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Here Are the Odds That One of SpaceX’s Internet Satellites Will Hit Someone - IEEE Spectrum Dec 2018
"The chance that SpaceX’s planned Starlink satellite constellation will cause an injury or death is 45 percent every six years, according to an IEEE Spectrum analysis of figures submitted by the company to the U.S. Federal Communications Commission."

"When that fuel runs low, after around six years, the satellites will use the remainder to nudge themselves into the denser atmosphere below. Each satellite, just a little smaller in size than a Tesla Model 3, will then swiftly burn up. Except that some of it won’t. "

"When SpaceX plugged the numbers into NASA’s Debris Assessment Software, the package calculated that there was, at most, a 1 in 18,200 chance that an individual satellite in its LEO orbital shells would hurt or kill someone. VLEO satellites were generally slightly riskier, with up to a 1 in 17,400 chance. All figures are handily less than the 1 in 10,000 figure that NASA has adopted as a standard, and that U.S. and European space agencies require for space missions."
IEEE-Spectrum  SpaceX  orbital-debris  risk-assessment  satellite  constellations 
december 2018 by pierredv
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