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Why a no-deal Brexit is likely - ITV News
11) The probability of the EU giving the UK as long as it realistically needs to recover from its Brexit nervous breakdown and say with clarity what kind of future relationship it wants with the EU is infinitesimally tiny.
UK  EU  Brexit  MayTheresa  noDeal  politics  backstop  CorbynJeremy  customsUnion  negotiations  dctagged  dc:creator=PestonRobert 
5 days ago by petej
Zuboff is a giant, and I am learning a lot from her new book. But I would respectfully dissent from her view, expressed both here and in her book, that "surveillance capitalism" is a radically worse form of capitalism than the one that preceded it.
Zuboff is a giant, and I am learning a lot from her new book. But I would respectfully dissent from her view, expressed both here and in her book, that "surveillance capitalism" is a radically worse form of capitalism than the one that preceded it.
ZuboffShoshana  surveillanceCapitalism  capitalism  politics  economics  technology  dctagged  dc:creator=TarnoffBen 
7 days ago by petej
A no-deal Brexit won’t result in a siege. The EU will be more clinical than that | Tom Kibasi | Opinion | The Guardian
Instead, the EU’s response to a no deal will be strategic: opening up advantage, sector by sector, calmly and patiently dismantling the UK’s leading industries over the course of a decade. They will eat the elephant one bite at a time. The problem with abandoning the rules of the international order is that you no longer enjoy their protection.

A no-deal Brexit would hand the EU enormous power: it would decide how and when to introduce new frictions between the UK and the single market, giving sufficient time for firms like Airbus, Nissan or AstraZeneca to relocate production. As recent decisions have demonstrated, even seemingly fixed capital investment is more mobile than many Brexiters imagine.

The EU would set out a timeline over which it would introduce compliance and rules of origin checks on the UK’s most competitive exporting sectors. It is not hard to imagine checks on automotive parts from 2021, pharmaceuticals from 2022 and aerospace from 2023, alongside constantly shifting sands of equivalence for financial services. This would allow firms an orderly departure from the UK to the single market. It will be a steady drift away from the UK, not an avalanche. Moreover, the absence of any agreement would mean lasting uncertainty that would deter future investment. The UK is particularly exposed in this regard: our serious lack of competitiveness is demonstrated by persistently large trade deficits. This means the UK is heavily reliant on foreign investment – the “kindness of strangers” – which would likely collapse. It is not hard to imagine a future government going cap in hand to the IMF for a bailout.
UK  EU  Brexit  noDeal  delay  shortage  food  prices  imports  livingStandards  competition  industry  trade  regulation  compliance  investment  Nissan  dctagged  dc:creator=KibasiTom 
10 days ago by petej
If Corbyn gets his hands dirty he can avert a hard Brexit | Martin Kettle | Opinion | The Guardian
May's position is neither substantial nor sustainable. It is disjointed and delicate. It bears repeating, after Tuesday’s volte-face, that it was May herself, not the EU, who created the all-UK backstop that she is now seeking to unpick. But the deeper truth, which she must have known when she originally agreed to it in 2017, is that the backstop was an attempt to reconcile three promises that are almost impossible to fit together in one consistent policy.

The first of these is May’s promise to leave the customs union, which she made because she knows that the Thatcherite right of her party, including some of the most fanatical long-term advocates of Brexit, attaches immense importance – though it was barely mentioned in 2016 – to an autonomous trade policy. The second is her promise to Ireland, which in law and by treaty she is duty bound to make, that a new trade regime would not cause the creation of a hard border of any kind. And the third is the promise she made to the DUP after the 2017 election that she would not permit customs and regulatory divergence between Britain and Northern Ireland.
UK  Brexit  politics  CorbynJeremy  LabourParty  customsUnion  singleMarket  backstop  MayTheresa  amendments  BradyGraham  ERG  DUP  dctagged  dc:creator=KettleMartin 
18 days ago by petej
Desperate new Tory Brexit compromise is as pitiful as all the others
The first thing Part A claims to do is extend the transition period from December 2020 to December 2021. And here, in the very first proposal, is the first lie.

The withdrawal agreement with the EU does, it's true, have a transition until December 2020. But it also has an extension which can go on until December 2022. We'll inevitably trigger that. So this proposal is in fact a one year reduction in the transition. And that little lie sets the tone for what's the come.

After that, it proposes a new backstop, built on a plan devised by Shanker Singham, from the right wing Institute of Economic Affairs think tank.

This is the second step in the plan. And it is where we find the second lie. Because this is not a backstop at all. It is just the standard tech solution head-in-the-sound guff of the hard Brexiters, dressed up in a bunch of purposefully incomprehensible legalese.
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  MalthouseKit  backstop  ERG  transition  extension  max-fac  BakerSteve  MorganNicky  politics  dctagged  dc:creator=DuntIan 
19 days ago by petej
Theresa May has thrown the dice up in the air tonight | Coffee House
The point is that she is almost certain to be humiliated and lose the vote on the Brady amendment, because of opposition from the ERG group of Brexiter Tory MPs (those led by Jacob Rees-Mogg) who don’t believe the Brady amendment is specific enough about how the backstop would in practice be shredded, and who don’t trust her to deliver on it unless the amendment is put in her name (which she is reluctant to do).

So those close to May are already conceding to me that they expect her to lose on the Brady amendment, but that would be OK so long as the margin of defeat were not too great – because just maybe she would then be able to persuade the EU that Labour MPs are biddable with offers to preserve workers’ rights and environmental protections, and (again) just maybe the backing of these Corbyn refuseniks would see her reworked deal over the line.

This feels like Olympic-level straw-clutching.
UK  EU  Brexit  politics  ToryParty  backstop  ERG  MayTheresa  BradyGraham  amendments  WeyandSabine  EU27  withdrawalAgreement  CooperYvette  BolesNick  Article50  extension  noDeal  dctagged  dc:creator=PestonRobert 
20 days ago by petej
Free Markets Don't Create Free People: Bitcoin's Tech Success Masks Its Failure - CoinDesk
A future where every transaction, financial or social, public or private, is irrevocably encoded in a public ledger which is utterly transparent to those in power is the very opposite of a democratic, egalitarian crypto utopia. Rather, it is the reinstatement of the divine right of kings, transposed to an elevated elite class where those with the money, whether they be state actors, central bankers, winner-takes-all libertarians or property-absolutist anarcho-capitalists, have total power over those who do not.
cryptography  encryption  communication  security  WorldWarII  PGP  government  ZimmermannPhil  Clipper  privacy  policing  distribution  money  KublaiKhan  authority  centralisation  creditCards  ChaumDavid  Cypherpunks  surveillance  control  technoUtopianism  blockchain  ledger  NakamotoSatoshi  identity  sacrifice  names  nyms  pseudonymity  Bitcoin  energy  sustainability  trust  politics  community  dctagged  dc:creator=BridleJames 
21 days ago by petej
Dreams of a No-Deal Nation | Red Pepper
Just like the original vote to Leave, the strength of the ‘no deal’ story is not its facts but its feelings, not its statistics but its sentiments. What is the story of ‘no deal nation’? No deal nation is strong, steeled for the disruption of ‘no deal’. It is powerful to the point of petulance, defiant of the demands from Brussels. But above all, it is in control, unchained from European rules, whether a customs union or the backstop. It might be materially bad, but it damn well feels good. It offers hope of a future of pride and dignity. Fighting the idea of no deal nation with facts will not work: ‘hope that is seen is not hope: for who hopes for what he sees?’

The more that ‘no deal’ demands sacrifice, the more its popularity will grow: the higher the price, the greater the prize. No deal nation is bolstered by a fuzzy reading of history, self-soothing with stories of its past. It reassures itself: the last time we stood alone, Britain emerged in triumph and the Europeans in tragedy; we prospered before 1972 and will do so again. Do not imagine that the reality of a ‘no deal’ Brexit will change this: confirmation bias will kick in. The Brexit faithful will conclude that they have been punished by devious elites who never wanted to Leave and by European opponents who never had our interests at heart. Rather than undermining Brexit, the ‘no deal’ disaster would merely confirm their suspicion they were right to vote to Leave.
UK  EU  Brexit  noDeal  BBCQT  nationalism  AndersonBenedict  storytelling  deindustrialisation  dignity  emotion  defiance  sacrifice  delusion  Lexit  stateAid  politics  dctagged  dc:creator=KibasiTom 
22 days ago by petej
Brexit: Should Theresa May stick with her plan? - BBC News
But one senior MP involved in the process believes the problem is that by suggesting compromise in the Commons in the wake of defeat last week, then telling ministers Plan B is basically Plan A last night, the PM has "burned up the goodwill".
UK  EU  Brexit  politics  MayTheresa  PlanB  backstop  DUP  compromise  intransigence  withdrawalAgreement  dctagged  dc:creator=KuenssbergLaura 
27 days ago by petej
Who are Theresa May's foes in Parliament? - ITV News
So the normal valves in the British constitution that let pressure out of the system when there is an irreconcilable conflict between the executive and the legislature are not functioning properly.

But the genius of the British constitution is its adaptability.

All the Boleses, Letwins and Greiveses are doing - with the help of the clerks of the Commons - is finding another valve.
UK  EU  Brexit  MayTheresa  amendments  BolesNick  LetwinOliver  MorganNicky  GrievesDominic  FTPA  constitution  Parliament  democracy  dctagged  dc:creator=PestonRobert  noDeal  PlanB 
28 days ago by petej
'The goal is to automate us': welcome to the age of surveillance capitalism | Technology | The Guardian
For example, the idea of “data ownership” is often championed as a solution. But what is the point of owning data that should not exist in the first place? All that does is further institutionalise and legitimate data capture. It’s like negotiating how many hours a day a seven-year-old should be allowed to work, rather than contesting the fundamental legitimacy of child labour. Data ownership also fails to reckon with the realities of behavioural surplus. Surveillance capitalists extract predictive value from the exclamation points in your post, not merely the content of what you write, or from how you walk and not merely where you walk. Users might get “ownership” of the data that they give to surveillance capitalists in the first place, but they will not get ownership of the surplus or the predictions gleaned from it – not without new legal concepts built on an understanding of these operations.
technology  businessModels  surveillance  surveillanceCapitalism  tracking  predictions  manipulation  personalisation  power  democracy  Facebook  Google  advertising  behaviour  control  dataProtection  ownership  GDPR  dctagged  dc:creator=ZuboffShoshana 
28 days ago by petej
Brexit: Why Labour should stick to its conference strategy
Brexit is now a class struggle — between a hard right nationalist project and, on the other side, an alliance of liberal centrists, with working class socialists, Greens and the left-nationalists in Scotland and Wales. The Leave 2.0 campaign will be, in Hannah Arendt’s famous phrase, an “alliance of the elite and the mob”. The Remain campaign should be an alliance of the working class and progressive middle class and any business leaders with the guts to join it — ie excaclty the kind of formation that the left used in the mid-1930s to fight the far right.
UK  EU  Brexit  politics  LabourParty  softBrexit  referendum  PeoplesVote  StarmerKeir  Remain  reform  class  nationalism  middleClass  workingClass  dctagged  dc:creator=MasonPaul 
28 days ago by petej
Rosa Luxemberg 100 years on… – Mosquito Ridge – Medium
Capitalism destroys itself, colonises its external environment and destroys the planet. To survive it must constantly impose market logic on the non-capitalist, human-centred parts of the economy

This inner tendency leads towards barbaric outcomes unless we stop it — and we are surrounded by those outcomes: genocide, war, torture, surveillance, control, misogyny, racism…

Those who will overthrow capitalism are the people who cannot live with the barbarism. They do not need a deus ex machina, a manipulative Leninist party, to realise what’s wrong: they can work it out for themselves. The task of the organisation is to focus their energy and free it from the strictures and controls capitalism teaches them to impose upon themselves.
LuxemburgRosa  capitalism  exploitation  socialFactory  autonomism  socialism  barbarism  revolution  politics  dctagged  dc:creator=MasonPaul 
29 days ago by petej
It was never about Europe. Brexit is Britain’s reckoning with itself | Fintan O’Toole | Opinion | The Guardian
Paradoxically, this drama of departure has really served only to displace a crisis of belonging. Brexit plays out a conflict between Them and Us, but it is surely obvious after this week that the problem is not with Them on the continent. It’s with the British Us, the unravelling of an imagined community. The visible collapse of the Westminster polity this week may be a result of Brexit, but Brexit itself is the result of the invisible subsidence of the political order over recent decades.
UK  EU  Brexit  identity  nationalism  nationalIdentity  England  GoodFridayAgreement  indyref  Scotland  welfareState  democracy  politics  dctagged  dc:creator=O'TooleFintan 
4 weeks ago by petej
Only a rupture with the EU will alter the failed status quo | Larry Elliott | Opinion | The Guardian
Brexit, the gilets jaunes protesters in France, the terrible pain inflicted on Greece and the support for the League/Five Star government in Italy all tell their own story. Europe is alive with political discontent that reflects the demand for deep and urgent reform, but the chances of getting it are less likely if the status quo prevails.

Why? Because the forces of conservatism are strong. Change comes about only when the pressure for it becomes too great to resist. The financial crisis provided one such opportunity to reform an economic system that for many people clearly wasn’t working; Brexit was a second. The left’s case for Brexit has always been based on the following notions: the current economic model is failing; socialism is needed to fix it; and the free-market ideology hardwired into the EU via the European Central Bank, judgments of the European court of justice and treaty changes will make that process all but impossible without a break with the status quo.

It is theoretically possible that in the event of a “Brexit in name only” or no Brexit at all, policymakers will push ahead with what’s needed in order to make a reality of the slogan “a reformed Britain in a reformed Europe”. Possible but not all that plausible, given that it would require breaking up the euro, more autonomy for individual countries to intervene in the running of their economies, and a simultaneous philosophical U-turn in the big member states.

Much more likely is that the pressure for change will dissipate and the real grievances of those who voted for Brexit will be quietly forgotten. The softer the Brexit, the more convinced the EU will be that it has been doing the right thing all along. Britain will not go up in flames, but there will still be consequences. Leave voters will feel they have been victims of an establishment stitch-up. The anger will not go away and will eventually resurface.

The risk is that the losers will be the biggest supporters of the EU – the liberal left. And the biggest winners will be the extreme right.
UK  EU  Brexit  TheLeft  Lexit  Leave  finance  crisis  economy  productivity  ECB  Euro  reform  farRight  politics  dctagged  dc:creator=ElliottLarry 
4 weeks ago by petej
The fear that lies behind aggressive masculinity | George Monbiot | Opinion | The Guardian
The age-old mistake, which has stunted countless lives, is the assumption that because physical hardship in childhood makes you physically tough, emotional hardship must make you emotionally tough. It does the opposite. It implants a vulnerability that can require a lifetime of love and therapy to repair and that, untreated, leads to an escalating series of destructive behaviours. Emotionally damaged men all too often rip apart their own lives, and those of their partners and children. I see both physical fitness and emotional strength as virtues, but they are acquired by entirely different means.
masculinity  identity  aggression  fear  decline  emotion  mentalHealth  dctagged  dc:creator=MonbiotGeorge 
4 weeks ago by petej
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