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pierredv : market-research   32

GEO vs. Non-GEO: Who Wins the $90+ Billion Consumer Broadband Opportunity? - NSR Nov 2019
"Considering the above factors and The Inclusive Internet Index data, NSR estimates the global total addressable market (opportunity) for satellite broadband to be 433+ million households where the current SATCOM service penetration is only 0.63%. The big question is: how much revenue can the SATCOM industry achieve out of this massive addressable market?"

"lthough the Non-GEO players’ business model is primarily based on the consumer broadband segment, it will be the GEO-HTS camp that will capture 89% market share of total service revenues."

"the yet-to-prove Non-GEO business model must contend with the ground segment as their main bottleneck. Current Non-Geo ground segment prices are nowhere near the needed consumer broadband segment pricing."

"Looking at Non-GEO service pricing, it is too early to determine their entry level service pricing in a region. Also, current Non-GEO equipment pricing is far from the reach of consumer broadband customers."

"during the forecast period it is highly unlikely that a Non-GEO player will capture a leadership position in the consumer market owing to their current financial, infrastructural and technology state/challenges. Undoubtedly, GEO-HTS players will have better penetration with most suitable pricing in the segment resulting in 89% revenue share."
NSR  market-research  satellite  business-models  NGSO  GEO 
11 weeks ago by pierredv
LEO Survival of the Fittest…or the Smartest? - NSR
"Financial “fitness” can be thought of as the funding – either self or outside – that is essential for breaking the barriers to entry and for survival in the short-term. “Smartness” can be considered as the right target market, pricing strategy, capability and repeatability to ensure long-term sustainability. So, when it comes to LEO HTS Constellation survival, what is the answer to the question: Fit or smart?"

"A grand total of almost $48 B [in capex] must be invested to deploy all constellations as they are currently planned."

"From this assessment, based on the funding status and CAPEX to funding ratio, OneWeb is the “fittest” player today. That said, even though Amazon does not have any announced funding at this stage, NSR believes their deep pockets ensure that this will not be a challenge in the launch of Project Kuiper."

"... revenue estimates are a different game altogether. NSR forecasts $43.6B in overall Non-GEO revenues over the 2018 – 2028 period. "

"To compensate for higher than anticipated expenses during the early stages, OneWeb has shifted their short -term priority towards higher revenue generating applications. "

"As one of the biggest constellations planned, SpaceX’s constellation is also associated with the highest expenses. With over $1B in funding raised so far, it makes up a mere 7% of the total estimated CAPEX. ... Starlink’s architecture does allow SpaceX to offer high speed Internet to markets with high price tolerance. But will the market size be big enough to support SpaceX’s long-term plans?"

"The latest news from Telesat indicates it will hedge its bets with a hybrid architecture."

"Short-term “fitness” remains the biggest question for LeoSat as they work towards lowering the overall system CAPEX."
NSR  LEO  NGSO  market-research  OneWeb  SpaceX  Telesat  LeoSat  Amazon 
july 2019 by pierredv
FPAs: Moving Parts Still Have the Upper Hand - NSR Apr 2019
"Given the number of Non-GEO HTS constellations announced, from early "launch, full production, and those in early development, it is safe to say the skies will be filling up fast with more satellite capacity than ever before. On the ground, development of next-generation, electronically-steered terminals continues with announcements such by Kymeta, Phasor, and OmniAccess among others. Given this, all signs indicate that electronically-steered antennas (ESAs), which will inherently decrease the number of moving parts, are key to the future of satcom. However, delays are quite common, from Kymeta requiring 5 years to ship their first product, and Phasor postponing their ESA deployment, to name just a few.

Meanwhile, mechanically-steered antennas (MSAs) are on the market now, with developed supply chains and partnerships, doing the job with a host of moving parts."

"According to NSR’s Flat Panel Satellite Antennas, 4th Edition, annual shipments of mechanically-steered antennas (MSA) FPAs will grow to over 48,000 units by 2028, with over 7,000 shipped last year. MSAs are forecasted to represent only 3% of all future shipped FPAs, yet they represent 95% of the market today. In fact, despite ESA development, MSAs are expected to retain leadership in key verticals."

"Advanced capabilities are desired, but reliability is required."
NSR  satellite  antennas  Kymeta  Phasor  market-research  ESA 
april 2019 by pierredv
Satcom Future Hinges on Electronically-Steered FPAs - NSR Mar 2019
"When the term “flat panel antenna” (FPA) is mentioned, most envision a completely flat, non-moving piece of communications technology. These systems, specifically electronically-steered antennas (ESAs), capable of faster tracking and pointing than parabolic ones, are seen as an impending necessity for satcom, especially given the soon-to-be full skies of LEO constellations. Interest and development in this technology has grown significantly in recent years, from Kymeta shipping the first commercial ESAs in 2017 to large contracts signed, pending product release.

However, ESA technology is still under-developed, mostly unavailable, expensive to engineer and suffering numerous delays. Currently, only 4 manufacturers (Kymeta, hiSky, SatCube, and SatPro) have ESAs for broadband-via-satellite available on the market, and given the importance of this technology for LEO networks, one wonders just when will this technology take off, and what happens if it does not?"

"NSR’s Flat Panel Satellite Antennas, 4th Edition report forecasts the market to transition strongly after 2020, with ESAs accounting for 97% of FPAs shipped in 2028. While mechanically-steered antennas (MSAs) currently dominate the FPA market, at 95.5% of shipped units, non-GEO networks, competition, and improved technology are expected to strongly pivot market take-up once LEO constellations are launched and operational. However, MSAs have begun to make successful inroads, and in some cases are expected to continue to provide competition to ESAs even after the technology becomes more available."
NSR  satellite  antennas  FPA  ESA  market-research 
march 2019 by pierredv
FPAs: From a Niche to a Necessity - NSR Feb 2019
"While the goalposts for the greater take-up of FPAs keep moving further out, the networks of tomorrow may set requirements that are too demanding for parabolic antennas. This in turn, pressures flat panel technology to come to fruition sooner rather than later in the hope of moving it from a niche product to a necessity. Given the state of play today, how likely is it that FPAs will serve the networks of tomorrow and star in that lead role?"

"NSR’s recently published Flat Panel Satellite Antennas, 4th Edition report considers it likely, but very challenging to get the role. The report forecasts over 1.5 million units to ship in 2028, growing at a strong CAGR of 71.2%. Mobility will continue to dominate equipment revenues, with complex capabilities keeping terminals expensive. Volume will be driven by Fixed Applications, specifically Consumer Broadband, but only if manufacturers are given more incentives to drive down prices to target the largest addressable markets."
antennas  satellite  NSR  market-research 
february 2019 by pierredv
Smallsat Growth on Shaky Foundations - NSR Feb 2019
"While the relative simplicity and the associated low-cost architecture are enabling (the much needed) easier access to the space applications, the challenge lies in the readiness of the existing infrastructure to support this rapidly growing market."

"A market that has historically been relatively slow to develop will now experience an accelerated expansion. This is bound to put immense pressure on the existing infrastructure and the different stakeholders in the supply and value chain."

Challenges:

= Satellite Manufacturing Constraints - "Tier 2 and Tier 3 components such as electronic systems and subsystems are expected to create considerable bottlenecks."

= Launch Constraints - "launch segment is expected to remain one of the biggest bottlenecks of the small satellite market over the next decade"

= In-Orbit Challenges - "lack of adequate space traffic tracking and management regime"
NSR  satellite  smallsats  market-research 
february 2019 by pierredv
Are Satellite Handhelds Still a Growth Market? - NSR Feb 2019
"Because of this trend towards event driven usage, handhelds as a share of satellite land mobile will continue to decline long-term."

"With increased terrestrial and 5G networks around the corner, handheld unit sales have suffered, and so offering hybrid solutions and services will characterize ecosystems for land-mobile connectivity in the coming decade. While these networks have already significantly impacted both growth usage of handhelds, cellular compatibility can boost usage with other device types"
NSR  satellite  market-research 
february 2019 by pierredv
Connected Buses & Trains: In the Express Lane? - NSR
"NSR’s recently published report, Land Mobile via Satellite, 6th Edition found total retail revenues for connected vehicles in 2027 will exceed $650 million, with 32% driven by trains and 45% by buses, indicating significant demand driven by intercity passenger journeys. Nearly half of this is derived from equipment revenues, signifying a large ground segment opportunity in this market, which will be almost entirely captured by flat panel antenna (FPA) manufacturers and associated hardware and installation."

"Hispasat, through a partnership with Phasor, have realised this and are trialling connected buses in Latin America, where long distance, intercity bus travel is the norm."
NSR  satellite  business  antennas  market-research  Phasor 
january 2019 by pierredv
Satcom in 2019: Leasing vs. Services & the Year Ahead - NSR Jan 2019
"2018 emerged as an understatement compared to the hype generated by satellite operators. Revenue didn’t rebound according to expectations, pricing and backlog both declined across operators, and video finally showed no signs of further growth, as multiple operators posted revenue declines in video even with marginally increasing demand.

"Looking downstream, suffice it to say that service providers had a marquee year, extending growth into crucial aero and consumer broadband segments, with maritime and backhaul a close second."

"Based on strong market forecasts in segments such as Broadband, Aero, and Maritime, global service providers can be expected to approximately double their revenues in the next 4-5 years, considering the current growth strategy, via organic or inorganic means. Lease markets strongly contrast this trend, with most operators expecting a decline in lease revenues in the near to medium term, owing to the latest fleet renewal that cannibalizes legacy FSS fleets on a pricing basis in both video and data verticals."
NSR  satellite  business  market-research 
january 2019 by pierredv
NSR Report: Satellite Broadband & Enterprise VSAT to Generate $159 Billion in Next Decade - NSR Jan 2019
“Satellite Consumer Broadband is just scratching the surface of the opportunity, capturing less than 1% of the potential addressable market,”

"Even with these measures, data caps are still very restrictive with the current balance between ARPUs and capacity pricing. However, once prices decline below 100 USD/Mbps/Month, data allowances can grow generously, activating demand elasticities."

"At the service level, value is climbing to higher layers, like security or app-specific tools, as connectivity commoditizes."
NSR  satellite  broadband  market-research  press-release  VSAT 
january 2019 by pierredv
Earth Observation: Not Just Imagery - NSR, Jan 2019
"In an industry dominated by optical and radar imaging satellites, it is not surprising to see diversification into non-imagery assets, such as the recent announcements from Spire, GeoOptics, and GHGsat. Radio occultation, greenhouse gas monitoring, infrared, the market is expanding, looking for new ways to monitor human activity and the changing world.

NSR’s Satellite-Based Earth Observation, 10th Edition report forecasts the revenue opportunity from non-imagery data to grow to almost $255M by 2027, at a CAGR of 45.7%. Early investment from Public Authorities, Weather, and Energy customers is expected to drive the market, until supply and data pipelines are matured, when Services and Industrial verticals especially will show more interest."

"... NSR forecasts the opportunity to shift in the favor of these downstream services, from 5% of total non-imagery EO revenues coming from IP and Big Data analytics in 2017 to 74% by 2027."
NSR  satellite  remote-sensing  EarthObservation  EO  market-research 
january 2019 by pierredv
NSR’s Satcom Financial Index 2018- Dissecting the Trends - NSR Dec 2018
"Recent (Q2 or Q3) financial results have been a mixed bag for the industry. Video revenues have consistently declined on a YoY basis for most operators including Intelsat, Eutelsat, SES and EchoStar Satellite Services, while most operators have posted gains in network connectivity – most prominently in Government and mobile connectivity verticals, including ViaSat. To say that the latter two verticals remain the growth story in the near term is a massive understatement – while one must also take into consideration significant progress in consumer broadband by Hughes and in mobile backhaul by SES (MEO)."

"Though, barring equipment sales by the top two integrated operators, overall growth looks to be lagging in 2018. Many satcom operators seem to be missing targets, especially on video, with capacity prices continuously falling even in developed markets of the world. There is likewise high regional competition, as well as the terrestrial pressure, and given that video still forms the bulk of the GEO industry revenues today, overall growth is stagnating in the near term."
NSR  satellite  market-research  business 
december 2018 by pierredv
EO Smallsat Market: Where to Go from Here? - NSR Nov 2018
"Smallsat operators, now more than 40, all expect to capture a sizeable piece of the EO downstream market. The questions are: How big is this pie and who is it for?"

"NSR’s Satellite-Based Earth Observation, 10th Edition report forecasts the EO smallsat downstream market will experience double-digit CAGRs, and cumulatively account for $9.7B in revenue over the next decade. Growth will come from all verticals, but a large segment of this growth is to arrive in the form of Big Data analytics for Defense & Intelligence and Managed Living Resources (Agriculture, Forestry, etc.)."

"Another factor driving change and growth in the industry is the devaluation of imagery and the growing focus on Big Data analytics. Currently, Big Data analytics players favor MR imagery due to its easier access and lower costs. However, upcoming supply and growing archives are serving to depreciate the cost of imagery, lowering the barrier to entry for utilization of HR imagery."
NSR  smallsats  EO  remote-sensing  market-research 
november 2018 by pierredv
In-flight connectivity will be main driver of high-data-rate satellites, AnalysysMason Oct 2018
"Wi-Fi on board passenger aircraft will become the main driver of demand for next-generation high-data-rate satellites."

"We were asked to develop new regional market forecasts to 2025 for the following markets.
= Service provider trunking. Traditional point-to-point connectivity for telecoms service providers and mobile backhaul.
= High-bandwidth enterprise services. Both land-based and offshore services.
= Mobility platforms. In-flight connectivity (IFC) for passenger aircraft; connectivity for cruise ships, ferries and other large vessels; passenger connectivity on railway trains."

"We forecast that the worldwide market for high-speed satellite trunking services will grow in value from EUR1.9 billion in 2017 to EUR4.7 billion in 2025. We believe that the fastest-growing segment will be in-flight connectivity for passenger aircraft, where wholesale revenue will grow from EUR278 million in 2017 to EUR1.9 billion in 2025."
AnalysysMason  satellite  Wi-Fi  market-research 
october 2018 by pierredv
NSR Report: Earth Observation Markets to Generate $54 Billion in Revenue by 2027 - NSR, Oct 2018
"NSR’s Satellite-Based Earth Observation (EO), 10th Edition report, released today, projects Earth Observation satellite data and services will represent a $54 billion cumulative opportunity over the next ten years, growing to $6.9 billion annually in 2027"

"The market’s evolution toward more on-demand data and services will be driven by satellite constellations, high-volume imagery platforms, and subscriptions"

"As the EO industry continues to shift from imagery to insights, ... a greater opportunity for downstream Information Products and Big Data analytics, than for the sale of data."

"the market is expected to face aggressive consolidation"
NSR  EO  remote-sensing  EarthObservation  satellite  business  market-research  data-analytics  analytics 
october 2018 by pierredv
Satellite Big Data 3L’s: Location, Location, Location — NSR's Big Data Analytics , Satnews Daily Sep 2018
Article by Shivaprakash Muruganandham, NSR Analys

"NSR’s Big Data Analytics via Satellite, 2nd Edition report identifies seven vertical markets as growth areas, and more than 70 percent of the share is held by the Transportation, Government and Military (Gov/Mil) and Energy markets throughout the forecast period."

Transportation

"The mobile nature of the transportation segment ensures that it remains important throughout the next decade, with nearly 1 out of every three dollars spent on SBD coming from land, maritime and aeronautical transport segments."

Government & Military

"NSR finds growth in this sector to be largely driven by the rise of geospatial intelligence (GEOINT), with EO applications growing at nearly twice the rate of M2M/IoT SATCOM applications"

Energy

"M2M/IoT SATCOM will continue to play a major role in Energy, due to the remote nature of asset locations and the absence of terrestrial solutions."

"NSR’s considers that EO satellite-based analytics services are expected to grow in importance for this vertical, despite competition from unmanned aerial system (UAS) alternatives. This growth will be fueled by the rise of new sensing capabilities such as methane tracking and emissions monitoring solutions for O&G companies looking to mitigate financial risks."
NSR  market-research  satellite  data-analytics  Satnews  EO  remote-sensing  UAS 
october 2018 by pierredv
The ROI Challenge of IoT Smallsats - NSR, Oct 2018
"In the recently released M2M and IoT via Satellite, 9th Edition report, NSR projected over 3.7 million smallsat IoT in-service units by 2027; this will generate approx. $133 million in retail revenues during the same year, but it only represents an overall share of only 5% of total satellite M2M/IoT revenues. ARPUs will be low on smallsat IoT networks"

"To turn a profit on these small satellite constellations purely from IoT, millions of IoT devices will be required. On each constellation. With only several million connected devices to come online on smallsats over the coming decade, competition will be extremely fierce between the 15+ constellations for this purpose, with most either merging or never actually launching."

"Further, satellite renewals must be considered, as the average life span for these satellites is up to 3 years. Any launch failure would significantly impact latency and IoT performance. Nonetheless, NSR expects a few smallsat IoT constellations to reach positive ROIs within the next 10 years, assuming additional financing is available to maintain positive cash flow over the first few years of launch."

"Low data rates (a few bytes) per packet transferred are fine for now; however, this fails to consider the growth of data requirements coming from big data analysis. This results in additional levels of data that will be transmitted, despite more analysis being done at the ‘edge’ and not transmitted via satellite. This is where ‘bigsat’ constellations such as Iridium NEXT and Globalstar’s second generation network come into play."

Bottom line: "the ROI on comparatively low-cost CAPEX of smallsats is depressed by even lower ARPUs and end-user demand."
NSR  market-research  business  satellite  smallsats  IoT  M2M  investing  Kepler  Iridium  Globalstar 
october 2018 by pierredv
Insight-as-a-Service for Satellite Networks - NSR Sep 2018
"The terrestrial telecom industry is fast shifting towards 5G networks, with Software Defined Networks (SDN) and Network Functions Virtualization (NFV) forming key parts of major strategic efforts. This is seen in multiple market movements where organizations such as Verizon, AT&T and Ericsson have begun to shift towards adopting SDN/NFV approaches to manage increasingly complex networks. But what does this mean for satellite players, and how can they remain competitive?

With satellite operators beginning to unlock value behind pixels and bits, the industry is moving downstream towards a data-driven application business. Earth Observation (EO) and Machine-to-Machine (M2M) / Internet-of-Things (IoT) satcom stand at an inflection point. While most of the opportunity will remain in the application layer, a parallel story is emerging in the network layer as well."

"NSR’s Big Data Analytics via Satellite, 2nd Edition report establishes the revenue potential for satellite big data lies largely in the Transportation, Gov/Mil and Energy markets."

"A major driving force of this growth is the increasing complexity of networks."

"... in late 2017, SES used dynamic bandwidth allocation based on SDN principles on its O3b fleet."
NSR  satellite  5G  SDN  NFV  EO  remote-sensing  M2M  IoT  market-research  SES  O3b 
september 2018 by pierredv
M2M and IoT via Satellite, 9th Edition - NSR - Sep 2018
From press release in email 9/23, dd 9/25, "NSR Report: Smallsats to Accelerate M2M/IoT Satcom Market"

"NSR’s M2M and IoT via Satellite, 9th Edition report forecasts smallsat M2M/IoT constellations are set to propel market growth via low latency, low cost, albeit low ARPU, service. NSR’s first time forecast for this emerging smallsat market shows tremendous potential with 3.7 million M2M/IoT in-service units projected by 2027, representing 37% of overall satcom terminals."

"constellations such as Astrocast, Hiber, Kepler Communications and many more will target satcom M2M/IoT applications with ARPUs set to $1 per month or even lower"

"viability of new smallsat constellations in this market is more likely than their large LEO telecom counterparts due to much lower system CAPEX"
NSR  satellite  market-research  IoT  M2M  business 
september 2018 by pierredv
NSR Report: Non-GEO Satellites to Dominate Supply, Adding over 25 Tbps in Next Decade - NSR
"NSR’s Global Satellite Capacity Supply & Demand, 15th Edition report finds Non-GEO Satellite (NGSO) annual capacity revenues will skyrocket to $4 billion by 2027. These networks offer a new set of attributes for customers such as low latency, full mesh connectivity, or high-bandwidth per terminal, and will be key to unlocking new greenfield markets. However, CAPEX exposure is massive, and new revenue drivers might not be enough to pay back initial investments. Consequently, there is a risk of price disruption for the entire industry if these new players dump capacity to poach customers from legacy verticals."
NSR  market-research  satellite  business  NGSO 
september 2018 by pierredv
LEO-HTS Constellations Present Great Promise but Challenging Business Cases - NSR May 2018
"NSR’s industry-first Satellite Constellations: A Critical Analysis report, released today, forecasts a mixed outcome for large HTS constellations. NSR predicts two, out of the five Non-GEO HTS constellations analyzed, do not have a viable business case and will not be sustainable, if launched. The remaining three will generate 12% of overall satcom market revenues over the next decade. Costly systems and replenishment cycles, matched against funding challenges, demand questions, and extraordinary technical and regulatory complexity, will separate contenders from pretenders in the high stakes constellations market."

“The reduced launch and manufacturing costs are indeed enabling trends; however, there are still many challenges, like those associated with ground infrastructure costs and acquisition of landing rights, that must be overcome to build a feasible business model. The benefits from economies of scale, which mega-constellations rely upon, are generally not enough to counter these other challenges,”
NSR  market-research  business  satellite  HTS  NGSO  satellite-constellations 
september 2018 by pierredv
Milking the “Cow” or Shooting for the “Stars” - Northern Sky Research Aug 2018
"While HTS attracts the hype and promises rapid revenue growth, the truth is that today, FSS, and most specifically video, continues to be the bread and butter of satellite operators. According to NSR’s Global Satellite Capacity Supply and Demand, 15th Edition report, cumulative satellite capacity revenues over the next 10 years will surpass $189 billion, with widebeam FSS still driving 53% of these revenues. How should satellite operators balance growth and revenues?"

"Several HTS payloads have been slow in attracting customers as the operators underestimated the effort to develop sales channels. Similarly, network management for a widebeam satellite is much simpler than for an HTS satellite."
NSR  satellite  HTS  GEO  FSS  business  market-research 
august 2018 by pierredv
Satellite EOL: Not One Size Fits All - Northern Sky Research Jul 2018
"A satellite launched in the 1990s was designed to operate for an average 12 years, a life expectancy that by the 2000s increased to 15 years. Many continue to operate for 18 years or more, but 15 remains the prevailing design life. Yet with operators seeking new strategies in today’s challenging market, and technology advancing at an ever-faster pace, could the 15-year GEO satellite life be a standard of the past?"

"NSR’s Satellite Manufacturing and Launch Services, 8th Edition, found that commercial GEO communications satellites in-orbit today have an average age of 8.9 years. Only 17.2% of current satellites are in the process of being replenished, indicating that a slate of new orders – or decisions to not replace aging satellites – are coming in the next few years."

"Many elements contribute to a satellite reaching EOL or experiencing a reduction in capabilities, but exhaustion of fuel most commonly drives the 15-year design life. As operators increasingly turn to electric propulsion, this driver will ease, enabling satellites to remain in station-kept orbit longer than with chemical designs. A more near-term solution to lengthen satellite lifetimes is to use in-orbit servicing vehicles, either for refueling or as a tug to provide station keeping."

"Interest in short, 7-8-year lifetimes has also emerged."
NSR  market-research  satellite  business  space  GEO 
july 2018 by pierredv
EO Investment Picture: Worth More Than a Thousand Words - Northern Sky Research Jul 2018
"The Earth Observation (EO) market has been in constant evolution and recently, it has transitioned from costly, large EO satellites to smaller, more nimble ones flying as part of constellations. Using many small satellites is enabling real-time earth monitoring and observation, and with this, increasingly large amounts of data are being produced every day. Additionally, medium resolution imaging (1 m. to 5 m.) is abundant, and its price relatively low and declining."

"This combination of price decrease and data profusion has created a business opportunity favoring the entrance of new players and the application of digital technologies into new business models,"

"Small satellite constellations with new sensor technologies have enabled data and imaging of the Earth in large amounts, thereby allowing for a new set of companies to arise at the intersection of low-priced imagery and digital technologies: data analytics.

And it is not by coincidence that NSR’s research found almost 90% of new space companies dedicated to EO are for data analytics; inexpensive imagery and digital technologies can deliver high value intelligence applications at a much cheaper cost."

"45% of new EO companies were founded in North America and captured 84% of total investments."

"Diving deeper into 2017, and more particularly into the dynamic North American market, NSR’s analysis shows most investor attention was focused on two companies: Orbital Insights and Descartes Labs. "
NSR  satellite  space  EarthObservation  remote-sensing  business  market-research  data-analytics  investing  EO  OrbitalInsights  DescartesLabs 
july 2018 by pierredv
Airlines to Take IFC Controls - Northern Sky Research Jul 2018
"NSR forecasts in its Aeronautical Satcom Markets, 6th Edition that the total satellite connectivity opportunity for IFC will reach $4.7 B in retail revenues annually by 2027 and most of it, roughly $3.8 B, will be generated from commercial passenger markets"

"To ‘share the load’ of IFC, airlines are taking more control over the interface where passengers (and sometimes 3rd party third-party payers in the hybrid model) are increasingly tapped to generate revenues. As service providers look to retreat from the expenses of paying for IFC in order to become more profitable, it is likely that the burden of costs will shift to airlines. "
NSR  satellite  market-research  broadband  IFC  aviation 
july 2018 by pierredv
Enabling a GEO-NGEO Hybrid System - Northern Sky Research, Jul 2018
"The Military segment has, historically, primarily been served by GEO satellites for execution of critical applications, including intelligence gathering, navigation and communication. GEO systems, by nature, offer the advantage of significant coverage via a single satellite, especially with the advent of GEO-HTS satellites. On the other hand, latency and significant CAPEX have always been limitations of the GEO architecture. These drawbacks have given rise to the emerging trend of LEO and MEO constellations (NGEO) that can offer low latency and lower cost per satellite. However, constellations have their own set of constraints, with system complexity, ground infrastructure costs and frequency spectrum coordination, to name a few. Considering both, the shortcomings as well as the strengths of each system, could this perhaps be the start of an integration between GEO and LEO/MEO operators with a hybrid GEO-NGEO system on the rise? "

"Keeping the overall system costs low, however, is where it gets complex for NGEO framework. Although the manufacturing and launch costs per satellite are relatively lower, the need for a considerable number of satellites, the associated replenishment costs and the ground infrastructure expenses – all intensify the overall system cost."

"NSR estimates just over 1% of total revenues for gov/military will come from Non-GEO constellations by 2027."

"[TCO] is a key driver for NGEO constellations, military and otherwise, and is as well one of the biggest challenges for the operators presently. Simply put, either the expenses, mostly CAPEX, need to drop or the revenues need to grow for the business case to sustain. This is where a GEO-NGEO Hybrid architecture could prove pragmatic."

"Intelsat’s and OneWeb’s unsuccessful attempt towards a strategic alliance was one example of this hybrid system. GEO operators JSAT and Hispasat have similarly announced strategic investment in LEO constellations including LeoSat."

"Another level of integration, perhaps more technically innovative, and therefore challenging, is a system where GEO satellites can handle the TT&C operations for LEO constellations and act as the base station control system of the network."
NSR  GEO  NGSO  Intelsat  OneWeb  LeoSat  SES  O3b  satellite  constellations  military  DARPA  business  market-research 
july 2018 by pierredv
US Government and Military Satellite Market, Forecast to 2022, Jan 2017
"The US government is the single largest purchaser of commercial satellite services in the world, and accounted for $1.34 billion in 2015."
satellite  space  forecast  market-research  USG  DoD 
june 2018 by pierredv
In-Orbit Servicing Markets (IoSM) - Northern Sky Research June 2018
With the first commercial servicing spacecraft slated to launch in 2018, NSR’s industry-first In-Orbit Servicing Markets (IoSM) study dives into the market dynamics and challenges shaping this nascent industry and its future potential. IoSM evaluates the value proposition of core IoS applications for different customer types, providing a global market revenue and addressable market demand forecast for each application in the 2017-2027 period. Two case studies on commercial GEO satellite life extension provide insight into the operator perspective in service-or-replace trade-offs, assessing when and why IoS is a compelling option.
NSR  market-research  space  satellite  in-orbit-servicing 
june 2018 by pierredv
Non-GEO Constellations: Surviving the Disruption - Northern Sky Research - May 2018
"The main industry segments most affected by Non-GEO constellations are HTS Communications, IoT and Earth Observation (EO). ... The main industry segments most affected by Non-GEO constellations are HTS Communications, IoT and Earth Observation (EO). Each of these segments presents its own set of challenges and therefore different barriers to success. NSR’s Satellite Constellations: A Critical Assessment report investigates for the first time what guarantees success for LEO constellations within these three segments and the associated disruption on the industry."

"higher revenue requires a higher market share, which further requires low latency and higher coverage. That is the main value proposition of mega-constellations. However, the bigger the constellation, the higher the capital investment needed, and the higher the complexity of manufacturing with (because of their architecture) higher replenishment cost."

"The new Non-GEO constellations are expected to cause the biggest disruption in the HTS segment, conspicuously in Consumer Broadband and Backhaul/Enterprise verticals."

"these new LPWAN IoT constellations, despite offering the highest innovative disruption value, are not likely to have a significant impact on the overall satellite industry - financially, contributing just over 2% of overall NGEO revenues by 2027."

"A combination of low revenues and insufficient market capture will restrain at least one EO constellation from closing its business case."

"New IoT constellations such as Hiber, Astrocast and Kepler have a unique business case based on providing low cost, low power IoT solutions. This market is currently addressed by companies like Sigfox and LoRA on the terrestrial side and – to a limited extent – Iridium, Globalstar and Orbcomm on the satellite side."
NSR  market-research  satellite  space  business  LEO  NGSO  IoT  EO  EarthObservation 
may 2018 by pierredv
Satellite Constellations: A Critical Assessment - Northern Sky Research Apr 2018
From the email, "LEO-HTS Constellations Present Great Promise but Challenging Business Cases"

From graphic, studied following constellations:
LeoSat
Telesat
SES mPower (aka O3b)
OneWeb
SpaceX

"NSR predicts two, out of the five Non-GEO HTS constellations analyzed, do not have a viable business case and will not be sustainable, if launched. The remaining three will generate 12% of overall satcom market revenues over the next decade. Costly systems and replenishment cycles, matched against funding challenges, demand questions, and extraordinary technical and regulatory complexity, will separate contenders from pretenders in the high stakes constellations market."

"The associated CAPEX, including replenishment costs, is one the biggest hurdles to HTS, EO, and IoT constellation business plans"

"Vertical integration trends – such as in-house manufacturing and, in the case of SpaceX, incorporating that with its own launch services - aimed at lowering costs further actually add another layer of complexity that is greatly underestimated. Supply chain management is a momentous challenge, ..."

"There is a compelling level of optimism towards Non-GEO constellations, ... However, financial success for LEO constellations depends on their ability to bring pricing down to a level competitive with terrestrial networks and make the services affordable to target markets"
satellite  constellations  LEO  HTS  research  NSR  reports  consulting  market-analysis  market-research  business 
may 2018 by pierredv
Report: Public access small cells will drive $16.2B in revenue by 2016 - FierceBroadbandWireless
"According to new research from the Small Cell Forum in conjunction with Informa, about 56 percent of all cells today are femtocells, and that number will grow to 86 percent by 2016. Also by 2016, 90 percent of all cells will be small cells."
small-cells  forecast  market-research  FierceWireless 
february 2013 by pierredv

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