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Philip E. Tetlock - Wikipedia
He has written several non-fiction books at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior, including Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction; Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?; Unmaking the West: What-if Scenarios that Rewrite World History; and Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics. Tetlock is also co-principal investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a multi-year study of the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments of high-stakes, real-world events.
may 2018 by kkennedy
Wrong Tomorrow - time vs. pundits
FTA: 'When someone makes a prediction, people post it to the site along with a brief description and a URL. We monitor it and change its status to true or false when appropriate.'
predictions  future  history 
april 2009 by kkennedy
As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.
Ooookay. Definitely worth a followup in 2010. Here in Georgia, I'll be a member of the "Texas Republic", which will be "part of Mexico or under Mexican influence". Right. I'm thinking it's as or more likely that Mexico will have disintegrated by then.
wsj  future  followup  predictions  politics  culture 
december 2008 by kkennedy
Charlie's Diary: Shaping the future
Putting it all together...'10Tb is an interesting number. That's a megabit for every second in a year — there are roughly 10 million seconds per year. That's enough to store a live DivX video stream — compressed a lot relative to a DVD, but the same overall resolution — of everything I look at for a year, including time I spend sleeping, or in the bathroom. Realistically, with multiplexing, it puts three or four video channels and a sound channel and other telemetry — a heart monitor, say, a running GPS/Galileo location signal, everything I type and every mouse event I send — onto that chip, while I'm awake. All the time. It's a life log; replay it and you've got a journal file for my life. Ten euros a year in 2027, or maybe a thousand euros a year in 2017. (Cheaper if we use those pesky rotating hard disks — it's actually about five thousand euros if we want to do this right now.) '
future  geek  history  society  predictions 
may 2007 by kkennedy
Long Now: Seminars About Long Term Thinking -- Philip Tetlock
The Long Now's most recent SALT talk, by Philip Tetlock: "Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs" is one of the best yet. DEFINITELY listen to this if you are interesting in long-term forecasting, prediction markets, etc.
followup  longnow  predictions 
february 2007 by kkennedy
PS3 To Win The Console War
Research and Markets: - Tech News - - Science & Technology
predictions  gaming 
january 2007 by kkennedy

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