propaganda uncritically, too stupid or lazy to challenge the ‘dons’. Glover’s Daily Mail piece seems to cleave to that stereotype when he writes that, all too easily, ‘young student minds could be influenced’ by Remain propaganda.

Three things have struck me during this rather unsavoury episode. The first is that the picture of my role as ‘don’ painted by some commentators does zero justice to how I conceive my day to day classroom activities.
Brexit  education  teaching 
october 2017 by juliusbeezer
The Brexit Blog: The German car industry and Brexit
Whilst the main Brexiter fantasy about the German car industry is that it will enforce a good trade deal, it also figures along with the car industries of other countries in the fantasy that Brexit will not impede inward investment. So, unsurprisingly, they greeted the news that BMW are going to build the electric Mini in the UK with great glee. But that glee was misplaced for several reasons. First, the investment is relatively small in car industry terms, involves no new production line and the main components will be built in Germany. The key issue is where car companies decide to build all-new models. Second, it does not negate the fact that car industry investment has collapsed catastrophically as a result of Brexit, from £1.66billion in 2016 to just £332M in the first half of 2017.

The real point, however, is this. No one ever claimed that Brexit would put an end to investment in the UK, just that it would reduce it. But Brexiters disparaged these and other warnings by a kind of reductio ad absurdum.
uk  politics  Brexit  driving 
october 2017 by juliusbeezer
LSE BREXIT – EU migrants: going home with skills, acumen and higher expectations
The UK is no longer as attractive to European nationals thinking of coming to live and work here. The latest quarterly figures published by the Office for National Statistics show there is a 36% increase in the number of EU citizens leaving the UK to return home permanently (to 117,000) and a 14% decrease in first-time EU entrants to the UK job market (to 247,000) compared to 2015. This negative trend is particularly pronounced for Central Europeans, who have stopped relocating to the UK. The UK’s loss is Europe’s gain: students and workers will look for opportunities at home or in other European economies. This trend increases the long-term growth prospects for Europe, to the detriment of the United Kingdom.
eu  Brexit  uk 
august 2017 by juliusbeezer
Those Brexit Negotiations – abridged – Nog's Musings
Yes, we also need this new “Union for Customs” to have a clause which lets us set up new Free Trade Deals

But none of our other 27 member states can create new trade deals whilst in the Customs Union, that’s why it’s a Customs Union

No, No, a “Union for Customs” – it’s quite different

Mon Dieu, and these new trade deals that you want to negotiate, whilst in these duplicates that we have to help create, presumably they’ll be with countries we trade with already?

Err, yes…

So you might actually undercut us and/or take away some of our market share?

Possibly…

So let me summarise: You thought you could blackmail us, but found out you can’t. You’ve finally realised you actually need the Single Market, Customs Union & other institutions (or at least the “benefits” – which is the same thing) but you can’t tell the public that, because you made impossible promises.

So, as an alternative, you want us to help duplicate (and pay for) large parts of these institutions just so your politicians can pretend the UK has left the SM & CU. But you only want these “duplicates” to be in place for a temporary period.
Brexit  funny 
august 2017 by juliusbeezer
Will Corbyn’s Decision to back Hard Brexit in Parliament Hurt Labour at the Next Election?
Evidence suggests that the increase in Labour’s vote share at the last election was driven by disgruntled Remainers, that a large fraction of Labour supporters oppose hard Brexit, and that many of these people identify more with Remain than with Labour

The pro-Remain Labour MP Chuka Umunna tabled an amendment to the Queen’s Speech that called for Britain to remain in the Single Market and the Customs Union after Brexit. However, Jeremy Corbyn ordered Labour MPs to abstain on the motion by imposing a three-line whip, thereby effectively backing May’s hard Brexit agenda. The amendment was defeated by 322 votes to 101, despite 49 Labour MPs rebelling.

Several lines of evidence suggest that Corbyn’s decision to back hard Brexit in Parliament could hurt Labour at the next election.
Brexit  politics  uk  eu  dccomment 
july 2017 by juliusbeezer
May unveils offer on EU citizens - BBC News
EU citizens who have lived in the UK for five years could get equal rights to UK nationals for good, under proposals unveiled by PM Theresa May.

A new "settled EU" immigration status would grant them rights to stay in the UK and access health, education and other benefits after Brexit.

But Theresa May said proposals would be adopted only if the same rights were granted to UK citizens in EU states...
But Downing Street has not yet specified what "cut off" date will be for new residents, after which the guarantee would no longer apply. It will be no earlier than March 2017, when the UK formally began leaving the EU by issuing the Article 50 notification, and no later than the British departure in March 2019.

Those arriving after the cut-off date but before March 2019 would have a "grace period" - expected to be two years - to regularise their immigration status, with a view to later seeking settled status.
eu  politics  uk  Brexit 
june 2017 by juliusbeezer
Donald Trump's North Korea 'armada' gaffe was dangerous buffoonery | Richard Wolffe | Opinion | The Guardian
1 2

Brexit meant different things to different people they visualized their own version of what brexit would look like all the way from so soft you'll barely notice [… to …] raving racist loons. Undoubtedly it was pretty dumb because they had no way of knowing what brexit they were gonna get.
Trump was not open to interpretation he is painfully aggressively stupid. People couldn't project their own idealized version of trump onto trump if they actually listened to him for 5 minutes. I'm not talking about his supposed political positions or what passed for his policy proposals but where actually just chants I'm talking his painfully painfully obvious unrelenting stupidity and his extreme, and I meen so extreme he is a caricature of himself, narcissism and megalomania so extreme that it is clearly a serious psychological disorder. A disorder so extreme that he distorts reality so much that when he is confronted with video of himself directley contradicting or outright lying he cannot accept objective reality because his pysche is damaged that he beleives thar the truth the real is whatever he is saying at that exact moment. This was there for everyone to my god its all anybody talked for like a year he was all the TV channels doing this for a year.

Brexit was dumb and people should have though a bit more about pressed more to be sure what they were voting for. With trump there is literally no way you could not know what you were voting for because he made it so painfully clear that he was a pathological liar with a severe severe personality disorder when people who suffer from this condition are highly intelligent it can often be difficult to detect because their lies are so detailed and convincing and they are able to make you question your own objective observations. But trump is not smart he is achingly painfully dumb he has the voculabulary of a five year he contradicts himself multiple times in the same sentence he talks about him self constantly, constantly and if he talking about how great he is he is talking about how other people say how great he is. He declared that nobody knew how difficult Healthcare Reform was going to be or how after Xi explained north Korea to him for ten minutes that if wasn't nearly as simple as he thought. He made these statements without even the tiniest bit of comprehension that they made him sound like a complete and utter moron. That's how stupid he his. And still 60 million people vote for him that is even more stupid.
commenting  politics  Brexit 
april 2017 by juliusbeezer
Why is she frit? | openDemocracy
the EU have told the May government that if this is what the UK wants it is fine by the EU; however, the UK will have to remain within the full legal framework of the EU and this is non-negotiable.

In short, what has changed is nothing to do with Westminster, or the balance of power in the UK. It has dawned on the Prime Minister that by the time of a 2020 election, instead of the UK having left the EU with a trading agreement as she dreamt, it will still be paying its dues and paying a large leaving bill and still be under European Court jurisdiction and may still even have to accept free movement. Only by 2022 at best can she hope to have realised her Brexit.

The EU response to their Article 50 letter ruined May's 2020 election scenario. To have simply pushed ahead meant an election suffering the worst of all worlds,
Brexit  eu  uk  politics 
april 2017 by juliusbeezer
LSE BREXIT – ‘The public mood could change’: Q&A with Roland Rudd, chair of Open Britain
The real Brexit process has yet to begin, so it is unsurprising that there has not been a major shift in public opinion. But exclusive polling carried out for Open Britain has shown that a majority of Leave voters are not willing to become a penny worse off as a result of Brexit, or as a result of reductions in immigration. We have also set out the ten major promises made by the Government for which they must be held to account. So as the process begins in earnest, it is plausible that the public mood could change as people see the damage to our economy the Government’s hard Brexit path will cause, and how far away the reality is from the rhetoric.
Brexit  uk  politics 
april 2017 by juliusbeezer
May's real reason for calling election? To show EU that Brexit really means Brexit | Patrick Wintour | Politics | The Guardian
This belief that the UK not only made the wrong decision, and can yet be persuaded not to go through with it, gripped Europe’s leadership from the start. Angela Merkel’s chief of staff, Peter Altmaier, in the immediate wake of the referendum last June said politicians in London “should have the possibility to reconsider the consequences of an exit”. There is after all a long European history of second EU referendums in the wake of “incorrect results”, including in Ireland and France.

As recently as March, Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU commission president, said he hoped the UK would rejoin the EU. “The day will come when the UK will re-enter the EU boat,” he said. The European parliament’s chief negotiator, Guy Verhofstadt, predicted in a recent speech in Brussels that young Britons would come to see the referendum as a “catfight in the Conservative party that got out of hand” and described Brexit as “a loss of time, a waste of energy, stupidity”.
eu  uk  politics  Brexit 
april 2017 by juliusbeezer
May's Brexit plan is falling apart and the press are talking about Easter eggs
today the message is rather different. The prime minister has admitted it cannot be done.

EU Council negotiation guidelines published last Friday said that Britain would sign any trade deal as a third party, after it had left the EU, under Article 218 of the EU Treaty. Today, Sky News' Faisal Islam got May to admit that she would have to abide by that timetable rather than her own.

There have been many months of Brexit critics suggesting that the timetable was impossible and that we should explore alternatives before it started. That might take the form of a seven-year transitional EEA agreement to suck the uncertainty out of negotiations, or by going into talks with a transitional deal front-and-centre, so we could neutralise the EU's time advantage. This advice was treated as a Remainer plot to stop Brexit and was consequently ignored.

Now the prime minister has embroiled herself in a negotiation in which we are at a disadvantage in terms of time and negotiating capacity. There will of course be no admission from Brexit MPs about this. They fixate on the one prediction economists got wrong - the surprising resilience of consumer spending
Brexit  eu  politics  uk 
april 2017 by juliusbeezer
LSE BREXIT – ‘They can move’ – or can they? Freedom of movement, Brexit and working-class stasis
But let us also consider why some people are not free to move. People who move place or class (and the two often go together) tend to have subtle advantages. To move takes resources—and not just a travel fare or formal education. Moving takes a mind for complexity, an imagination for ambition, a stomach for homesickness—and a readiness to risk rejection.

This is how, for all the discrimination they experience, immigrants and their children in England can have resources those left-behind lack. At school, ethnic minority working-class boys fare better than their white counterparts, while more diverse inner London schools do better than majority white ones. Experiences vary, especially by class, but perhaps minorities have pushier parents who didn’t leave home for nothing. Perhaps, with family abroad, they have a mental map that orientates them in a global world; tastes that readily cross cultures. So total is England’s class system, categorising people on every preference and pronunciation, you can be lucky if, by ethnic difference, you don’t neatly into it.
immigration  sociology  Brexit 
february 2017 by juliusbeezer
Over 120,000 Leave voters have died since Brexit | ShortList Magazine
And if that weren’t interesting enough, one of the most fun aspects of Steve’s data is the bluntness with which he’s labelled ‘voters now dead.’ Just look at that stat: 123,411 of them all estimated to have died since taking to the voting booths. Comparatively, his data suggests less than 30,000 of those who voted Remain have now bitten the dust, working out to almost a 100,000 difference.
eu  politics  Brexit 
february 2017 by juliusbeezer
LSE BREXIT – Can ‘Global Britain’ forge a better trade deal with South Korea? This is why it’s unlikely
1) The UK outside the EU will be a ‘second tier’ player when it comes to negotiating free trade agreements, considerably weaker than the ‘big three’, of the US, the EU, and China;

2) It will be easier for the UK to sign trade deals with the 53 countries with which the UK already has free trade agreements, via its current EU membership;

3) One of the countries high on this list will be South Korea, which has a very comprehensive FTA with the EU, covering services and non-tariff barriers, which has already reaped important benefits to both the UK and South Korea;

4) But, South Korea will be reluctant to replicate the terms of the EU-South Korea FTA for the UK, because it would expect a better deal with the UK than it managed to negotiate with the EU (because the EU has an economy 10 times larger than South Korea, whereas the UK economy is only twice the size of South Korea);
Brexit  eu  uk  korea  politics 
february 2017 by juliusbeezer
Britain Jumps Into a Brexit Wonderland - The New Yorker
For the City of London and British industries with close ties to Europe, such a “hard Brexit” represents a grave threat. Already, bankers in Frankfurt and Dublin are talking about poaching business and talent from their London-based competitors. Reflecting the blow to Britain’s competitiveness, the value of the pound sterling has fallen sharply since the referendum. In the short run, this has helped cushion the blow to the economy by making British exports cheaper, and G.D.P. growth has held up better than many analysts expected.

Over the long term, though, the United Kingdom faces the prospect of being a small open economy with a vulnerable currency and a persistent trade deficit. Britons with a long memory, of whom there don’t seem to be very many, will recall that during the nineteen-eighties it was exactly this uncomfortable set of circumstances that prompted Margaret Thatcher, who was hardly a lover of the Brussels bureaucracy, to support the single-market project, which eventually led to the E.U. we see today.
eu  uk  politics  Brexit  funny 
february 2017 by juliusbeezer
Brexit will delay new British nuclear power stations, warn experts | Business | The Guardian
“Leaving Euratom is a lose-lose for everyone. For nuclear proponents, the industry becomes less competitive – and for nuclear critics, safety regulation diminishes,” said Dr Paul Dorfman of the Energy Institute at University College London.

“The UK nuclear industry is critically dependent on European goods and services in the nuclear supply chain and their specialist nuclear skills. Leaving Euratom will inevitably increase nuclear costs and will mean further delays.”
nukes  Brexit 
january 2017 by juliusbeezer
LSE BREXIT – No longer welcome: the EU academics in Britain told to ‘make arrangements to leave’
The first thing that struck me was the level of fear, anger and disgust – and in some cases resignation. I have disguised individual cases – that’s because few people are willing to speak openly, such is the degree of fear about what might happen after Brexit.
The impact on individuals

Some EU academics (along with others) who have been living and working legally in the UK for years decided, after June 23, that they should try to cement their position by applying for one or other of the various routes to permanent residency. The procedures are daunting and of Kafkaesque complexity – one form runs to 85 pages and requires forms of proof that make acquiring Catholic sainthood look simple. As a result many applications are failing – but it is the form of the rejection that is causing much concern. A typical letter from the Home Office says (in part):

“As you appear to have no alternative basis of stay in the United Kingdom you should now make arrangements to leave. If you fail to make a voluntary departure a separate decision may be made at a later date to enforce your removal…”
eu  academic  scholarly  uk  Brexit 
january 2017 by juliusbeezer
Twitter
Telling anecdote by on diff between British&other counties' attitude to EU.Neither exactly healthy
Brexit 
september 2016 by juliusbeezer
Twitter
'Telegram' of the Day (satire):
Brexit 
june 2016 by juliusbeezer
Ne me quitte pas - Jacques Brel - French and English subtitles.mp4 - YouTube
Un peu étonné par le référendum , mes chères voisines voudraient passer le message suivant aux anglais :
Brexit 
march 2016 by juliusbeezer
Register to vote - GOV.UK
Thought you had to live in a constituency to vote in UK. But no. EU-resident UK citizens sign here , say no 2
Brexit 
march 2016 by juliusbeezer

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