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Saturday assorted links - Marginal REVOLUTION
2. Who are the workers most needing support and how can we get cash to them?

3. Recommended occupational licensing reforms. And Certificate of Need and nurse practitioner laws. And the case for relaxing pharmacy regulations.

4. Why did U.S. testing get so held up? (quite good)

5. Covid-19 forecasting site from The Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford.

6. How slim are restaurant margins?

...

8. On why the German death rate is lower.

9. New Haven asks for coronavirus housing help, Yale says no.

10. Are Italian deaths being undercounted? And it seems Spanish deaths are being undercounted (in Spanish).

11. Japan now admits the situation there is much worse than had been recognized.
econotariat  marginal-rev  links  current-events  wuhan-coronavirus  regulation  usa  checking  medicine  public-health  error  ratty  bostrom  org:ngo  miri-cfar  prediction  economics  money  cost-benefit  data  objektbuch  food  business  europe  germanic  death  pro-rata  mediterranean  map-territory  japan  asia  twitter  social  commentary  quotes  statesmen  northeast  higher-ed 
4 days ago
95%-ile isn't that good
Some meta-techniques for improving:
Get feedback and practice
- Ideally from an expert coach but, if not, this can be from a layperson or even yourself (if you have some way of recording/tracing what you're doing)
Guided exercises or exercises with solutions
- This is very easy to find in books for "old" games, like chess or Bridge.
- For particular areas, you can often find series of books that have these, e.g., in math, books in the Springer Undergraduate Mathematics Series (SUMS) tend to have problems with solutions
techtariat  dan-luu  rhetoric  contrarianism  aphorism  quality  success  learning  practice  ranking  arbitrage  wire-guided  programming  engineering  lifehack  productivity  working-stiff  workflow  metabuch  error 
7 weeks ago
Square Signals : Successful habits through smoothly ratcheting...
But in 2017, I shifted strategies and successfully built four new habits (of five attempted): piano practice, internetless mornings, carbless workdays, and meditation. In past years I’d feel lucky if I built just one new habit! I’d like to share my approach: smoothly ratcheted targets, in moving weekly windows, with teeth. Before I unpack that, let’s cover some background.
techtariat  michael-nielsen  advice  recommendations  habit  productivity  discipline  self-control  smoothness  wire-guided  🦉  metabuch  checklists  growth  track-record  reflection  reinforcement  quantified-self  software  critique  ui  ux  beeminder 
9 weeks ago
As We May Think - Wikipedia
"As We May Think" is a 1945 essay by Vannevar Bush which has been described as visionary and influential, anticipating many aspects of information society. It was first published in The Atlantic in July 1945 and republished in an abridged version in September 1945—before and after the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Bush expresses his concern for the direction of scientific efforts toward destruction, rather than understanding, and explicates a desire for a sort of collective memory machine with his concept of the memex that would make knowledge more accessible, believing that it would help fix these problems. Through this machine, Bush hoped to transform an information explosion into a knowledge explosion.[1]

https://twitter.com/michael_nielsen/status/979193577229004800
https://archive.is/FrF8Q
https://archive.is/19hHT
https://archive.is/G7yLl
https://archive.is/wFbbj
A few notes on Vannevar Bush's amazing essay, "As We May Think", from the 1945(!) @TheAtlantic :

https://twitter.com/andy_matuschak/status/1147928384510390277
https://archive.is/tm6fB
https://archive.is/BIok9
When I first read As We May Think* as a teenager, I was astonished by how much it predicted of the computer age in 1945—but recently I’ve been feeling wistful about some pieces it predicts which never came to pass. [thread]

*

http://ceasarbautista.com/posts/memex_meetup_2.html
wiki  org:mag  essay  big-peeps  history  mostly-modern  classic  ideas  worrydream  exocortex  thinking  network-structure  graphs  internet  structure  notetaking  design  skunkworks  multi  techtariat  twitter  social  discussion  reflection  backup  speedometer  software  org:junk  michael-nielsen 
9 weeks ago
Zettlr | "Wtf is a Zettelkasten?"
The Zettelkasten Manifesto
In case you're still wondering what a Zettelkasten is and you need a little bit more incentives to get started, please have a look at a video we've made earlier this week, where we outline why the notion of a Zettelkasten has become so intrinsically linked to the name of Niklas Luhmann, why we think that this is bad and how we think we should think of Zettelkästen:
techtariat  org:com  project  software  tools  exocortex  notetaking  workflow  thinking  dbs  structure  network-structure  critique  graphs  stay-organized  germanic  metabuch 
11 weeks ago
Michael Akilian: Worker-in-the-loop Retrospective
Over the last ten years, many companies have created human-in-the-loop services that combine a mix of humans and algorithms. Now that some time has passed, we can tease out some patterns from their collective successes and failures. As someone who started a company in this space, my hope is that this retrospective can help prospective founders, investors, or companies navigating this space save time and fund more impactful projects.

A service is considered human-in-the-loop if it organizes its workflows with the intent to introduce models or heuristics that learn from the work of the humans executing the workflows. In this post, I will make reference to two common forms of human-in-the-loop:

User-in-the-loop (UITL): The end-user is interacting with suggestions from a software heuristic/ML system.
Worker-in-the-loop (WITL): A worker is paid to monitor suggestions from a software heuristic/ML system developed by the same company that pays the worker, but for the ultimate benefit of an end-user.
techtariat  reflection  business  tech  postmortem  automation  startups  hard-tech  ai  machine-learning  human-ml  cost-benefit  analysis  thinking  business-models  things  dimensionality  exploratory  markets  labor  economics  tech-infrastructure  gig-econ 
11 weeks ago
Depreciation Calculator - Insurance Claims Tools & Databases - Claims Pages
depreciation calculator for different product categories/commodities (tbh I would prefer just a table of rates)
tools  calculator  personal-finance  money  increase-decrease  flux-stasis  cost-benefit  economics  time  correlation  manifolds  data  database  objektbuch  quality 
12 weeks ago
The role of exercise capacity in the health and longevity of centenarians
Life-long spontaneous exercise does not prolong lifespan but improves health span in mice: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24472376
Life-long spontaneous exercise did not prolong longevity but prevented several signs of frailty (that is, decrease in strength, endurance and motor coordination).
Survival of the fittest: VO2max, a key predictor of longevity?: https://www.bioscience.org/2018/v23/af/4657/2.htm
7. CONCLUSION

As yet, it is not possible to extend the genetically fixed lifespan with regular exercise training, but the chance to reach the later end of natural lifespan increases with higher physical fitness in midlife, where targeted preventative efforts may be launched. CRF (VO2max) is the strongest independent predictor of future life expectancy in both healthy and cardiorespiratory-diseased individuals. In addition, muscle stimulation is essential in order to prevent muscle wasting, disability, and increased hospitalization in old age, all crucial ways to avoid long-term care, thereby promoting quality of life in aging humans (Figure 2). Thus, extending life is not as important as giving those years more life. This is where physical fitness plays an important role.
study  survey  health  fitness  fitsci  longevity  aging  embodied  death  multi  model-organism  endurance  metabolic  metrics  epidemiology  public-health  regularizer  cost-benefit 
january 2020
The combination of cardiorespiratory fitness and muscle strength, and mortality risk | SpringerLink
Compared with the lowest CRF category, the hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality was 0.76 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64–0.89] and 0.65 (95% CI 0.55–0.78) for the middle and highest CRF categories, respectively, after adjustment for confounders and GS. The highest GS category had an HR of 0.79 (95% CI 0.66–0.95) for all-cause mortality compared with the lowest, after adjustment for confounders and CRF. Similar results were found for cardiovascular and cancer mortality. The HRs for the combination of highest CRF and GS were 0.53 (95% CI 0.39–0.72) for all-cause mortality and 0.31 (95% CI 0.14–0.67) for cardiovascular mortality, compared with the reference category of lowest CRF and GS: no significant association for cancer mortality (HR 0.70; 95% CI 0.48–1.02). CRF and GS are both independent predictors of mortality. Improving both CRF and muscle strength, as opposed to either of the two alone, may be the most effective behavioral strategy to reduce all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk.

Cardiorespiratory fitness, muscular strength, and obesity in adolescence and later chronic disability due to cardiovascular disease: a cohort study of 1 million men: https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/advance-article/doi/10.1093/eurheartj/ehz774/5618700
This population-based cohort study included 1 078 685 male adolescents (16–19 years) from the Swedish military conscription register from 1972 to 1994. Cardiorespiratory fitness (bicycle ergometer test), muscular strength (knee extension strength), and BMI were measured during the conscription examination. Information about disability pension due to CVD was retrieved from the Social Insurance Agency during a mean follow-up of 28.4 years. Cardiorespiratory fitness was strongly and inversely associated with later risk of chronic CVD disability for all investigated causes. The association was particularly strong for ischaemic heart diseases (hazard ratio 0.11, 95% confidence interval 0.05–0.29 for highest vs. lowest fitness-quintiles). Furthermore, overweight/obesity were associated with CVD disability for all investigated causes. Conversely, associations of muscular strength with CVD disability were generally weak.

Association between V̇O2max, handgrip strength, and musculoskeletal pain among construction and health care workers: https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-017-4173-3
study  epidemiology  public-health  health  fitness  fitsci  longevity  aging  embodied  endurance  metabolic  evidence-based  weightlifting  multi  metrics  solid-study  nordic  longitudinal  cardio  cost-benefit 
january 2020
Do Cardio and Strength Training Work Against Each Other? | ISSA
- If the client’s primary goal is to improve power (e.g. improving sprint speed, vertical jumping, Olympic Lifting, etc.), long duration/low intensity aerobic training should be kept to a minimum.

- If the client’s primary goal is to improve strength and/or hypertrophy and he/she wishes to train concurrently with aerobic training, it is best to keep the duration of aerobic training to less than 30 minutes and the frequency of aerobic training to fewer than 3 days per week. Furthermore, a low-impact mode of aerobic training such as cycling or rowing appears to be a more appropriate option than running.

...

- If the client’s primary goal is to improve aerobic performance, concurrent training is advisable as resistance training has not been shown to significantly interfere with aerobic capacity gains.

https://sci-hub.tw/10.1519/JSC.0b013e31823a3e2d
org:health  health  fitness  fitsci  get-fit  evidence-based  study  summary  commentary  tradeoffs  endurance  weightlifting  strategy  running  multi  pdf  piracy  meta-analysis  intervention  metabolic  embodied  cycling  metrics  cost-benefit 
january 2020
Climate Change Worst-Case Scenario Now Looks Unrealistic
As best as we can understand and project the medium- and long-term trajectories of energy use and emissions, the window of possible climate futures is probably narrowing, with both the most optimistic scenarios and the most pessimistic ones seeming, now, less likely.
news  org:mag  org:local  environment  climate-change  trends  current-events  prediction  cost-benefit 
december 2019
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