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pierredv : bias   20

How to upgrade your thinking and avoid traps that make you look stupid | New Scientist
" IQ does correlate with many important outcomes in life, including academic success and job performance in many workplaces. But it is less useful at predicting “wise” decision-making and critical thinking, including the capacity to assess risk and uncertainty and weigh up conflicting evidence."


= "framing – our tendency to view certain statistics more favourably depending on the way they are phrased"

= "sunk cost fallacy: the tendency to pour more resources into a failing project to save sacrificing your initial investment, even though it will ultimately cost you a lot more than simply giving up"

= "gambler’s fallacy, the belief that chance events somehow even themselves out"

= Solomon's paradox: "find it easier to reason wisely about other people’s dilemmas than our own"

= "motivated reasoning, which means we apply our intelligence in a one-sided manner, to build arguments that justify and rationalise our own intuitive views and demolish the arguments of others"

= (perceptions of expertise can lead to) "earned dogmatism – the sense that you have earned the right to remain closed-minded about a subject, while rejecting arguments that disagree with those views"

"The Dunning-Kruger effect has now been replicated many times. Those studies have mostly examined basic skills such as numeracy. If you look at people with specialist expertise, however, a very different picture emerges."

Tips from the sidebar "Keeping your thinking on track"
= self-distancing
= consider the opposite of what you had just been thinking
NewScientist  IQ  intelligence  wisdom  fallacies  tips  bias  risk-assessment  cognitive-bias 
6 weeks ago by pierredv
(56) (PDF) Notes on bias in the socio-material realization of AI technologies | Hans Radder -
These notes are a revised version of an 'extended abstract' submitted to, and presented at, the conference on Bias in AI and Neuroscience, 17-19 June 2019, Radboud University Nijmegen.
AI  philosophy  bias 
6 weeks ago by pierredv
Effortless thinking: Thoughtlessly thoughtless | New Scientist Dec 2017
click through for examples

= see life as a win-lose game
= childish intuitions
= stereotyping
= sycophancy - suckers for celebrity
= conservatism
= tribalism
= religion
= revenge
= confabulation
NewScientist  bias  psychology 
september 2018 by pierredv
Mapping the Ideological Marketplace - Bonica - 2013 - American Journal of Political Science - Wiley Online Library
I develop a method to measure the ideology of candidates and contributors using campaign finance data. Combined with a data set of over 100 million contribution records from state and federal elections, the method estimates ideal points for an expansive range of political actors. The common pool of contributors who give across institutions and levels of politics makes it possible to recover a unified set of ideological measures for members of Congress, the president and executive branch, state legislators, governors, and other state officials, as well as the interest groups and individuals who make political donations. Since candidates fundraise regardless of incumbency status, the method estimates ideal points for both incumbents and nonincumbents. After establishing measure validity and addressing issues concerning strategic behavior, I present results for a variety of political actors and discuss several promising avenues of research made possible by the new measures.
politics  ideology  lobbying  US  bias 
january 2017 by pierredv
How to trump group-think in a post-truth world : Nature News & Comment - Nov 2106
Here, Kahan tells Nature about the real-world consequences of group affinity and cognitive bias, and about research that may point to remedies.
"Hierarchical and individualistic people tend to have confidence in markets and industry: those represent human ingenuity and power. People who are egalitarian and communitarian are suspicious of markets and industry. They see them as responsible for social disparity.

It’s natural to see things you consider honourable as good for society, and things that are base, as bad. Such associations will motivate people’s assessment of evidence."
cognition  bias  psychology  Dan-Kahan  politics  NatureJournal 
december 2016 by pierredv
Why so much science research is flawed – and what to do about it | New Scientist issue 3069, 13 April 2016
"... publication of a paper in Science. It described a major effort to replicate 100 psychology experiments published in top journals. The success rate was little more than a third. People began to talk of a “crisis” in psychology."
“The current system does not reward replication – it often even penalizes people who want to rigorously replicate previous work,” wrote statistician John Ioannidis of Stanford University in California in a recent paper entitled “How to make more published research true”. Proponents of a new discipline called metascience (the science of science) aim to change that, and Ioannidis is in the vanguard.
"Evidence is mounting that medical research is particularly prone to irreproducibility. In 2012, Glenn Begley, a biotech consultant, showed that just 11 per cent of the preclinical cancer studies coming out of the academic pipeline that he sampled were replicable."
NewScientist  transparency  reproducibility  replication  bias 
august 2016 by pierredv
Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which low-ability individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability as much higher than it really is. Dunning and Kruger attributed this bias to a metacognitive inability of those of low ability to recognize their ineptitude and evaluate their ability accurately. Their research also suggests corollaries: high-ability individuals may underestimate their relative competence and may erroneously assume that tasks which are easy for them are also easy for others"
illusions  bias  cognitive-bias 
august 2016 by pierredv
Luck Is a Bigger Contributor to Success Than People Give It Credit For - The Atlantic
"When people see themselves as self-made, they tend to be less generous and public-spirited."
"According to the Pew Research Center, people in higher income brackets are much more likely than those with lower incomes to say that individuals get rich primarily because they work hard. ... That’s troubling, because a growing body of evidence suggests that seeing ourselves as self-made—rather than as talented, hardworking, and lucky—leads us to be less generous and public-spirited."
"Our understanding of human cognition provides one important clue as to why we may see success as inevitable: the availability heuristic. ... Little wonder that when talented, hardworking people in developed countries strike it rich, they tend to ascribe their success to talent and hard work above all else. Most of them are vividly aware of how hard they’ve worked and how talented they are."
"Our personal narratives are biased in a second way: Events that work to our disadvantage are easier to recall than those that affect us positively."
"Social scientists have been studying gratitude intensively for almost two decades, and have found that it produces a remarkable array of physical, psychological, and social changes."
Work by Emmons and McCullough: "they asked a first group of people to keep diaries in which they noted things that had made them feel grateful, a second group to note things that had made them feel irritated, and a third group to simply record events. After 10 weeks, the researchers reported dramatic changes in those who had noted their feelings of gratitude."
theAtlantic  luck  success  philanthropy  bias  gratitude  psychology 
june 2016 by pierredv
How scientists fool themselves – and how they can stop : Nature News & Comment
Perlmutter: "Science is an ongoing race between our inventing ways to fool ourselves, and our inventing ways to avoid fooling ourselves"
reproducibility  scientific-method  bias  quotations  NatureJournal 
october 2015 by pierredv
7 mind slips that cause catastrophe – and how we can avoid them = New Scientist
confirmation bias; fixation error; primal freeze; outcome bias; group think; default mode; tech clash
NewScientist  bias  decisionmaking  fear  medicine  aviation 
october 2015 by pierredv
Understand faulty thinking to tackle climate change - Opinion - George Marshall - Aug 2014
Kahneman "regards climate change as a perfect trigger [for loss aversion]: a distant problem that requires sacrifices now to avoid uncertain losses far in the future." "... the real problem: climate change is exceptionally amorphous. It provides us with no defining qualities that would give it a clear identity: no deadlines, no geographic location, no single cause or solution and, critically, no obvious enemy. ... leaving climate change wide open to another of Kahneman's biases – an "assimilation bias" that bends information to fit people's existing values and prejudices." "This silence is similar to that found around human rights abuses, argued the late Stanley Cohen" "Our response to climate change is uncannily similar to an even more universal disavowal: unwillingness to face our own mortality, says neuroscientist Janis Dickinson" "it is a mistake to assume that the scientific evidence of climate change will flow directly into action – or, conversely, that climate denial can be"
metaphor  rhetoric  climate-change  politics  bias  loss-aversion  assimilation-bias  narrative 
october 2014 by pierredv
Bias | ACM Interactions - Jonathan Grudin
"Confirmation bias is built into us. Ask me to guess what a blurry image is, then bring it slowly into focus. When it has become clear enough to be recognizable by someone seeing it this way for the first time, I will still not recognize it. My initial hypothesis blinds me. Quantitative studies are no guard against these problems. In fact, they often exhibit a seductive form of confirmation bias: inference of a causal relationship from correlational data, a major problem in conference and journal submissions I have reviewed over the years. Am I biased about the importance of confirmation bias? I’m convinced that we must relentlessly seek it out in our own work and that of our colleagues, knowing that we won’t always succeed. Perhaps now I see it everywhere and overlook more significant obstacles. So decide how important it is, and be vigilant."
qualititative  methods  experiment  grounded  theory  confirmation  bias  correlation  vs  causation  Francis  Bacon  bias  statistics 
august 2013 by pierredv
In Defense of Favoritism - The Chronicle Review - The Chronicle of Higher Education
"We confuse our kids and ourselves about fairness. Most of the stories of children's culture pull a sleight-of-hand trick. They regularly address two worthy qualities that every child should cultivate—sharing and open-mindedness (toward people who are different). But while we all approve of the great virtues of sharing and diversity, we are informed that these are matters of fairness and equality—which, in point of fact, they are not."
via:ald  philosophy  phil  ethics  morality  bias 
november 2012 by pierredv
Political divides begin in the brain - opinion - 10 April 2012 - New Scientist
Based on John Hibbing's work, exploring wither political preferences might be based in biology.
Differences between liberals and conservatives in aversive stimuli, differences in brain structure: conservatives have larger right amygdala, liberals have more grey matter in anterior cingulate cortex. For example in startle reflexes: "Conservatives on average really do seem to respond to fear and threat differently, and to focus on what Hibbing calls the "aversive" in life, rather than the "appetitive"."
Liberals rate higher on openness, conservatives higher on conscientiousness
*  brain-ACC  brain-amygdala  psychology  bias  politics  opinion 
july 2012 by pierredv
Is crime a virus or a beast? How metaphors shape our thoughts and decisions | Discover Magazine
"Kelling argued that the cops hadn’t wilfully neglected their duties. Their actions were swayed by their views of police-work, which were in turn affected by metaphors. They saw themselves as crime-fighters who trod the “thin blue line” protecting innocent civilians from criminal marauders. With this role entrenched in their minds, they saw their job as catching the rapist, even at the expense of preventing further crimes. As Kelling said, the eight Buffalo schoolgirls “were victims, though no one realized it at the time, not only of a rapist, but of a metaphor.”"
psychology  metaphor  crime  bias  decision-making 
july 2011 by pierredv
I am a one-man conspiracy, apparently = Dissimulation Disco
David Levine recently discovered he is a central figure in a conspiracy theory regarding aliens and a government cover-up
"I think I can give some interesting insight on exactly how a coincidence, a large number of misunderstandings, and a core weird idea or two can combine to create a convincing (to some people) conspiracy."
conspiracy  via:gmsv  texts  bias 
may 2010 by pierredv
The origins of prejudice | The price of prejudice | The Economist Jan 09
Report on experiments into subconscious prejudice. In the first, subjects were asked to pick team mates; they "reported that weight was the least important factor in their choice. However, their actual decisions revealed that no other attribute counted more heavily. In fact, they were willing to sacrifice quite a bit to have a thin team-mate. They would trade 11 IQ points—about 50% of the range of IQs available—for a colleague who was suitably slender." In the second experiment, they had to choose between job offers: "When it came to salary, location and holiday, the students’ decisions matched their stated preferences. However, the boss’s sex turned out to be far more important than they said it was (this was true whether a student was male or female). In effect, they were willing to pay a 22% tax on their starting salary to have a male boss."
psychology  behavior  economist  bias 
january 2009 by pierredv

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