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pierredv : fallacies   6

How to upgrade your thinking and avoid traps that make you look stupid | New Scientist
" IQ does correlate with many important outcomes in life, including academic success and job performance in many workplaces. But it is less useful at predicting “wise” decision-making and critical thinking, including the capacity to assess risk and uncertainty and weigh up conflicting evidence."

Biases:

= "framing – our tendency to view certain statistics more favourably depending on the way they are phrased"

= "sunk cost fallacy: the tendency to pour more resources into a failing project to save sacrificing your initial investment, even though it will ultimately cost you a lot more than simply giving up"

= "gambler’s fallacy, the belief that chance events somehow even themselves out"

= Solomon's paradox: "find it easier to reason wisely about other people’s dilemmas than our own"

= "motivated reasoning, which means we apply our intelligence in a one-sided manner, to build arguments that justify and rationalise our own intuitive views and demolish the arguments of others"

= (perceptions of expertise can lead to) "earned dogmatism – the sense that you have earned the right to remain closed-minded about a subject, while rejecting arguments that disagree with those views"

"The Dunning-Kruger effect has now been replicated many times. Those studies have mostly examined basic skills such as numeracy. If you look at people with specialist expertise, however, a very different picture emerges."

Tips from the sidebar "Keeping your thinking on track"
= self-distancing
= consider the opposite of what you had just been thinking
NewScientist  IQ  intelligence  wisdom  fallacies  tips  bias  risk-assessment  cognitive-bias 
5 weeks ago by pierredv
Good Data and Flawed Conclusions - WSJ.com
"'Simpson's Paradox reveals that aggregated data can appear to reverse important trends in the numbers being combined"
An excellent piece of reporting. Starting with a seeming anomaly in the unemployment numbers, Cari Tuna builds a story that ties together anomalies in college admission data, surgical outcomes and baseball batting averages. It boils down to Simpson's Paradox, which explains how aggregated data can appear to reverse important trends in the numbers being combined. (Clue: weighted averages.) If you're a visual learner, skip to the graph at the bottom of the story.
statistics  economics  illusions  fallacies  x:wsj  *** 
december 2009 by pierredv
The lure of the conspiracy theory - being-human - 11 July 2007 - New Scientist
Psychologist Patrick Leman on why, when an unforgettable event rocks our world, we so often mistrust the official explanation. Calls it "major event, major cause" reasoning
NewScientist  cognition  psychology  hardproblems  fallacies 
september 2007 by pierredv
The Frontal Cortex : The Neuroscience of Gambling#comments
how the dopaminergic response works, and how the dopamine process is bamboozled be slot machines - example of "neurological fallacy"
fallacies  psychology  neuroscience 
july 2007 by pierredv
The Traveler's Dilemma - Scientific American:
a variation of the Prisoner's dilemma, with a discussion of why people might not make the logically rational choice
fallacies  behavior  logic  psychology 
june 2007 by pierredv

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