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pierredv : nsr   37

Sorry LEOs, but FPAs Have No Incentive to Go Low-Cost - NSR Dec 2018
"According to NSR’s Commercial Satellite Ground Segment, 3rd Edition report, antennas will generate $44.9 billion cumulative revenues in the next 10 years. Requirements are wide and varied, from low-cost, fixed parabolic dishes for DTH (can be as cheap as $10 USD), to highly sophisticated antennas for mobility or Earth Stations that can cost several $100k USD. Consequently, antenna vendors adapt their products to the most lucrative markets. LEO constellations have a particular set of requirements that favor FPAs, especially in the low-end markets, but are FPA incentives aligned with LEO Constellations?"

"Today, SAC in Consumer Broadband is around $700-1,000 USD where the modem might be in the $300 range, antenna itself around $50, installation contributing $100 and the rest being marketing, credit validation and others. Consequently, an FPA priced in the $200-300 range could compete with traditional parabolics considering lower installation and marketing costs (product placement). Even considering these factors, prices for FPAs are still far from this benchmark, and only the architectures that have no other option (LEOs, Aero) will choose FPAs in the short to medium term."

"It will be impossible to see FPAs beating low-end parabolics in a direct cost comparison but, when including other elements of SAC, the equation is not so unfavorable. With continuous technology development, greater traction from LEOs and stagnation in verticals like Aero, we could see consumer-grade FPAs by the mid-2020s, at the earliest."
NSR  antennas  LEO  business  satellite  broadband  aviation 
14 days ago by pierredv
NSR’s Satcom Financial Index 2018- Dissecting the Trends - NSR Dec 2018
"Recent (Q2 or Q3) financial results have been a mixed bag for the industry. Video revenues have consistently declined on a YoY basis for most operators including Intelsat, Eutelsat, SES and EchoStar Satellite Services, while most operators have posted gains in network connectivity – most prominently in Government and mobile connectivity verticals, including ViaSat. To say that the latter two verticals remain the growth story in the near term is a massive understatement – while one must also take into consideration significant progress in consumer broadband by Hughes and in mobile backhaul by SES (MEO)."

"Though, barring equipment sales by the top two integrated operators, overall growth looks to be lagging in 2018. Many satcom operators seem to be missing targets, especially on video, with capacity prices continuously falling even in developed markets of the world. There is likewise high regional competition, as well as the terrestrial pressure, and given that video still forms the bulk of the GEO industry revenues today, overall growth is stagnating in the near term."
NSR  satellite  market-research  business 
15 days ago by pierredv
A Price War Coming for Satcom IoT? - NSR Nov 2018
"on the horizon are many competing IoT network deployments that promise to significantly lower the cost of hardware and airtime costs associated with IoT and to open new markets. Given these new cut-price alternatives, where does that leave existing M2M operators, which have a higher cost base and higher service price?"

"New competition in this space includes the rise of small satellite constellations for IoT (despite some questionable business cases), Low Power Wide Area (LPWA) networks, and 5G connectivity, which is just around the corner. These new smallsat operators and LPWA networks intend to offer ARPUs of $1 per month, or even just a few euros per year. Low prices are also available on the terrestrial side, with Unabiz also announcing offerings as low as $1 per year. Sigfox even demonstrated a 20 cent terminal, which could bring in a new large market of disposable devices and tracking packages."

"By comparison, Iridium’s commercial IoT service ARPU was an order of magnitude higher at $13 per month in 2017, compared to $18 in 2012, indicating a decline in ARPU. "

"Will mass price cuts be unveiled once smallsat IoT constellations and LPWA networks are fully rolled out? The short answer: No"

"Like-for-like ARPUs will remain significantly higher than smallsats and terrestrial competitors, but taking into account MoUs and dual mode connectivity, overall satcom ARPUs will be lower."
NSR  satellite  IoT  Sigfox  Iridium  M2M  Globalstar  Orbcomm 
28 days ago by pierredv
EO Smallsat Market: Where to Go from Here? - NSR Nov 2018
"Smallsat operators, now more than 40, all expect to capture a sizeable piece of the EO downstream market. The questions are: How big is this pie and who is it for?"

"NSR’s Satellite-Based Earth Observation, 10th Edition report forecasts the EO smallsat downstream market will experience double-digit CAGRs, and cumulatively account for $9.7B in revenue over the next decade. Growth will come from all verticals, but a large segment of this growth is to arrive in the form of Big Data analytics for Defense & Intelligence and Managed Living Resources (Agriculture, Forestry, etc.)."

"Another factor driving change and growth in the industry is the devaluation of imagery and the growing focus on Big Data analytics. Currently, Big Data analytics players favor MR imagery due to its easier access and lower costs. However, upcoming supply and growing archives are serving to depreciate the cost of imagery, lowering the barrier to entry for utilization of HR imagery."
NSR  smallsats  EO  remote-sensing  market-research 
29 days ago by pierredv
Will Software-Defined Satellites Take Off? - NSR Nov 2018
"... new architectures, multiple forms of heightened risk taking, and adoption of low or no heritage technologies. SES is pushing this process even further with proposals for a standard-build, software-defined satellite that could be purchased off the shelf for use in any orbital slot by any operator. Yet, with buy-in needed from both manufacturers and competing operators, will the idea take off?"

"The ability to change frequency bands, coverage areas, power allocation, and architecture (widebeam vs HTS, for example) on-demand, at any point in satellite lifetime, enables an operator to capture diverse markets. It can address new applications as they emerge, compensating if the initial target market falters, or more simply respond to a rebalancing of demand. Standard-build satellites also add flexibility to an operator’s fleet, making satellites interchangeable in the case of anomaly or shifting priorities."

"as is the case with any generalist/specialist tradeoff, a standard-build satellite will be able to address a broader overall array of demand but might not address individual markets as competitively as a tailored satellite."

"not only are standard-build/software-defined satellites on the table, but very high throughput satellites (e.g. ViaSat-3), smallsats in GEO (e.g. Astranis), condosats (e.g. GeoShare), blended GEO/MEO/LEO constellations, and in-orbit servicing and assembly, amid other budding ideas, are feasible pathways as well"

"While this cost and risk must be resolved, in principal standard-build satellites dovetail with what manufacturers have been considering for years: standardization as a way to cut costs and reduce production timelines."
SDR  NSR  satellites  SES  standards 
4 weeks ago by pierredv
Turning the Satellite Business Model Upside-Down - NSR Gagan Agrawal, Nov 2017
The traditional satcom industry can be argued to be entering its third transition phase, after the FSS video boom until 2010 and the HTS influenced pricing decline more recently. With languishing growth in 2018, alongside declining EBITDA margins and backlog, the operator industry remains uncertain on video, while debating on the merits of going fully downstream in the long term. Several factors such as high regional competition, video demand absorption through higher compression, supply-demand mismatch impact on pricing, pressure from OTT, and commoditization of capacity have driven the market to a stagnation point. However, no trend is bigger than the continuous manufacturing innovation to pack more Mbps per unit of million dollars cost. By pushing CAPEX per Gbps to ever more efficient levels, operators are able to undercut competitors on lease pricing, forcing many to sell at or below break-even profit margins, creating a zero-sum effect overall.
NSR  satellite  business  finance  * 
5 weeks ago by pierredv
NSR Report: Earth Observation Markets to Generate $54 Billion in Revenue by 2027 - NSR, Oct 2018
"NSR’s Satellite-Based Earth Observation (EO), 10th Edition report, released today, projects Earth Observation satellite data and services will represent a $54 billion cumulative opportunity over the next ten years, growing to $6.9 billion annually in 2027"

"The market’s evolution toward more on-demand data and services will be driven by satellite constellations, high-volume imagery platforms, and subscriptions"

"As the EO industry continues to shift from imagery to insights, ... a greater opportunity for downstream Information Products and Big Data analytics, than for the sale of data."

"the market is expected to face aggressive consolidation"
NSR  EO  remote-sensing  EarthObservation  satellite  business  market-research  data-analytics  analytics 
8 weeks ago by pierredv
C-band Spectrum Reallocation: Too Lucrative to Ignore? - NSR Oct 2018
"While various countries have already implemented several measures to either purchase or forcefully take the band from satellite operators and auction off to telecom operators, the case in U.S. has been more uncertain until last year."

"The majority rights holders to 3.7-4.2 GHz of spectrum in the U.S. are Intelsat and SES, two major, global satellite operators in terms of in-orbit satellites and transponders leased. They account for almost ~90% of the U.S. C-band spectrum and service various cable customers across the U.S. for video distribution. However, with spectrum rights expected to expire in mid 2020s and YoY performance on the C-band U.S. business declining fast"

"with the new compression HEVC using DVB-S2X, almost all video distribution channels could fit in under 30% of Ku-band satellite capacity."
NSR  satellite  cellular  C-band  Intelsat  SES 
8 weeks ago by pierredv
Does the satellite industry have antenna deficit disorder? - Oct 2018
"To connect the masses, megaconstellations will need mega antennas mega cheap. Antenna makers need mega orders to make that happen."

David Hartshorn: “There are business plans, big ones, hanging out there that depend if not entirely then at least to a very large extent on the availability of high-performance, low-cost, high-volume, low-profile antennas,”

"Northern Sky Research expects companies to ship 1.8 million flat panel antennas between now and 2027 with revenues topping $8 billion for the decade."

"For years, antenna manufacturers have produced high-performance alternatives to gimbaled parabolic antennas pointed at geostationary communications satellites. Price tags range from a few thousand dollars to $250,000 depending on the application."

"To work with low Earth orbit constellations, the antennas need to track two or more satellites simultaneously — something parabolic dishes can’t do. They also need to be small and durable, prevent signal interference, instantly find satellites and secure links, degrade gracefully and have great signal efficiency.

“It turns out that according to the laws of physics, you cannot do all those things at the same time,” said Ralph Brooker, president of SatProf"

John Finney, Isotropic: “What OneWeb wants in terms of target price is in the very low hundreds of dollars. We see a way to get there.”
satellite  constellations  antennas  NGSO  SpaceNews  business  NSR 
8 weeks ago by pierredv
Satellite Big Data 3L’s: Location, Location, Location — NSR's Big Data Analytics , Satnews Daily Sep 2018
Article by Shivaprakash Muruganandham, NSR Analys

"NSR’s Big Data Analytics via Satellite, 2nd Edition report identifies seven vertical markets as growth areas, and more than 70 percent of the share is held by the Transportation, Government and Military (Gov/Mil) and Energy markets throughout the forecast period."


"The mobile nature of the transportation segment ensures that it remains important throughout the next decade, with nearly 1 out of every three dollars spent on SBD coming from land, maritime and aeronautical transport segments."

Government & Military

"NSR finds growth in this sector to be largely driven by the rise of geospatial intelligence (GEOINT), with EO applications growing at nearly twice the rate of M2M/IoT SATCOM applications"


"M2M/IoT SATCOM will continue to play a major role in Energy, due to the remote nature of asset locations and the absence of terrestrial solutions."

"NSR’s considers that EO satellite-based analytics services are expected to grow in importance for this vertical, despite competition from unmanned aerial system (UAS) alternatives. This growth will be fueled by the rise of new sensing capabilities such as methane tracking and emissions monitoring solutions for O&G companies looking to mitigate financial risks."
NSR  market-research  satellite  data-analytics  Satnews  EO  remote-sensing  UAS 
10 weeks ago by pierredv
The ROI Challenge of IoT Smallsats - NSR, Oct 2018
"In the recently released M2M and IoT via Satellite, 9th Edition report, NSR projected over 3.7 million smallsat IoT in-service units by 2027; this will generate approx. $133 million in retail revenues during the same year, but it only represents an overall share of only 5% of total satellite M2M/IoT revenues. ARPUs will be low on smallsat IoT networks"

"To turn a profit on these small satellite constellations purely from IoT, millions of IoT devices will be required. On each constellation. With only several million connected devices to come online on smallsats over the coming decade, competition will be extremely fierce between the 15+ constellations for this purpose, with most either merging or never actually launching."

"Further, satellite renewals must be considered, as the average life span for these satellites is up to 3 years. Any launch failure would significantly impact latency and IoT performance. Nonetheless, NSR expects a few smallsat IoT constellations to reach positive ROIs within the next 10 years, assuming additional financing is available to maintain positive cash flow over the first few years of launch."

"Low data rates (a few bytes) per packet transferred are fine for now; however, this fails to consider the growth of data requirements coming from big data analysis. This results in additional levels of data that will be transmitted, despite more analysis being done at the ‘edge’ and not transmitted via satellite. This is where ‘bigsat’ constellations such as Iridium NEXT and Globalstar’s second generation network come into play."

Bottom line: "the ROI on comparatively low-cost CAPEX of smallsats is depressed by even lower ARPUs and end-user demand."
NSR  market-research  business  satellite  smallsats  IoT  M2M  investing  Kepler  Iridium  Globalstar 
10 weeks ago by pierredv
Insight-as-a-Service for Satellite Networks - NSR Sep 2018
"The terrestrial telecom industry is fast shifting towards 5G networks, with Software Defined Networks (SDN) and Network Functions Virtualization (NFV) forming key parts of major strategic efforts. This is seen in multiple market movements where organizations such as Verizon, AT&T and Ericsson have begun to shift towards adopting SDN/NFV approaches to manage increasingly complex networks. But what does this mean for satellite players, and how can they remain competitive?

With satellite operators beginning to unlock value behind pixels and bits, the industry is moving downstream towards a data-driven application business. Earth Observation (EO) and Machine-to-Machine (M2M) / Internet-of-Things (IoT) satcom stand at an inflection point. While most of the opportunity will remain in the application layer, a parallel story is emerging in the network layer as well."

"NSR’s Big Data Analytics via Satellite, 2nd Edition report establishes the revenue potential for satellite big data lies largely in the Transportation, Gov/Mil and Energy markets."

"A major driving force of this growth is the increasing complexity of networks."

"... in late 2017, SES used dynamic bandwidth allocation based on SDN principles on its O3b fleet."
NSR  satellite  5G  SDN  NFV  EO  remote-sensing  M2M  IoT  market-research  SES  O3b 
11 weeks ago by pierredv
M2M and IoT via Satellite, 9th Edition - NSR - Sep 2018
From press release in email 9/23, dd 9/25, "NSR Report: Smallsats to Accelerate M2M/IoT Satcom Market"

"NSR’s M2M and IoT via Satellite, 9th Edition report forecasts smallsat M2M/IoT constellations are set to propel market growth via low latency, low cost, albeit low ARPU, service. NSR’s first time forecast for this emerging smallsat market shows tremendous potential with 3.7 million M2M/IoT in-service units projected by 2027, representing 37% of overall satcom terminals."

"constellations such as Astrocast, Hiber, Kepler Communications and many more will target satcom M2M/IoT applications with ARPUs set to $1 per month or even lower"

"viability of new smallsat constellations in this market is more likely than their large LEO telecom counterparts due to much lower system CAPEX"
NSR  satellite  market-research  IoT  M2M  business 
12 weeks ago by pierredv
Can OneWeb Cross the Valley of Death? - NSR Sep 2018
Blog doesn't answer the question the headline poses - but hints No.

"OneWeb has accomplished a significant feat by raising the most funding – $1.7 billion – offering it a tremendous benefit over other similar LEO constellations. However, despite this notable amount, the question remains – is it enough to support and sustain this mega constellation, or is it just buzz and hype?"

"NSR considers OneWeb is currently placed between the technology transfer and product launch phases and will soon enter the said valley [of death]."

"NSR estimated a total CAPEX of over $5 Billion for OneWeb- which is $2 billion over the originally expected total CAPEX of around $3 billion. Considering this CAPEX value, a total available funding amount of $1.7 billion to date and a valuation of capacity as well as service revenue streams from various applications, NSR estimates a negative ROI over the next 10 years, which is attenuated further with the recently announced (and later retracted) confusing news of a $6 billion associated CAPEX."

"The dismissal of landing right requests (such is the case in Russia) also poses a significant threat to the success of OneWeb, as does the heavy recurring cost of fleet replenishment every 7-10 years."

"Market readiness, however, is a probable barrier for OneWeb."
NSR  OneWeb  business  satellite  NGSO  LEO 
12 weeks ago by pierredv
NSR Report: Non-GEO Satellites to Dominate Supply, Adding over 25 Tbps in Next Decade - NSR
"NSR’s Global Satellite Capacity Supply & Demand, 15th Edition report finds Non-GEO Satellite (NGSO) annual capacity revenues will skyrocket to $4 billion by 2027. These networks offer a new set of attributes for customers such as low latency, full mesh connectivity, or high-bandwidth per terminal, and will be key to unlocking new greenfield markets. However, CAPEX exposure is massive, and new revenue drivers might not be enough to pay back initial investments. Consequently, there is a risk of price disruption for the entire industry if these new players dump capacity to poach customers from legacy verticals."
NSR  market-research  satellite  business  NGSO 
september 2018 by pierredv
LEO-HTS Constellations Present Great Promise but Challenging Business Cases - NSR May 2018
"NSR’s industry-first Satellite Constellations: A Critical Analysis report, released today, forecasts a mixed outcome for large HTS constellations. NSR predicts two, out of the five Non-GEO HTS constellations analyzed, do not have a viable business case and will not be sustainable, if launched. The remaining three will generate 12% of overall satcom market revenues over the next decade. Costly systems and replenishment cycles, matched against funding challenges, demand questions, and extraordinary technical and regulatory complexity, will separate contenders from pretenders in the high stakes constellations market."

“The reduced launch and manufacturing costs are indeed enabling trends; however, there are still many challenges, like those associated with ground infrastructure costs and acquisition of landing rights, that must be overcome to build a feasible business model. The benefits from economies of scale, which mega-constellations rely upon, are generally not enough to counter these other challenges,”
NSR  market-research  business  satellite  HTS  NGSO  satellite-constellations 
september 2018 by pierredv
Milking the “Cow” or Shooting for the “Stars” - Northern Sky Research Aug 2018
"While HTS attracts the hype and promises rapid revenue growth, the truth is that today, FSS, and most specifically video, continues to be the bread and butter of satellite operators. According to NSR’s Global Satellite Capacity Supply and Demand, 15th Edition report, cumulative satellite capacity revenues over the next 10 years will surpass $189 billion, with widebeam FSS still driving 53% of these revenues. How should satellite operators balance growth and revenues?"

"Several HTS payloads have been slow in attracting customers as the operators underestimated the effort to develop sales channels. Similarly, network management for a widebeam satellite is much simpler than for an HTS satellite."
NSR  satellite  HTS  GEO  FSS  business  market-research 
august 2018 by pierredv
Cruising for Higher Throughputs - Northern Sky Research Aug 2018
"From 300 Mbps to MSC cruises announced by Marlink in June 2017 to the most recent 3.2 Gbps of throughput delivered to a Carnival Cruise Line Ship in May of 2018, there are few satellite sectors that are seeing such record levels of growth to a customer’s single location . With over 570 Gbps of throughput growth expected between 2017 – 2027 according to NSR’s Maritime SATCOM Report, what applications are driving this growth? "
NSR  satellite  broadband  maritime  GSO  NGSO 
august 2018 by pierredv
Satellite Constellations: Too Much of a Good Thing? - Northern Sky Research, Aug 2018
"LEO constellations, theoretically, benefit from economies of scale [but] it is crucial to recognize the point where the variable costs start to outweigh the fixed cost benefits, and the cost save turns into cost disadvantages, also known as diseconomies of scale."

"To support the production of satellite constellations ... will most definitely result in bottlenecks within the industry with further increase in internal diseconomies of scale for operators as well as for the suppliers."

"At a certain point, the additional satellites for the larger constellation continue to increase the costs but are unable to produce revenues at the same rate, resulting in a lower ROI for the 4,425-satellite [SpaceX] constellation."
NSR  space  satellite  constellations  economics  business  SpaceX 
august 2018 by pierredv
Satellite EOL: Not One Size Fits All - Northern Sky Research Jul 2018
"A satellite launched in the 1990s was designed to operate for an average 12 years, a life expectancy that by the 2000s increased to 15 years. Many continue to operate for 18 years or more, but 15 remains the prevailing design life. Yet with operators seeking new strategies in today’s challenging market, and technology advancing at an ever-faster pace, could the 15-year GEO satellite life be a standard of the past?"

"NSR’s Satellite Manufacturing and Launch Services, 8th Edition, found that commercial GEO communications satellites in-orbit today have an average age of 8.9 years. Only 17.2% of current satellites are in the process of being replenished, indicating that a slate of new orders – or decisions to not replace aging satellites – are coming in the next few years."

"Many elements contribute to a satellite reaching EOL or experiencing a reduction in capabilities, but exhaustion of fuel most commonly drives the 15-year design life. As operators increasingly turn to electric propulsion, this driver will ease, enabling satellites to remain in station-kept orbit longer than with chemical designs. A more near-term solution to lengthen satellite lifetimes is to use in-orbit servicing vehicles, either for refueling or as a tug to provide station keeping."

"Interest in short, 7-8-year lifetimes has also emerged."
NSR  market-research  satellite  business  space  GEO 
july 2018 by pierredv
EO Investment Picture: Worth More Than a Thousand Words - Northern Sky Research Jul 2018
"The Earth Observation (EO) market has been in constant evolution and recently, it has transitioned from costly, large EO satellites to smaller, more nimble ones flying as part of constellations. Using many small satellites is enabling real-time earth monitoring and observation, and with this, increasingly large amounts of data are being produced every day. Additionally, medium resolution imaging (1 m. to 5 m.) is abundant, and its price relatively low and declining."

"This combination of price decrease and data profusion has created a business opportunity favoring the entrance of new players and the application of digital technologies into new business models,"

"Small satellite constellations with new sensor technologies have enabled data and imaging of the Earth in large amounts, thereby allowing for a new set of companies to arise at the intersection of low-priced imagery and digital technologies: data analytics.

And it is not by coincidence that NSR’s research found almost 90% of new space companies dedicated to EO are for data analytics; inexpensive imagery and digital technologies can deliver high value intelligence applications at a much cheaper cost."

"45% of new EO companies were founded in North America and captured 84% of total investments."

"Diving deeper into 2017, and more particularly into the dynamic North American market, NSR’s analysis shows most investor attention was focused on two companies: Orbital Insights and Descartes Labs. "
NSR  satellite  space  EarthObservation  remote-sensing  business  market-research  data-analytics  investing  EO  OrbitalInsights  DescartesLabs 
july 2018 by pierredv
Airlines to Take IFC Controls - Northern Sky Research Jul 2018
"NSR forecasts in its Aeronautical Satcom Markets, 6th Edition that the total satellite connectivity opportunity for IFC will reach $4.7 B in retail revenues annually by 2027 and most of it, roughly $3.8 B, will be generated from commercial passenger markets"

"To ‘share the load’ of IFC, airlines are taking more control over the interface where passengers (and sometimes 3rd party third-party payers in the hybrid model) are increasingly tapped to generate revenues. As service providers look to retreat from the expenses of paying for IFC in order to become more profitable, it is likely that the burden of costs will shift to airlines. "
NSR  satellite  market-research  broadband  IFC  aviation 
july 2018 by pierredv
Enabling a GEO-NGEO Hybrid System - Northern Sky Research, Jul 2018
"The Military segment has, historically, primarily been served by GEO satellites for execution of critical applications, including intelligence gathering, navigation and communication. GEO systems, by nature, offer the advantage of significant coverage via a single satellite, especially with the advent of GEO-HTS satellites. On the other hand, latency and significant CAPEX have always been limitations of the GEO architecture. These drawbacks have given rise to the emerging trend of LEO and MEO constellations (NGEO) that can offer low latency and lower cost per satellite. However, constellations have their own set of constraints, with system complexity, ground infrastructure costs and frequency spectrum coordination, to name a few. Considering both, the shortcomings as well as the strengths of each system, could this perhaps be the start of an integration between GEO and LEO/MEO operators with a hybrid GEO-NGEO system on the rise? "

"Keeping the overall system costs low, however, is where it gets complex for NGEO framework. Although the manufacturing and launch costs per satellite are relatively lower, the need for a considerable number of satellites, the associated replenishment costs and the ground infrastructure expenses – all intensify the overall system cost."

"NSR estimates just over 1% of total revenues for gov/military will come from Non-GEO constellations by 2027."

"[TCO] is a key driver for NGEO constellations, military and otherwise, and is as well one of the biggest challenges for the operators presently. Simply put, either the expenses, mostly CAPEX, need to drop or the revenues need to grow for the business case to sustain. This is where a GEO-NGEO Hybrid architecture could prove pragmatic."

"Intelsat’s and OneWeb’s unsuccessful attempt towards a strategic alliance was one example of this hybrid system. GEO operators JSAT and Hispasat have similarly announced strategic investment in LEO constellations including LeoSat."

"Another level of integration, perhaps more technically innovative, and therefore challenging, is a system where GEO satellites can handle the TT&C operations for LEO constellations and act as the base station control system of the network."
NSR  GEO  NGSO  Intelsat  OneWeb  LeoSat  SES  O3b  satellite  constellations  military  DARPA  business  market-research 
july 2018 by pierredv
IFC Going the Wrong Way? - Northern Sky Research
"... since the seminal contract to Panasonic to install connectivity on Lufthansa’s wide-body airframes in 2010, more than 3,000 commercial aircraft on 40 different airlines have installed Ku-band satellite connectivity. And these have generated roughly $1.7 B in retail revenues since the first year it was online (2012)."
NSR  aviation  IFC  broadband  satellite  business 
june 2018 by pierredv
June 2018 - Will LEO Kickstart the Asian Broadband Market? | Via Satellite Jun 2018
"In terms of demand, Asia leads the way in satellite broadband. It's purely a numbers game and Asia certainly has the numbers — as long as they refer to population and households, that is. If referring to U.S. dollar figures, then it's a different story, one that has the United States as the protagonist. According to a Northern Sky Research (NSR) market forecast, North America is driving revenues in terms of subscribers. Despite Asia having a much larger population, it really boils down to economics and, comparatively, disposable income levels in Asia are not as high as that of the United States. "

"When considering the price point, the magic number that unlocks the barrier holding back satellite changes country to country. Satellite needs to match fiber, and both need to be at a much lower price.

"In the United States, it's $60, which is still high, however, people are willing to pay that premium. Comparatively, in the Philippines, for example, a fiber connection costs around $50 a month. But looking at the mass markets, the price will have to go down to around $10 to $15 – and this will still be challenging," says Del Rosario. "

“If these [LEO] constellations are manufactured efficiently and launched on time, if the ground terminals are priced at $150-300 per unit, if they get market access to the countries they’re targeting, and if they drastically reduce the price to the consumer, say to $10-15, then the impact will be huge. But there are a lot of ‘ifs’ riding on this. Getting all this right, then yes, they will hit Asia’s mainstream market, and that is huge,” explains Del Rosario.
ViaSatellite  NSR  LEO  business  economics 
june 2018 by pierredv
In-Orbit Servicing Markets (IoSM) - Northern Sky Research June 2018
With the first commercial servicing spacecraft slated to launch in 2018, NSR’s industry-first In-Orbit Servicing Markets (IoSM) study dives into the market dynamics and challenges shaping this nascent industry and its future potential. IoSM evaluates the value proposition of core IoS applications for different customer types, providing a global market revenue and addressable market demand forecast for each application in the 2017-2027 period. Two case studies on commercial GEO satellite life extension provide insight into the operator perspective in service-or-replace trade-offs, assessing when and why IoS is a compelling option.
NSR  market-research  space  satellite  in-orbit-servicing 
june 2018 by pierredv
Non-GEO Constellations: Surviving the Disruption - Northern Sky Research - May 2018
"The main industry segments most affected by Non-GEO constellations are HTS Communications, IoT and Earth Observation (EO). ... The main industry segments most affected by Non-GEO constellations are HTS Communications, IoT and Earth Observation (EO). Each of these segments presents its own set of challenges and therefore different barriers to success. NSR’s Satellite Constellations: A Critical Assessment report investigates for the first time what guarantees success for LEO constellations within these three segments and the associated disruption on the industry."

"higher revenue requires a higher market share, which further requires low latency and higher coverage. That is the main value proposition of mega-constellations. However, the bigger the constellation, the higher the capital investment needed, and the higher the complexity of manufacturing with (because of their architecture) higher replenishment cost."

"The new Non-GEO constellations are expected to cause the biggest disruption in the HTS segment, conspicuously in Consumer Broadband and Backhaul/Enterprise verticals."

"these new LPWAN IoT constellations, despite offering the highest innovative disruption value, are not likely to have a significant impact on the overall satellite industry - financially, contributing just over 2% of overall NGEO revenues by 2027."

"A combination of low revenues and insufficient market capture will restrain at least one EO constellation from closing its business case."

"New IoT constellations such as Hiber, Astrocast and Kepler have a unique business case based on providing low cost, low power IoT solutions. This market is currently addressed by companies like Sigfox and LoRA on the terrestrial side and – to a limited extent – Iridium, Globalstar and Orbcomm on the satellite side."
NSR  market-research  satellite  space  business  LEO  NGSO  IoT  EO  EarthObservation 
may 2018 by pierredv
Internet for the masses not a focus for Kymeta, Phasor - May 2018
"Speaking at the Applied Innovation Conference here May 10, representatives from Kymeta and Phasor said their antennas are not currently being designed for consumer-focused satellite internet."

Jeff Foust: "Representatives of Kymeta and Phasor said that, despite interest in consumer satellite broadband services proposed by companies like OneWeb and SpaceX, they're focused on business and government markets instead, which they see as more lucrative. "

"Other companies like London-based Isotropic Systems and Alcan Systems of Darmstadt, Germany, are building electronically steered antennas with consumer broadband in mind, but those will take more time to reach the market. Isotropic and Alcan are both targeting 2019 releases of sub-$1,000 antennas. Kymeta and Phasor antennas, in contrast, have starting costs of tens of thousands of dollars. "

"Brad Grady, a senior analyst at Northern Sky Research, said his firm forecasts 1.8 million electronically steered, flat-panel antennas to be shipped between 2017 and 2027, with low-Earth orbit (LEO) constellations driving 88 percent of demand. ... Of the 1.8 million terminals to ship, 90 percent will be for broadband access and network backhaul, but will only comprise 30 percent of all revenue, according to the firm. Grady said antennas for inflight connectivity are likely to produce the largest chunk of revenues. "

"Hadsall said Kymeta has been producing 70-centimeter Ku-band antennas since production began in October, and has delivered antennas to 23 customers around the world. ... Helfgott likened Phasor’s focus to that of LeoSat, a broadband startup designing a LEO constellation optimized for enterprise and other such deep-pocketed customers. "
Kymeta  Phasor  satellite  antennas  Alcan  IsotropicSystems  NSR  LEO 
may 2018 by pierredv
NSR: Satellite Manufacturing & Launch Markets Finding a New Normal in $250B Opportunity - Northern Sky Research May 2018
"despite a slow 2017, across the board, the global satellite manufacturing and launch market is poised to generate in excess of $250B in the next decade"

"North America led the market in 2017 and is expected to continue as the global hub of activity, due to both ongoing government demand for high value satellites as well as a robust commercial market. Activity across Asia is closing this gap, however, with China, India, and Japan placing a greater emphasis on competition and capabilities in the space domain. "
NSR  forecasting  trends  satellite  launch  market-analysis  reports  consulting 
may 2018 by pierredv
Satellite and the Arrival of Telecom Pricing? - Northern Sky Research
"The advent of bulk HTS satellite capacity has changed the satcom game. Irreversibly. What started as an alternative to FSS, an innovation with frequency re-use spot beams, has become mainstream and dictated price changes for at least the past 2 years. 60% wholesale price drop across HTS verticals, most prominently for backhaul and consumer broadband, is a telling factor for any industry. The data market is striving to achieve the holy grail of telecom pricing through capacity supply acceleration, led by players like ViaSat, Hughes, SES and upcoming LEOs, among others. Compared to the addition of 600 Gbps in the first 10 years, the above companies will add more than 4.5 Tbps in the next 3 years alone till 2021."

"whether satellite broadband can reach this price point at over a $1B lifetime cost?"

"building a feasible business out of an enormous 1 Tbps satellite needs customers in large volumes – and a price capped at $8-$12 level probably won’t reach current telco pricing that is seen in India."

"CAPEX/Gbps ratios per satellite under $10 from ViaSat-3, Jupiter-3, SES mPower"
NSR  satellite  HTW  business-models 
may 2018 by pierredv
Satellite Constellations: A Critical Assessment - Northern Sky Research Apr 2018
From the email, "LEO-HTS Constellations Present Great Promise but Challenging Business Cases"

From graphic, studied following constellations:
SES mPower (aka O3b)

"NSR predicts two, out of the five Non-GEO HTS constellations analyzed, do not have a viable business case and will not be sustainable, if launched. The remaining three will generate 12% of overall satcom market revenues over the next decade. Costly systems and replenishment cycles, matched against funding challenges, demand questions, and extraordinary technical and regulatory complexity, will separate contenders from pretenders in the high stakes constellations market."

"The associated CAPEX, including replenishment costs, is one the biggest hurdles to HTS, EO, and IoT constellation business plans"

"Vertical integration trends – such as in-house manufacturing and, in the case of SpaceX, incorporating that with its own launch services - aimed at lowering costs further actually add another layer of complexity that is greatly underestimated. Supply chain management is a momentous challenge, ..."

"There is a compelling level of optimism towards Non-GEO constellations, ... However, financial success for LEO constellations depends on their ability to bring pricing down to a level competitive with terrestrial networks and make the services affordable to target markets"
satellite  constellations  LEO  HTS  research  NSR  reports  consulting  market-analysis  market-research  business 
may 2018 by pierredv
Megaconstellations: Recipe for Disaster or Biggest Opportunity Yet? | Via Satellite, April 2018
"within this enthusiasm for large, powerful LEO constellations and the applications they’ll deliver, the voices of caution are growing louder, tempering much of the fervor around pushing fleets of fresh satellites into the skies. Some of the biggest concerns orbit around the topic of space debris"

"Since 2014, space industry consulting firm Northern Sky Research (NSR) has tracked $2.1 billion in investments for broadband megaconstellations (such as LeoSat and OneWeb), plus an additional $1.5 billion in SpaceX. Additionally, since 2016, NSR has tracked $23.7 million invested in satellite Internet of Things (IOT) startups. "

"Over the last several years, the company has spent more than $3 billion on a massive undertaking — refreshing the company’s existing fleet of satellites with a new constellation known as Iridium Next, an architecture consisting of 66 small, interconnected mobile satellites (plus nine on-orbit spares and six ground spares), which will reportedly cover 100 percent of the Earth’s surface, including oceans and polar regions. "

"One of the younger companies in this space, LeoSat Enterprises, is positioning itself as filling the space between traditional satellite and fiber-optic networks."

"But while LEO possesses latency advantages, Steve Collar [SES O3b mPower] says the cost of deployment is too prohibitive. SES plans to launch seven next-generation MEO satellites in 2021"

"The University of Southampton's debris simulation model, Debris Analysis and Monitoring Architecture to the GEO Environment (DAMAGE), offers scientists a glimpse of the worst-case scenario — whereupon a hypothetical large constellation operator disregards existing space debris mitigation guidelines, leading to series of collisions."

"While international guidelines currently recommend that operators remove spacecraft from LEO within 25 years of the end of the life of the spacecraft, Holger Krag [ESA's Space Debris Office] reportedly told attendees at 2017’s European Conference on Space Debris that only 60 percent of operators actually do that."

"a growing number of startups whose business case is based on their power to mitigate debris [e.g. Singapore-based Astroscale] raised $25 million [in 2017, for a] total raise to $53 million"
orbital-debris  ViaSatellite  LEO  satellite  space  LeoSat  Iridium  IoT  SES  NSR  investing 
march 2018 by pierredv
LEO and MEO broadband constellations mega source of consternation - Mar 2018
"the rush to HTS is driving down bandwidth prices so fast that some fairly low-mileage satellites are struggling to keep up."

“At the moment there is a potential scramble for who is going to be the third player between Telesat, LeoSat and SpaceX,” said Farrar. “It’s probably going to be clear in the next 12 months which of those is out ahead.”

"Perhaps the biggest variable in calculating demand is figuring out what consumers will have to pay for the user terminal—the receiver and antennas customers will use to connect to the constellation."

"Farrar is among analysts who doubt consumer broadband will be the biggest application for LEO constellations. Bridging the digital divide is a laudable goal, but backhaul — using satellites to help cellular networks to increase coverage and improve service — is an early market they can dominate with or without cheap antennas."
SpaceNews  NGSO  LEO  MEO  GEO  HTS  broadband  satellite  Tim-Farrar  Armand-Musey  NSR  antennas  Kymeta  Phasor  commerce  trends 
march 2018 by pierredv
Firing It Up at Both Ends? New Launch Vehicles Extend Mass Range - Via Satellite - Mar 2018
"Falcon Heavy has nearly doubled the launch range from a former 14.2 tons to Geostationary Transfer Orbit (GTO), via Delta 4 Heavy, to a whopping 26.7 tons. It has also globalized SpaceX’s addressable market, previously limited to Falcon 9’s capability of 8.3 tons to GTO (and a much smaller 4.5 tons when Falcon Heavy was first announced). Turning to the market’s other new entrant, Rocket Lab’s Electron launch vehicle addresses payloads with a nominal mass of 150 kg and up to 225 kg, reducing the lower limit of the orbital class market by several hundred kilograms."

"With a market Northern Sky Research (NSR) expects to double in the next five years, and a trend of increasing mass from sub-10 kg cubesats to 50 kg-plus microsatellites, Electron’s relevance to the market is evident.

The significance of extended heavy-lift capacity to the market is less clear. "

"Headwinds in the commercial GEO market have gutted demand for manufacturing and launch, with operators striving more than ever for capital expenditure efficiency via delayed procurements and cost-saving designs. Rates of adoption of electric propulsion and digital payloads have surged, reducing average satellite mass. Current demand is thus well addressed by existing launch services, with even new appeal of dual launches on Proton and triple launches on Ariane 5 to further reduce capex with mid-sized GEOs."
ViaSatellite  launch  satellite  SpaceX  RocketLab  GEO  NSR  CarolynBelle 
march 2018 by pierredv
March 2018 - LEO/MEO Satellites Poised to Make a Mark in Military Sector | Via Satellite
"Satellites in LEO and MEO soon will be here to stay thanks to companies like LeoSat, OneWeb, and SES-owned O3b. The question is whether they also can go beyond meeting the needs of commercial and consumer users to also serving the needs of a dispersed, increasingly mobile military. Via Satellite talks to leading LEO and MEO industry figures to see how they envision their constellations supporting military missions globally in a fast-evolving threat environment."

"The United States Defense Information Systems Agency’s (DISA) recent Request for Information (RFI) calling for a low-latency satellite connectivity solution underscores the government’s openness for considering new non-Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) solutions. And that cooperative posture also has been illustrated during the Air Force’s wideband Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) exercise to define the future space architecture, where several LEO and MEO companies put forth their recommendations."

"LeoSat is on schedule to launch two demonstration satellites in the second half of 2019. Launch of the production satellites will begin in late 2020 and the constellation should be complete by 2022." LeoSat's Abad: “We are not looking to bring broadband down to every single person in the world. We want to provide carrier-grade telecommunications services via space.”

"Both LeoSat and OneWeb have received high-profile funding — SKY Perfect JSAT became an anchor investor in LeoSat in May, while OneWeb received $1 billion from Japan’s SoftBank last December, making it a 20 percent equity owner. OneWeb also has partnered with Airbus on its new high-volume production facility in Exploration Park, Florida."

“What needs to change is the ground infrastructure — you can’t build a LEO constellation realistically with two parabolic antennas and expect to reach the scale and volume that these providers talk about,” says Brad Grady, senior analyst in Northern Sky Research’s (NSR)

"NSR estimates that the defense sector will require about 14 gigabits per second of non-GEO HTS capacity demand by 2025, representing an 18 percent annual growth rate from 2015."

“Everyone has figured out that the critical point in launching these new constellations is the antenna system. You can’t have a successful non-GEO network without a very agile, very capable antenna technology,” says David Helfgott, CEO of Phasor, one of a handful of antenna technology providers who will plan to offer Commercial-Off-the-Shelf (COTS) antenna solutions for these up-and-coming constellations in the next 12 to 36 months.
ViaSatellite  LEO  MEO  ElectronicallySteerableAntenna  Phasor  satellite  defense  DoD  SES  NSR  LeoSat  OneWeb  venturecapital  VC  investing  antennas 
march 2018 by pierredv
Chinese Satellite Industry to Disrupt Markets Across Eurasia - Via Satellite -
"Northern Sky Research’s (NSR) China Satcom Markets (CSM) report finds a Chinese satellite industry primed to take a larger share of the global satcom market through attractive one-stop-shop offerings, aggressive growth plans and enhanced exports. For Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) High Throughput Satellites (HTS) alone, NSR forecasts Chinese state-owned companies to manufacture and launch more than 800 Gbps of capacity by 2026, with much of this coming over Southeast Asia, East Asia, and South Asia."

"According to NSR, since the end of the Cold War, the satellite and space industry has been a duopoly between the United States and European Union (EU), with other players such as Russia, Japan, and now India playing a secondary role. At some point soon, however, it appears likely China will assume a position as a top-tier space nation globally, with significant ramifications for the satellite telecoms industry."
ViaSatellite  China  NSR  satellite  business  commerce  geopolitics 
february 2018 by pierredv
Where is the Emerging Space Opportunity? - Northern Sky Research, Oct 2017
NSR’s The Emerging Space Market Opportunity found that the market falls into three broad segments:

Earth -> Space: Infrastructure & Services provided on Earth to facilitate use of Space (e.g. Launch, manufacturing)
Space -> Space: Services delivered in Space (e.g. Satellite servicing, space tourism)
Space -> Earth: Services delivered from Space assets for use on Earth (e.g. Communications satellites, Earth Observation analytics)

… Space -> Earth activities, dominated by satellite constellations and analytics services, have generated strong entrepreneur engagement and the most investor interest.

… The challenge for budding entrepreneurs is that many emerging space markets are saturated with would-be competitors, even while those same competitors have yet to deliver on promises and bring a product to market.
NSR  consultants  space  NewSpace  analysts  investing 
october 2017 by pierredv

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