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95%-ile isn't that good
Some meta-techniques for improving:
Get feedback and practice
- Ideally from an expert coach but, if not, this can be from a layperson or even yourself (if you have some way of recording/tracing what you're doing)
Guided exercises or exercises with solutions
- This is very easy to find in books for "old" games, like chess or Bridge.
- For particular areas, you can often find series of books that have these, e.g., in math, books in the Springer Undergraduate Mathematics Series (SUMS) tend to have problems with solutions
techtariat  dan-luu  rhetoric  contrarianism  aphorism  quality  success  learning  practice  ranking  arbitrage  wire-guided  programming  engineering  lifehack  productivity  working-stiff  workflow  metabuch  error 
11 days ago
Square Signals : Successful habits through smoothly ratcheting...
But in 2017, I shifted strategies and successfully built four new habits (of five attempted): piano practice, internetless mornings, carbless workdays, and meditation. In past years I’d feel lucky if I built just one new habit! I’d like to share my approach: smoothly ratcheted targets, in moving weekly windows, with teeth. Before I unpack that, let’s cover some background.
techtariat  michael-nielsen  advice  recommendations  habit  productivity  discipline  self-control  smoothness  wire-guided  🦉  metabuch  checklists  growth  track-record  reflection  reinforcement  quantified-self  software  critique  ui  ux  beeminder 
24 days ago
As We May Think - Wikipedia
"As We May Think" is a 1945 essay by Vannevar Bush which has been described as visionary and influential, anticipating many aspects of information society. It was first published in The Atlantic in July 1945 and republished in an abridged version in September 1945—before and after the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Bush expresses his concern for the direction of scientific efforts toward destruction, rather than understanding, and explicates a desire for a sort of collective memory machine with his concept of the memex that would make knowledge more accessible, believing that it would help fix these problems. Through this machine, Bush hoped to transform an information explosion into a knowledge explosion.[1]

https://twitter.com/michael_nielsen/status/979193577229004800
https://archive.is/FrF8Q
https://archive.is/19hHT
https://archive.is/G7yLl
https://archive.is/wFbbj
A few notes on Vannevar Bush's amazing essay, "As We May Think", from the 1945(!) @TheAtlantic :

https://twitter.com/andy_matuschak/status/1147928384510390277
https://archive.is/tm6fB
https://archive.is/BIok9
When I first read As We May Think* as a teenager, I was astonished by how much it predicted of the computer age in 1945—but recently I’ve been feeling wistful about some pieces it predicts which never came to pass. [thread]

*

http://ceasarbautista.com/posts/memex_meetup_2.html
wiki  org:mag  essay  big-peeps  history  mostly-modern  classic  ideas  worrydream  exocortex  thinking  network-structure  graphs  internet  structure  notetaking  design  skunkworks  multi  techtariat  twitter  social  discussion  reflection  backup  speedometer  software  org:junk  michael-nielsen 
28 days ago
Zettlr | "Wtf is a Zettelkasten?"
The Zettelkasten Manifesto
In case you're still wondering what a Zettelkasten is and you need a little bit more incentives to get started, please have a look at a video we've made earlier this week, where we outline why the notion of a Zettelkasten has become so intrinsically linked to the name of Niklas Luhmann, why we think that this is bad and how we think we should think of Zettelkästen:
techtariat  org:com  project  software  tools  exocortex  notetaking  workflow  thinking  dbs  structure  network-structure  critique  graphs  stay-organized  germanic  metabuch 
5 weeks ago
Michael Akilian: Worker-in-the-loop Retrospective
Over the last ten years, many companies have created human-in-the-loop services that combine a mix of humans and algorithms. Now that some time has passed, we can tease out some patterns from their collective successes and failures. As someone who started a company in this space, my hope is that this retrospective can help prospective founders, investors, or companies navigating this space save time and fund more impactful projects.

A service is considered human-in-the-loop if it organizes its workflows with the intent to introduce models or heuristics that learn from the work of the humans executing the workflows. In this post, I will make reference to two common forms of human-in-the-loop:

User-in-the-loop (UITL): The end-user is interacting with suggestions from a software heuristic/ML system.
Worker-in-the-loop (WITL): A worker is paid to monitor suggestions from a software heuristic/ML system developed by the same company that pays the worker, but for the ultimate benefit of an end-user.
techtariat  reflection  business  tech  postmortem  automation  startups  hard-tech  ai  machine-learning  human-ml  cost-benefit  analysis  thinking  business-models  things  dimensionality  exploratory  markets  labor  economics  tech-infrastructure  gig-econ 
6 weeks ago
Depreciation Calculator - Insurance Claims Tools & Databases - Claims Pages
depreciation calculator for different product categories/commodities (tbh I would prefer just a table of rates)
tools  calculator  personal-finance  money  increase-decrease  flux-stasis  cost-benefit  economics  time  correlation  manifolds  data  database  objektbuch  quality 
6 weeks ago
The role of exercise capacity in the health and longevity of centenarians
Life-long spontaneous exercise does not prolong lifespan but improves health span in mice: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24472376
Life-long spontaneous exercise did not prolong longevity but prevented several signs of frailty (that is, decrease in strength, endurance and motor coordination).
Survival of the fittest: VO2max, a key predictor of longevity?: https://www.bioscience.org/2018/v23/af/4657/2.htm
7. CONCLUSION

As yet, it is not possible to extend the genetically fixed lifespan with regular exercise training, but the chance to reach the later end of natural lifespan increases with higher physical fitness in midlife, where targeted preventative efforts may be launched. CRF (VO2max) is the strongest independent predictor of future life expectancy in both healthy and cardiorespiratory-diseased individuals. In addition, muscle stimulation is essential in order to prevent muscle wasting, disability, and increased hospitalization in old age, all crucial ways to avoid long-term care, thereby promoting quality of life in aging humans (Figure 2). Thus, extending life is not as important as giving those years more life. This is where physical fitness plays an important role.
study  survey  health  fitness  fitsci  longevity  aging  embodied  death  multi  model-organism  endurance  metabolic  metrics  epidemiology  public-health  regularizer  cost-benefit 
7 weeks ago
The combination of cardiorespiratory fitness and muscle strength, and mortality risk | SpringerLink
Compared with the lowest CRF category, the hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality was 0.76 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64–0.89] and 0.65 (95% CI 0.55–0.78) for the middle and highest CRF categories, respectively, after adjustment for confounders and GS. The highest GS category had an HR of 0.79 (95% CI 0.66–0.95) for all-cause mortality compared with the lowest, after adjustment for confounders and CRF. Similar results were found for cardiovascular and cancer mortality. The HRs for the combination of highest CRF and GS were 0.53 (95% CI 0.39–0.72) for all-cause mortality and 0.31 (95% CI 0.14–0.67) for cardiovascular mortality, compared with the reference category of lowest CRF and GS: no significant association for cancer mortality (HR 0.70; 95% CI 0.48–1.02). CRF and GS are both independent predictors of mortality. Improving both CRF and muscle strength, as opposed to either of the two alone, may be the most effective behavioral strategy to reduce all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk.

Cardiorespiratory fitness, muscular strength, and obesity in adolescence and later chronic disability due to cardiovascular disease: a cohort study of 1 million men: https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/advance-article/doi/10.1093/eurheartj/ehz774/5618700
This population-based cohort study included 1 078 685 male adolescents (16–19 years) from the Swedish military conscription register from 1972 to 1994. Cardiorespiratory fitness (bicycle ergometer test), muscular strength (knee extension strength), and BMI were measured during the conscription examination. Information about disability pension due to CVD was retrieved from the Social Insurance Agency during a mean follow-up of 28.4 years. Cardiorespiratory fitness was strongly and inversely associated with later risk of chronic CVD disability for all investigated causes. The association was particularly strong for ischaemic heart diseases (hazard ratio 0.11, 95% confidence interval 0.05–0.29 for highest vs. lowest fitness-quintiles). Furthermore, overweight/obesity were associated with CVD disability for all investigated causes. Conversely, associations of muscular strength with CVD disability were generally weak.

Association between V̇O2max, handgrip strength, and musculoskeletal pain among construction and health care workers: https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-017-4173-3
study  epidemiology  public-health  health  fitness  fitsci  longevity  aging  embodied  endurance  metabolic  evidence-based  weightlifting  multi  metrics  solid-study  nordic  longitudinal  cardio  cost-benefit 
7 weeks ago
Do Cardio and Strength Training Work Against Each Other? | ISSA
- If the client’s primary goal is to improve power (e.g. improving sprint speed, vertical jumping, Olympic Lifting, etc.), long duration/low intensity aerobic training should be kept to a minimum.

- If the client’s primary goal is to improve strength and/or hypertrophy and he/she wishes to train concurrently with aerobic training, it is best to keep the duration of aerobic training to less than 30 minutes and the frequency of aerobic training to fewer than 3 days per week. Furthermore, a low-impact mode of aerobic training such as cycling or rowing appears to be a more appropriate option than running.

...

- If the client’s primary goal is to improve aerobic performance, concurrent training is advisable as resistance training has not been shown to significantly interfere with aerobic capacity gains.

https://sci-hub.tw/10.1519/JSC.0b013e31823a3e2d
org:health  health  fitness  fitsci  get-fit  evidence-based  study  summary  commentary  tradeoffs  endurance  weightlifting  strategy  running  multi  pdf  piracy  meta-analysis  intervention  metabolic  embodied  cycling  metrics  cost-benefit 
7 weeks ago
Climate Change Worst-Case Scenario Now Looks Unrealistic
As best as we can understand and project the medium- and long-term trajectories of energy use and emissions, the window of possible climate futures is probably narrowing, with both the most optimistic scenarios and the most pessimistic ones seeming, now, less likely.
news  org:mag  org:local  environment  climate-change  trends  current-events  prediction  cost-benefit 
7 weeks ago
You’re Probably Asking the Wrong People For Career Advice | Hunter Walk
Here’s what I believe: when considering a specific career path decision or evaluating an offer with a particular company, I’ve found people tend to concentrate mostly on the opinions and inputs of two groups: their friends in similar jobs and the most “successful” people they know within the industry. Seems like a reasonable strategy, right? Depends.

...

Ok, so who do advice seekers usually *undervalue*? (A) People who know you very deeply regardless of expertise in your specific professional work and (B) individuals who have direct experience with the company, role and people you’re considering.
techtariat  career  advice  communication  strategy  working-stiff  tech  judgement  decision-making  theory-of-mind  expert-experience  track-record  arbitrage  cost-benefit  contrarianism  rhetoric 
10 weeks ago
Introduction · CTF Field Guide
also has some decent looking career advice and links to books/courses if I ever get interested in infosec stuff
guide  security  links  list  recommendations  contest  puzzles  hacker  init  adversarial  systems  traces  accretion  programming  debugging  assembly  c(pp)  metal-to-virtual  career  planning  jobs  books  course  learning  threat-modeling  tech  working-stiff 
11 weeks ago
Redshift sleep experiment - Gwern.net
Redshift does influence my sleep.

One belief - that Redshift helped avoid bright light retarding the sleep cycle and enabling going to bed early - was borne: on Redshift days, I went to bed an average of 19 minutes earlier. (I had noticed this in my earliest Redshift usage in 2008 and noticed during the experiment that I seemed to be staying up pretty late some nights.) Since I value having a sleep schedule more like that of the rest of humanity and not sleeping past noon, this justifies keeping Redshift installed.

But I am also surprised at the lack of effect on the other aspects of sleep; I was sure Redshift would lead to improvements in waking and how I felt in the morning, if nothing else. Yet, while the exact effect tends to be better for the most important variables, the effect estimates are relatively trivial (less than a tenth increase in average morning feel? falling asleep 2 minutes faster?) and several are worse - I’m a bit baffled why deep sleep decreased, but it might be due to the lower total sleep.

So it seems Redshift is excellent for shifting my bedtime forward, but I can’t say it does much else.
ratty  gwern  data  analysis  intervention  effect-size  lifehack  quantified-self  hypothesis-testing  experiment  sleep  rhythm  null-result  software  desktop 
11 weeks ago
antivirus - How to scan a PDF for malware? - Information Security Stack Exchange
Didier Stevens is the main focus when looking at PDF based malware.
- linked tools are more generally useful beyond malware (eg, get statistics on internal composition of PDFs)
- pdfid.py at least is kinda slow (6 minutes for a 100MB file)
q-n-a  stackex  security  tools  software  recommendations  terminal  pdf  yak-shaving 
november 2019
Is the bounty system effective? - Meta Stack Exchange
https://math.meta.stackexchange.com/questions/20155/how-effective-are-bounties
could do some kinda econometric analysis using the data explorer to determine this once and for all: https://pinboard.in/u:nhaliday/b:c0cd449b9e69
maybe some kinda RDD in time, or difference-in-differences?
I don't think answer quality/quantity by time meets the common trend assumption for DD, tho... Questions that eventually receive bounty are prob higher quality in the first place, and higher quality answers accumulate more and better answers regardless. Hmm.
q-n-a  stackex  forum  community  info-foraging  efficiency  cost-benefit  data  analysis  incentives  attention  quality  ubiquity  supply-demand  multi  math  causation  endogenous-exogenous  intervention  branches  control  tactics  sleuthin  hmm  idk  todo  data-science  overflow  dbs  regression  shift  methodology  econometrics 
november 2019
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