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The ROI Challenge of IoT Smallsats - NSR, Oct 2018
"In the recently released M2M and IoT via Satellite, 9th Edition report, NSR projected over 3.7 million smallsat IoT in-service units by 2027; this will generate approx. $133 million in retail revenues during the same year, but it only represents an overall share of only 5% of total satellite M2M/IoT revenues. ARPUs will be low on smallsat IoT networks"

"To turn a profit on these small satellite constellations purely from IoT, millions of IoT devices will be required. On each constellation. With only several million connected devices to come online on smallsats over the coming decade, competition will be extremely fierce between the 15+ constellations for this purpose, with most either merging or never actually launching."

"Further, satellite renewals must be considered, as the average life span for these satellites is up to 3 years. Any launch failure would significantly impact latency and IoT performance. Nonetheless, NSR expects a few smallsat IoT constellations to reach positive ROIs within the next 10 years, assuming additional financing is available to maintain positive cash flow over the first few years of launch."

"Low data rates (a few bytes) per packet transferred are fine for now; however, this fails to consider the growth of data requirements coming from big data analysis. This results in additional levels of data that will be transmitted, despite more analysis being done at the ‘edge’ and not transmitted via satellite. This is where ‘bigsat’ constellations such as Iridium NEXT and Globalstar’s second generation network come into play."

Bottom line: "the ROI on comparatively low-cost CAPEX of smallsats is depressed by even lower ARPUs and end-user demand."
NSR  market-research  business  satellite  smallsats  IoT  M2M  investing  Kepler  Iridium  Globalstar 
october 2018 by pierredv
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