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Why Amazon will triple to $5,000 a share, according to the this hedge fund manager - MarketWatch
MarketWatch
Our call of the day, from Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners Management, who predicts Amazon shares, currently at $1,818, could more than triple in a few years. Read the full story
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Why  Amazon  will  triple  to  $5_000  a  share_  according  the  this  hedge  fund  manager  -  MarketWatch  AMZN  needsEditing  Interesting  Reading  InterestingReading  Komal  Neha  Sonu  &  Neeraj 
april 2019 by neerajsinghvns
How the new tax law creates a ‘perfect storm’ for Roth IRA conversions - MarketWatch
tags: How the new tax law creates a ‘perfect storm’ for Roth IRA conversions - MarketWatch | READ comments
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You are mistaken. 401k and IRA are separate contributions with their own limits. You can max out your 401k and still do maximum contribution to your IRA (either traditional or Roth.) Anyways, In my opinion, its inevitable Roth's will be taxed in the future when too many of us middle class peasants start not paying taxes on income. The Roth scam worked great when only the Rich knew about it, but there is no way the gov't is going to let ordinary people avoid taxes.
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Bert MLeader
20hEdited
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You should convert as much as you can up to the max limit of 12% tax bracket. When you start SS at whatever age or start RMDs at 70.5, depending on your income, you may be in the higher 22% tax bracket. I can convert about $14k per year right now from age 62 to 66, but when I start SS at 66, I will have to stop converting because it will bump me into the 22% tax bracket and will make my stock dividends taxed at 15%. My dividends are taxed at 0% right now.
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DMC XXXXXLeader
8 Aug
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am in a higher tax bracket and now retired 10 years--
I have one rental, one pension, 2 roths and one IRA, 2 SS checks.

My income is 33% higher than the year I retired.

I intend to convert the one IRA (400K) to a roth this year or over 4 years. That IRA id adding 15 to 18 K to my taxable income each year.
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RISHIYUR MOHAN
31 Jul
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A few observations about Roth IRA/conversions:
Remember, the holy grail of Social Security benefits were not taxable until it was changed under the leadership of Republican President Reagan in 1984. So what's to prevent future Presidents and Congress, of any political persuasion, from dipping into Roth withdrawals in the future?
I have heard that its not advisable to pay Roth conversion taxes with pre-tax(IRA) funds. If you do ,your retirement nest egg takes an immediate dip based on your tax rate (e.g. 20% tax rate will be $200K on a $1000K amount). You may not have to pay taxes on withdrawals but future returns will have to make up for the reduction in asset base.
If you are in pre-medicare status and are retired with ACA health coverage, watch out!! The premium subsidies vanish if you go even $1 above the allowable taxable income limit. For example, monthly premium could jump from $300/month to $1500/month if taxable income is not closely monitored.
So the question is - in a specific individual's situation, a Roth conversion could be a benefit or a major losing proposition.
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Mike Grant
30 Jul
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I agree way to many variables. I am really surprised that most people would be in a higher tax bracket when they retire. I have figured it out for my wife and I and we will be living on 50% of our current income. Once the kids are gone and we downsize it won't even be close. Maximizing all the tax deductions I can get while we are working is by far our best option. It may not be for you, but it's not nearly as cut and dry as the article would suggest
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jon deanInfluencerMike Grant
31 Jul
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I thought that I'd be in a lower tax bracket when I retired. Didn't do the math; should have. I'm in a higher tax bracket because the last decade that I worked, I was maxing out contributions to a 401K and a 357 retirement savings plan, plus a health savings plan. Combined, all those deductions from my pay put me in a lower bracket. Now, over 70, even those RMDs put me in a higher bracket when combined with my SS and pensions.
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Bert MLeaderMike Grant
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Most retirees are not in a higher tax bracket after retirement. A very small percentage may be in higher tax brackets due to large RMDs. For example, I am 62, retired since age 59 and have $111k per year income. I have $10k Roth dividends (not taxed) and $38k in stock dividends at 0% tax rate. If you deduct the $24k married deduction, I'm only paying tax on $39k for a 4% overall tax rate. I haven't started my SS or RMDs yet, so my tax rate will go up, but I probably will never be paying a higher tax rate from when I was working.
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How  the  new  tax  law  creates  a  ‘perfect  storm’  for  Roth  IRA  conversions  -  MarketWatch  |  read  comments 
august 2018 by neerajsinghvns
These 5 tech stocks are in a dot-com-like bubble (and they aren’t all FAANGs) - MarketWatch
These 5 tech stocks are in a dot-com-like bubble (and they aren’t all FAANGs)
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Spot the micro bubbles.
Although the overall stock market looks reasonably valued, there are pockets of extraordinary risk where stocks with 2000-bubble-like valuations lurk.
Specifically, there is a “micro bubble” in certain tech stocks, where valuations reflect expectations for future cash flows that would require unrealistically high margins, growth, and market share. These expectations might not be so “bubbly” if not for the fact that the current margins and cash flows of these companies have trended at very low or negative levels for years.
5 tech stocks in a micro bubble
Figure 1 lists the five tech stocks we put in our first micro bubble. They share a few key characteristics:
• Low or negative return on invested capital (ROIC) and free cash flow
• Unrealistically high valuations: all 10 companies either have negative economic book values, or they have a PEBV above 20
• Expectations that they achieve heretofore unseen dominant market shares
These are five of the largest micro-bubble companies. Briefly, here’s what makes each of these companies part of the micro-bubble.
Amazon
Fun fact: Amazon’s AMZN, +0.20% $885 billion market cap is higher than Walmart WMT, +0.45% Home Depot HD, +0.69% Oracle ORCL, -0.39% and Disney DIS, +0.53% combined. Investors are betting that Amazon can grow to dominate multiple industries while earning significantly higher margins than it does now.
Amazon has finally shown an ability to earn a profit, but it still must grow net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) by 30% compounded annually for 19 years to justify its current valuation. See the math behind this dynamic DCF scenario. For comparison, only six companies in the S&P 500 SPX, +0.28% managed to grow NOPAT by 30% compounded annually for just the past 10 years. Maintaining that growth rate for nearly double that time frame would be an extraordinary feat.
Amazon prefers to point investors to free cash flow, but its reported free cash flow numbers are an illusion. In reality, the company continues to experience significant cash outflows.
Investors who focus on understanding true cash flow and fundamentals know the disconnect between actual cash flow and the market’s expectations for future cash flows borders on the absurd.
Netflix
Netflix NFLX, +0.16% has become one of the leading creators of original content, but it’s done so with an unsustainable cost structure. As this excellent video from The Ringer explains, Netflix earns an accounting profit, but only because its reported content costs understate its actual content spending by about 50%. The company continues to lose billions of dollars a year and grows increasingly dependent on the high-yield debt market.
Felix Salmon of Slate recently published a piece titled “Netflix Can Either Become the Dominant Media Monopoly of the 21st Century or Go Bust.” The market values Netflix as if it will be that dominant monopoly when, frankly, there’s a very good chance it goes bust. Risk/reward for this stock is so bad that no investor with any respect for fundamentals can own this stock in good conscience.
Salesforce.com
Salesforce CRM, +1.21% has racked up losses for years while pursuing growth at any cost. The theory behind this strategy is that the company will eventually be able to cut back heavily on its marketing and R&D costs while maintaining its recurring revenue stream.
Even if this strategy does work, which is far from certain, the company is currently valued at 10 times revenue, or double the valuation of Oracle. This hasn’t dissuaded bulls, as Salesforce generates classic tech bubble-style headlines like “Ignore Salesforce’s Valuation.” In other words, they want investors to ignore fundamentals.
Tesla
Tesla TSLA, -1.09% currently has a higher market cap than GM GM, -0.05% despite selling about 1% as many cars in 2017. What’s more, GM is already ahead of Tesla in self-driving technology and rapidly catching up when it comes to electric vehicle production.
Elon Musk keeps promising that Tesla will revolutionize the auto industry, but so far Tesla hasn’t shown an ability to navigate the manufacturing logistics that the established auto makers figured out decades ago. The company’s valuation is blind to fundamentals and seems entirely focused on the cult of personality that has built up around Musk.
Read: Tesla confirms intention to go private, sending stock up 11%
Spotify
Spotify Technology SPOT, -0.24% wants to disrupt the music industry, but so far it remains beholden to the Big Three record labels that own 85% of the music streamed on its platform. The market thinks of Spotify as a trendy tech company, but as we wrote in our report on the stock, the economics of its business are more similar to the movie theater industry.
Spotify’s leverage against the record labels is further weakened by the rapid growth of competitors like Apple Music AAPL, -0.08% It’s hard to see how Spotify can justify the growth expectations implied by its valuation unless it could pull off the unlikely feat of taking over ownership of its content from the labels while holding off competition from other streaming services (all without having to overspend like Netflix has).
Again, we see a company where the valuation reflects the best-case scenario with little to no tether to fundamentals.
How to bet against the micro bubble
Investors that want to bet against these micro-bubble stocks can short them directly, but that can be expensive and risky for these momentum-driven companies. As the saying goes, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Another way to profit from the busting of this micro bubble is to invest in the incumbents from which these companies must take major chunks of market share. When these micro-bubble stocks fall back to earth, a great deal of capital should be reallocated to the incumbents.
Macro bubbles vs. micro bubbles
Today’s market has some micro bubbles, or smaller groups of overhyped stocks trading at ridiculous valuations.That makes it very different from the tech bubble, which was a macro bubble, a marketwide phenomenon that distorted the valuation of the entire market.
A few new features are shaping the market now and explain why today’s bubbles are unlikely to spread to the entire market, at least for the foreseeable future:
• Politicians and policy makers are focused on preventing macro market crashes. Today’s politicians and policy makers are heavily shaped by both the housing bubble of the mid-2000s and the tech bubble of the late 1990s. They will likely do everything in their power to prevent recurrence of such cataclysmic events on their watch.
• Rising influence of noise traders. Noise traders, who make investment decisions based on noise and have no regard for fundamentals, are an increasingly influential force in today’s market. Roughly a quarter of all U.S. adults with internet access are retail online traders. That’s around 50 million investors who don’t have professional trading (much less investing) experience and might be more susceptible to buying into “story” stocks without understanding the fundamentals. There’s power in those numbers.
• Overhyping “transformative” technology. The splintering of online media has led journalists to overhype nearly every new technology and trend in a relentless competition for clicks. For example, despite the “Retail Apocalypse” narrative, brick-and-mortar sales still account for 90% of retail sales, and Walmart earned nearly three times more revenue than Amazon last year. In reality, very few new technologies are as transformative as we like to imagine.
• Value transfer vs. value creation. Too many investors overestimate the value-creation opportunities for new technologies. Even when technologies are transformative, predicting who will reap the benefits of these technologies is difficult. Often, most of the value accrues to end users/consumers and not corporations. When it does accrue to a company, it’s usually at the expense of another company. During the tech bubble, bulls believed the internet would make our economy radically more productive and allow the GDP growth rate of around 5% in the late 90’s to persist for many years. When this utopian future failed to materialize, the market collapsed. By contrast, today’s micro-bubble companies compete against firmly established incumbents from which they must take large chunks of market share to survive. Instead of adding value, these companies aim to take value from existing players. Even if they succeed, we think much of that value will eventually pass to consumers.
This last point is key. In 1999, investors gave Microsoft MSFT, -0.10% its absurdly high valuation because they believed its software would create enormous amounts of value and growth for thousands of other companies. On the other hand, Tesla’s sky-high valuation implies it will take market share away from General Motors and Ford F, +0.50% which decreases the valuation of those companies.
These modern-day micro bubbles reflect the zero-sum nature of today’s crowded and more mature competitive landscapes.
Why we’re not in a macro bubble
Figure 2 sums up the difference between the tech bubble and today’s market pretty clearly. It shows the price to economic book value (PEBV) of the largest 1,000 U.S. stocks by market cap going back to 2000. PEBV compares the current valuation of a company compared to the zero-growth value of its cash flows, i.e. NOPAT, so a higher PEBV means the market expects more future cash flow growth.
While the market’s PEBV has more than doubled since 2012, from 0.7 to 1.5, it’s nowhere close to its tech bubble level of 5.7.
There are definitely some outrageously valued companies out there, but those high valuations … [more]
If  it  is  something  urgent_  after  you  send  me  the  details  by  email_  please  contact  text.  These  5  tech  stocks  are  in  a  dot-com-like  bubble  (and  they  aren’t  all  FAANGs)  -  MarketWatch  Amazon  AMZN  Netflix  NFLX  Crm  salesForce  Spotify  Tesla  TSLA  dotComLike 
august 2018 by neerajsinghvns

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