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pierredv : risk-assessment   67

US NIST Report - 'GPS is priceless, economic impact of loss minimal.' | RNTF
A critical take

"A report titled “Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System (GPS)” by RTI International was released last month. Sponsored by the National Institutes for Standards and Technology, it offered seemingly contradictory conclusions."
RNTF  GPS  NIST  risk-assessment 
5 weeks ago by pierredv
How to upgrade your thinking and avoid traps that make you look stupid | New Scientist
" IQ does correlate with many important outcomes in life, including academic success and job performance in many workplaces. But it is less useful at predicting “wise” decision-making and critical thinking, including the capacity to assess risk and uncertainty and weigh up conflicting evidence."


= "framing – our tendency to view certain statistics more favourably depending on the way they are phrased"

= "sunk cost fallacy: the tendency to pour more resources into a failing project to save sacrificing your initial investment, even though it will ultimately cost you a lot more than simply giving up"

= "gambler’s fallacy, the belief that chance events somehow even themselves out"

= Solomon's paradox: "find it easier to reason wisely about other people’s dilemmas than our own"

= "motivated reasoning, which means we apply our intelligence in a one-sided manner, to build arguments that justify and rationalise our own intuitive views and demolish the arguments of others"

= (perceptions of expertise can lead to) "earned dogmatism – the sense that you have earned the right to remain closed-minded about a subject, while rejecting arguments that disagree with those views"

"The Dunning-Kruger effect has now been replicated many times. Those studies have mostly examined basic skills such as numeracy. If you look at people with specialist expertise, however, a very different picture emerges."

Tips from the sidebar "Keeping your thinking on track"
= self-distancing
= consider the opposite of what you had just been thinking
NewScientist  IQ  intelligence  wisdom  fallacies  tips  bias  risk-assessment  cognitive-bias 
6 weeks ago by pierredv
Here Are the Odds That One of SpaceX’s Internet Satellites Will Hit Someone - IEEE Spectrum Dec 2018
"The chance that SpaceX’s planned Starlink satellite constellation will cause an injury or death is 45 percent every six years, according to an IEEE Spectrum analysis of figures submitted by the company to the U.S. Federal Communications Commission."

"When that fuel runs low, after around six years, the satellites will use the remainder to nudge themselves into the denser atmosphere below. Each satellite, just a little smaller in size than a Tesla Model 3, will then swiftly burn up. Except that some of it won’t. "

"When SpaceX plugged the numbers into NASA’s Debris Assessment Software, the package calculated that there was, at most, a 1 in 18,200 chance that an individual satellite in its LEO orbital shells would hurt or kill someone. VLEO satellites were generally slightly riskier, with up to a 1 in 17,400 chance. All figures are handily less than the 1 in 10,000 figure that NASA has adopted as a standard, and that U.S. and European space agencies require for space missions."
IEEE-Spectrum  SpaceX  orbital-debris  risk-assessment  satellite  constellations 
december 2018 by pierredv
Is the FDA Too Conservative or Too Aggressive?: A Bayesian Decision Analysis of Clinical Trial Design, Aug 2015, Vahid Montazerhodjat & Andrew W. Lo
Via Tom Hazlett, Nov 2017

NBER Working Paper No. 21499
Issued in August 2015
NBER Program(s):Health Care, Health Economics

Implicit in the drug-approval process is a trade-off between Type I and Type II error. We explore the application of Bayesian decision analysis (BDA) to minimize the expected cost of drug approval, where relative costs are calibrated using U.S. Burden of Disease Study 2010 data. The results for conventional fixed-sample randomized clinical-trial designs suggest that for terminal illnesses with no existing therapies such as pancreatic cancer, the standard threshold of 2.5% is substantially more conservative than the BDA-optimal threshold of 27.9%. However, for relatively less deadly conditions such as prostate cancer, 2.5% is more risk-tolerant or aggressive than the BDA-optimal threshold of 1.2%. We compute BDA-optimal sizes for 25 of the most lethal diseases and show how a BDA-informed approval process can incorporate all stakeholders’ views in a systematic, transparent, internally consistent, and repeatable manner.
NBER  medicine  risk-assessment  probability  statistics  decision-making  Bayesian  research  healthcare  cancer  BDA  FDA 
december 2018 by pierredv
Artificial Intelligence | Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
"GCRI studies the human process of developing and governing AI, using risk analysis, social science, and the extensive knowledge we have gained from the study of other risks."

Provides list of papers
GCRI  risk-assessment  AI 
november 2018 by pierredv
South Florida’s Hurricane Building Code is Strong—And North Florida’s Could Be Stronger by Bob Henson | Category 6 | Weather Underground
"Figure 1 (below) shows the 3-second wind gusts used in Florida since 2010 to set the minimum building code that applies to most homes and other structures apart from hospitals and other health care facilities. These values were calculated based on extensive computer modeling and observations, drawing in part on the state’s multiple hurricane landfalls in 2004. They’re designed to represent the highest gusts one would expect to recur at a given point in a typical 700-year period."

Can apply to spectrum statistics: uses combination of "extensive computer modeling and observation"

From Sun Sentinel quote: '' Insurance Journal added: “The shift toward less rigorous codes is driven by several factors, experts say: Rising anti-regulatory sentiment among state officials, and the desire to avoid anything that might hurt home sales and the tax revenue that goes with them. And fierce lobbying from home builders.” ''
Wunderground  risk-assessment  weather  building-codes  interference  statistics 
october 2018 by pierredv
Drones and Frequencies to Fly on - ECC Newsletter August 2018
" CEPT held a Workshop on ‘spectrum for drones – UAS’ in sunny Copenhagen on 29-30 May 2018. The focus of the workshop was on drones which fly in circumstances where they do not need communications with air traffic control."

"The workshop heard from the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), which has new draft regulations before the EU Commission. The approach includes three categories of operations (Open, Specific and Certified) in an operation centric approach."

"These acts are expected to be published by the end of 2018 or in early 2019. They will be complemented by related standardisation initiatives."

"When it comes to UAS, frequencies are used in a number of ways: for command and control (CC) and identification, as well as for payload transmissions (e.g. on-board cameras sending information to the ground). Communications solutions are also needed for drones-to-drones, drones-to-infrastructure and for radar sensors and optical sensors on board the drones. In addition, they are needed for distribution of positioning information in order to avoid collisions, geo-awareness about fly zone restrictions such as around airports, sensitive facilities and locations, and drones traffic management."

"In the specific category, the basic principle is that a UAS operation, before being conducted, must be approved on the basis of a risk assessment."

"It was agreed at the workshop that, in the future, spectrum harmonisation may indeed be needed in areas of e-identification, geo-awareness and anti-collision. The various ideas for the technical solutions have, however, not converged in standardisation, while the use of several technologies may even provide a potentially safer approach using data fusion. Hence, the precise impact and needs for new frequency opportunities for drones/UAS is not yet clear."

"In February 2018, the ECC published ECC Report 268 on the technical and regulatory aspects and the needs for spectrum regulation when it comes to drones."
ECC  UAS  drones  spectrum  CEPT  workshop  risk-assessment 
september 2018 by pierredv
Estimating the Likelihood of Wireless Coexistence Using Logistic Regression: Emphasis on Medical Devices - IEEE Journals & Magazine
Mohamad Omar Al Kalaa ; Seth J. Seidman ; Hazem H. Refai
Medical device manufacturers incorporate wireless technology in their designs to offer convenience and agility to both patients and caregivers. However, the use of unlicensed radio spectrum bands by both medical devices and other equipment raises concerns about wireless coexistence. Work by the accredited standards committee C63 of the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) to provide the community with a consensus standard for coexistence evaluation resulted in the publication of the ANSI C63.27 standard, which was later recognized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Estimating the likelihood of wireless coexistence of a system under test (SUT) in a given environment is central to the evaluation and reporting of wireless coexistence, as made clear in the C63.27 standard. However, no method to perform this estimation is provided. In this paper, we propose the use of logistic regression (LR) to estimate the likelihood of wireless coexistence of a medical device in its intended environment. Radiated open environment coexistence testing was used to realize a test scenario in which the interfering network was IEEE 802.11n Wi-Fi and the SUT was ZigBee; exemplary wireless technologies for interfering network and medical device, respectively. LR model fitting was then performed to derive a model that describes the performance of SUT under a range of wireless coexistence phenomena. Finally, results were incorporated with the outcome of a spectrum survey using Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the SUT likelihood of wireless coexistence in a hospital environment.
Wireless  coexistence  Interference  probability  risk-assessment  medicine  devices 
june 2018 by pierredv
Lightfoot calls for enlightened approach to risk management at NASA - April 2018
"In his last major speech as NASA’s acting administrator before retiring, Robert Lightfoot said he believes the space agency needs to do a better job assessing risks and making decisions in order to carry out its exploration plans"

"One problem, he said, is that missions are often sold on their benefits, but once under development, the focus shifts to their risks."

He also said that decisions are slowed down because information on various options and their risks isn’t brought fast enough to key officials. “The elevation of risk to senior leadership doesn’t happen fast enough,” he said. “That processes crushes decision velocity.”
NASA  space  risk-assessment  risk-management 
april 2018 by pierredv
Report: “Taking the Pulse of Hacking: A Risk Basis for Security Research” | Center for Democracy & Technology
Via Blake Reid

"Over the past three decades, the community that investigates vulnerabilities in computers and networks – the computer and information security research community – has grown. Beginning as a hobby of early computer scientists such as Cliff Stoll, the security research community has become a well-defined industry element that seeks to help defend information systems and networks, and to discover and repair new weaknesses in systems that billions use everyday.

We sought to study the interaction between the law, technology, and this community. Specifically, since security researchers tend to push into grey areas where the law is unclear, an understanding of the law’s “chilling effects” (inhibition or discouragement) on security research has been a major concern of those who work in and with information security."
CDT  risk-assessment  cybersecurity  hacking  law 
april 2018 by pierredv
UK Government responds to GNSS dependence - call for action - Innovate UK - Mar 2018
"There has been much hype in the GNSS community around a recent report from the Government’s Office for Science (GO-Science) that investigated the dependencies of the UK’s critical services to satellite navigation technology, specifically Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), such as the American GPS system. The report called for some action and with typical British understatement and quiet resolve, things are happening."

"This article outlines the report, the key findings and the recommendations but also addresses what happens next, which is ultimately the call to arms of the report – take action."

"The key point from this chapter is no single mitigation technology can protect GNSS in all applications. A layered approach, application by application is required to deliver a resilient or robust system. "

"The recommendations do have a common theme; that our GNSS awareness is out of step with our dependence to GNSS and that our knowledge of the vulnerabilities and weaknesses of GNSS should be better. . . . the recommendations can be grouped into some simple sub-sets; improving awareness, improving the legal mechanisms and improving our technical expertise."
UK  GPS  GNSS  risk-assessment  mitigation  PNT 
april 2018 by pierredv
Risk Analysis Finds Nuclear Deterrence Wanting - IEEE Spectrum Apr 2008
"Modern nuclear reactors are designed to have a rate of failure, involving the release of significant radiation, of just 1 in 1 million per year per reactor. But what about that other potential source of lethal radiation—nuclear war? Martin E. Hellman, emeritus professor of electrical engineering at Stanford University and IEEE Fellow, applied engineering risk-analysis methods to the question of what the failure rate is for the strategy of nuclear deterrence. His conclusion? The failure rate of nuclear deterrence is a lot higher than you might think."

"The result is a range from 2 chances in 10 000 per year to 5 chances in 1000 per year for just this one type of trigger mechanism. The values are valid only for the Cold War years, writes Hellman. "
risk-assessment  warfare 
february 2018 by pierredv
[pdf] Turksat 2013 = Fighting with satellite interference
Useful inventory of modes:

= cross polarization

= human error ("Uplink personnel may enter incorrect parameters such as center frequency or symbol rate resulting in interference to other carriers")

= equipment error ("such as malfunctioning of Uplink Power Control systems could
cause the carrier to increase its power level dramatically impacting other carriers")

= adjacent satellite - antenna alignment error ("Uplink systems trying to uplink to a close by satellite may cause interference if the antenna is not aligned correctly to the intended satellite")
satellite  interference  risk-assessment  * 
february 2018 by pierredv
[pdf] Satellite vulnerability to space debris risk - Denis Bensoussan, World Space Risk Forum 2012
Average current risk of collision at GEO is 1 every 135 years

LEO: Probability that any given satellite at 800-900km will be hit by debris larger than 1 cm approaching 3% over 5 to 10 year lifetime (est. NASA) (Failure risk due to debris impact remains a substantially lower
probability than risks of launcher or satellite mechanical failure)
satellite  space  space-debris  risk-assessment  GEO  LEO  insurance 
january 2018 by pierredv
[pdf] Coexistence of new services in the 700 MHz band with digital terrestrial television (May 9, 2017)
Via Cyprien De Cosson

Explicitly frame analysis in terms of risk, and risk mitigation.

Exec Summary

1.6 Our projections based on data from the current 800 MHz mitigation scheme indicate that there will be between 25,000 and 36,000 confirmed interference cases by the end of 800 MHz network roll-out. This is less than 0.2% of DTT households in the UK. We expect that the number of 700 MHz interference cases will be broadly similar.

1.9 Households with television receivers that perform poorly1 and that are in an area of relatively high handset activity might experience a single transient picture interruption on average around once every 100 hours of viewing standard definition TV. For high definition (HD), the equivalent figure would be just one interruption in 10,000 hours of viewing.
Ofcom  DTV  700MHz  risk-assessment  DTT  television 
january 2018 by pierredv
Accelerating Satellite Data Collection with Regulatory Reform
via Brandt Pasco

"we partnered with DigitalGlobe (DG) and NVIDIA to release labeled, very high resolution satellite imagery on Amazon Web Services as part of SpaceNetTM in order to accelerate this exploration. Other organizations such Planet, Draper, Dstl, IEEE and IARPA have all launched competitions focusing on the analysis of satellite imagery."

" it is worth taking a moment to examine an important factor influencing how startups and incumbents are able to collect and sell satellite data: regulation"

"Venture capital funding and new company starts are at an all-time high (see CB Insights report) and incumbent aerospace firms have made a series of new product announcements (e.g. DG’s Legion story). On the other hand, there has been a growing list of public and private sector stakeholders bemoaning the current state of the U.S.’s outdated remote sensing regulatory framework (e.g., U.S. Rep. Babin, U.S. Rep. Kilmer, Planet, and DG)."

"There are three major concerns with the current process: (1) timeliness of review; (2) predictability; and (3) transparency."

"... the 1992 Land Remote Sensing Policy Act was designed for companies developing a limited number of large satellites. The development timeline for these systems was usually long and required extensive financing. As one might expect, this licensing process has been unable to keep pace with the new, more rapid development and deployment schedules posed by space startups and incumbents with new product lines."

"... NOAA CRSRA is supposed to issue a licensing decision no later than 120 days after submission. Some have described this timeline as “almost an impossible feat” for a variety of reasons ranging from staffing issues to the “stop clock” requirement ..."

"Second, industry’s frustration with licensing delays has been further exacerbated by the lack of predictability of those timelines"

"Third and finally, industry stakeholders have repeatedly expressed their concern with the lack of transparency regarding licensing questions or changes to the existing license conditions. "

FCC: companies "have also expressed some frustration with the increasingly frequent delays. There are two primary causes for these delays: (1) spectrum interference claims and (2) orbital interference claims."

"Despite the legitimate concerns regarding access to spectrum and interference and momentary service disruptions, many interference claims lack detailed analyses quantifying the level of projected risk especially from a low earth orbit (LEO) constellation"

"Proposed policy solutions to the existing regulatory framework remain in their formative stages. Stakeholder opinion ranges from advocating for adjustments to the existing system to a “fundamental rethinking” of the licensing process."

= auto-approval determinations
= review transparency
= adherence to timeline
= government coordination
Medium  In-Q-Tel  satellite  EO  earth-observation  regulation  remote-sensing  risk-assessment  NOAA  FCC  FAA 
january 2018 by pierredv
Analyzing Risk: Principles, Concepts, and Applications | Executive and Continuing Professional Education | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Program Overview
A Risk Analysis Course

Risk analysis is a scientific tool designed to help us determine the existence and extent of threats to human health, provide information about how best to manage these risks, and improve our ability to communicate with the public about the proper response to these hazards.

This continuing education course explores the principles of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication, ensuring you can identify, explain, and make decisions about risks to public health. You will learn how risk analysis is done, how it is interpreted, and how it influences regulatory decision-making. This program will provide you with the knowledge and skills to analyze how environmental hazards impact human health.

This program uses case studies, lectures, and small-group work to explore such topics as hazard identification, toxicology and epidemiology in risk analysis, risk perception, risk communication, life-cycle assessment, and the interplay of risk management and the law. You will gain the skills needed to:

* Perform a broader, nuanced risk assessment
* Improve the effectiveness of current risk assessment practices
* Apply these concepts to diverse risk analysis and management issues

During this executive education program, you will explore the legal and policy framework which will inform the direction of risk analysis in upcoming years, gain the skills needed to perform a quantitative risk assessment, discuss key factors influencing the effectiveness of risk assessment and management, and apply these concepts in local, state, federal, or international settings. After completing the course, you will be able to determine whether hazards pose an unacceptable risk to public health, communicate effectively about health risks, and utilize risk analysis to improve decision-making.
Harvard  course  risk  risk-assessment  education  health  public-health 
january 2018 by pierredv
What if…? How reimagining history could help insurers better analyse risk - Lloyd's - The world’s specialist insurance market. Also known as Lloyd's of London; is a market where members join together as syndicates to insure risks.
"Lloyd’s, together with modelling company RMS, have published a new report – entitled Counterfactual Disaster Risk Analysis: Reimagining history – setting out how a type of lateral thinking, called counterfactual, can be applied to complement how insurers analyse risk. The report discusses how downward counterfactual analysis – in other words considering how historical near misses might have become major disasters – can be carried out in practice. It acts as a starting point for future research into counterfactual events and their characteristics. "

[Woo, Catastrophist at RMS, explained]: “Downward counterfactual risk analysis helps address the bias that can be inherent in some models that are based on the same historical data sets. By expanding the data available based on what could have happened, these models can be built with less reliance on single-source data, which might improve their accuracy. It also provides a useful tool for regulators to stress-test catastrophe risk models.”
Lloyds  insurance  risk-assessment  risk-management 
december 2017 by pierredv
Aerospace Cybersecurity Challenges Need To Be Identified, Addressed | Connected Aerospace content from Aviation Week
via Dale Hatfield

"The situation illustrates the level of reliance that integral parts of the aviation ecosystem are placing on network connectivity, and the importance of ensuring those networks are both reliable and secure as the industry’s digitalization gains momentum."

"Aviation’s emphasis on systems safety through risk identification and mitigation is well-established."

Pete Cooper, Atlantic Council senior fellow: “Previously, aviation systems were relatively secure due to the bespoke nature of their design, isolation from other systems, and little in the way of communication protocols.”

"Among the [Atlantic Council] study’s key takeaways: Aviation’s march toward an increasingly digital future is opening it up to significant cybersecurity threats, and the industry must move purposefully and quickly to ensure that systemic challenges do not increase an already formidable risk."

"But the consensus among cybersecurity experts and aviation IT specialists is that, while secure systems are the goal, breaches are inevitable. That places the onus on recovery."
AviationWeek  aviation  cybersecurity  risk-assessment  risk-management  AtlanticCouncil 
november 2017 by pierredv
Sagan, S.D.: The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons (Paperback) | Princeton University Press
Via Steven Bellovin

"Environmental tragedies such as Chernobyl and the Exxon Valdez remind us that catastrophic accidents are always possible in a world full of hazardous technologies. Yet, the apparently excellent safety record with nuclear weapons has led scholars, policy-makers, and the public alike to believe that nuclear arsenals can serve as a secure deterrent for the foreseeable future. In this provocative book, Scott Sagan challenges such optimism. Sagan's research into formerly classified archives penetrates the veil of safety that has surrounded U.S. nuclear weapons and reveals a hidden history of frightening "close calls" to disaster."
books  risk-assessment  nuclear  safety 
october 2017 by pierredv
Towards an Integrated Assessment of Global Catastrophic Risk by Seth D. Baum, Anthony M. Barrett :: SSRN
Integrated assessment is an analysis of a topic that integrates multiple lines of research. Integrated assessments are thus inherently interdisciplinary. They are generally oriented toward practical problems, often in the context of public policy, and frequently concern topics in science and technology. This paper presents a concept for and some initial work towards an integrated assessment of global catastrophic risk (GCR). Generally speaking, GCR is the risk of significant harm to global human civilization. More precise definitions are provided below. Some GCRs include nuclear war, climate change, and pandemic disease outbreaks. Integrated assessment of GCR puts all these risks into one study in order to address overarching questions about the risk and the opportunities to reduce it. The specific concept for integrated assessment presented here has been developed over several years by the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (GCRI). GCRI is an independent, nonprofit think tank founded in 2011 by Seth Baum and Tony Barrett (i.e., the authors). The integrated assessment structures much of GCRI’s thinking and activity, and likewise offers a framework for general study and work on the GCR topic.
risk-assessment  risk-management  GCR  GlobalCatastrophicRisk  SSRN 
october 2017 by pierredv
[pdf] Over-flight Risk Considerations for the Launch of an ELV Rocket to an ISS Inclination
Presented by Steven Millard, AIAA Atmospheric and Space Environments Conference, 2 - 5 August 2010, Toronto, Ontario Canada

"Congress granted the FAA the authority to license commercial launch and reentry operations to ensure protection of public, property, the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States and to encourage, facilitate, and promote U.S. Commercial Space Transportation. To meet this responsibility, the FAA performs safety evaluations of license applications to conduct commercial launches from the United States or outside the United States by a U.S. citizen or an entity organized under the laws of the United States. This paper discusses an example FAA analysis of the risk to the public resulting from the launch of a space vehicle to the International Space Station from a launch site at the Eastern Range, headquartered at Cape Canaveral, Florida, and the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport, located in Wallops, Virginia. This work is presented to address some of the challenges launch operators competing for the Commercial Orbital Transportations Services (COTS) and the FAA face in their efforts to promote commercial space activities while ensuring the launch operator meets their regulatory obligations and responsibility for protecting the public. "
FAA  safety  launch  risk-assessment  space 
september 2017 by pierredv
Upfront | New Scientist, issue 3122, Apr 2017, page down for the story
"Satellites swarms could increase space junk risk by 50 per cent
SWARMS of cheap CubeSats set to deliver internet access to every corner of the globe could cause a 50 per cent rise in catastrophic collisions with other satellites, unleashing hazardous space junk."

"Hugh Lewis at the University of Southampton, UK, and his colleagues used a supercomputer to simulate 200 years of possible orbits for 300 different scenarios.

The results, presented this week at a European Space Agency conference on space debris in Darmstadt, Germany, suggest that these megaconstellations boost the risk of a catastrophic collision – in which a satellite is destroyed – by 50 per cent."
NewScientist  satellite  space-junk  space-debris  space  risk-assessment 
july 2017 by pierredv
Double trouble: GNSS over-reliance and its costs : GPS World, June 2017
This month’s column deals with two troublesome topics: the U.S. government’s over-reliance on GPS, and the potential costs of GPS disruption toward which such a policy may be leading us.
GPSWorld  GPS  GNSS  risk-assessment  resilience 
july 2017 by pierredv
The economic impact on the UK of a disruption to GNSS - GOV.UK, June 2017
This report researches and assesses the impact of a 5-day loss of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems on the UK economy
UK  GPS  risk-assessment  GNSS 
july 2017 by pierredv
DHS preps Cyber Incident Data Repository -- GCN
"To protect their organizations from threats, cybersecurity professionals must understand both current and historical cyber risk conditions so they can better identify cyber risk trends.  Providing that insight is the goal of the Department of Homeland Security’s Cyber Incident Data Repository (CIDAR) pilot, which aims to identify trends, mitigate threats and calculate risks for enterprise risk managers and cybersecurity insurance companies."

"The idea was that insurance would encourage better practices by providing lower premiums to “entities that demonstrate to insurers that they have certain level of cybersecurity.” Potential cybersecurity insurers, however, didn’t have actuarial data to be able to make those assessments."
DHS  cybersecurity  risk-assessment  insurance  risk-management 
april 2017 by pierredv
Proposal to Amend EU Comitology Rules: Stretching the Limits of the Precautionary Principle | Global Policy Watch
"The European Commission has presented a proposal to amend the EU’s examination comitology procedure with the aim of forcing Member States to vote and take responsibility in the adoption of controversial decisions mostly affecting health and the environment, such as pesticides, GMOs, and chemicals.  If adopted, the proposed amendments are likely to result in an even stronger precautionary approach and the adoption of fewer approvals of politically sensitive products in the EU.  The amendments would also mean that companies who seek to have such products approved will need to put more efforts into influencing Member States and their national constituencies.  They are also likely to result in increased litigation before the EU Courts."

"In practice, the examination procedure results in a no opinion situation that forces the Commission to decide on its own in around less than 2% of all the proposals that the Commission presents."

"Given the domestic political sensitivity of approvals on pesticides, GMOs and similar decisions, Member States will often prefer not to participate in the adoption of what is ultimately a political decision even if the Commission’s proposal is supported by the EU’s scientific bodies."

"In effect, the proposed amendments would emphasize the application of the precautionary principle in the EU and, are likely to discredit it in the long run."
Covington  EU  precaution  risk-assessment  EC  precautionary-principle 
february 2017 by pierredv
Future-Proofing Justice: Building a Research Agenda to Address the Effects of Technological Change on the Protection of Constitutional Rights | RAND
"Research Question: What are the research and other needs that either address concerns or take advantage of opportunities related to emerging technologies and the protection of individuals' constitutional rights in the criminal justice system?"

"Via a Delphi-based prioritization of the results, the panel crafted a research agenda — including best practice and training development, evaluation, and fundamental research efforts — to provide the criminal justice community with the knowledge and capabilities needed to address these important and complex technological questions going forward."

"The panel's research agenda prioritized needs that fell into three categories: best practice and training development, addressing such issues as criminal justice data quality and its implications for individuals' rights; evaluation work to better understand how analytic tools (such as risk assessment instruments) perform; and fundamental research on such topics as how the exploding volume of electronic data could affect the protection of rights."

"Among the issues raised by the panel, the need to educate participants in the criminal justice system was most prominent."
RAND  justice  technology  constitutional-rights  law  risk-assessment 
february 2017 by pierredv
Two Cybersecurity Standards Come Together to Help Organizations Quantify and Prioritize Risk | Business Wire
Via Phil Weiser, Aug 2016

"The FAIR Institute and NIST present how the NIST Cybersecurity Framework and the FAIR risk model can be leveraged to measure the ROI of cybersecurity and prioritize risk mitigations."

"Factor Analysis of Information Risk (FAIR) - the international standard value-at-risk model for quantifying cybersecurity risk from The Open Group - provides analytical support for organizations using NIST CSF by helping them measure and prioritize their control improvements in financial terms."
cybersecurity  risk  NIST  risk-assessment 
october 2016 by pierredv
FTC Reasserts Data Security Authority in LabMD Ruling | Bloomberg BNA
"The Federal Trade Commission July 29 reasserted its authority to take data security enforcement action against companies as it reinstated an action against medical testing company LabMD Inc., concluding that the FTC needn't show particularized harm to consumers (In re LabMD, Inc., F.T.C., No. 9357, 7/29/16)."
"The commission, in an opinion written by FTC Chairwoman Edith Ramirez, also disagreed with the ALJ's ruling that “likely to cause” necessarily means that injury was “probable.” Instead, it concluded that “a practice may be unfair if the magnitude of the potential injury is large, even if the likelihood of the injury occurring is low.”"
BloombergBNA  FTC  ALJ  cybersecurity  risk-assessment 
august 2016 by pierredv
Disruptive Robocalling - Global Guerrillas
"In my scenario, robocalling was used to shut down polling places to skew election results and plunge the US into chaos:

Robocalls pour in to police departments and polling places in heavily (Rep or Dem) polling locations with bomb/terrorist threats. Widespread poll closures occur. Calls continue until late."
hacking  jamming  spoofing  POTS  robocalling  risk-assessment 
july 2016 by pierredv
Are Risk Assessment And The Precautionary Principle Equivalent? | Competitive Enterprise Institute June 2002
"The question I’ve been posed is whether the precautionary principle is equivalent to risk assessment. My answer is: No. To explain that answer, I’m going argue that risk assessment plays a central role in the imperative to maximize benefits, while the precautionary principle violates it. To do that, I’ll borrow from classical risk analysis, quality management and ethics."
risk-assessment  precautionary-principle 
may 2016 by pierredv
Mortality Risk | III
The chart below shows the likelihood, or odds, of dying as a result of a specific type of accident.
risk  risk-assessment  mortality  death 
may 2016 by pierredv
The "Zero-Probability Fallacy" Fallacy, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty
"If you're willing to drive your kids to the mall, and car travel is forty times more lethal per minute at unsupervised mall loitering, then why will you allow the former but not the latter?"
probability  risk-assessment  safety  kids 
may 2016 by pierredv
Global Cyber Alliance: ‘A Coalition of the Angry’
Phil Reitinger interview "not threat but risk" Will need lots of automation
cybersecurity  risk-assessment  threat  vulnerability 
march 2016 by pierredv
Google, Microsoft wage war of words with GE Healthcare, others over white space rules - FierceWirelessTech
"GE Healthcare and WMTS say that given the nature of WMTS and the potential catastrophic consequences of even a single case of harmful interference on patient safety, the commission should deny Microsoft's requests"
Google  Microsoft  GEHealthcare  WMTS  whitespaces  risk-assessment 
march 2016 by pierredv
FAA Reauthorization Bill Still Leaves Much To Be Desired For Commercial Drone Operators | TechCrunch Feb 2016
"The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration is due for reauthorization and the Transportation & Infrastructure Committee introduced the first draft of the FAA bill today. While the efforts to reform the air traffic control system will likely take center stage in the discussion around the bill, it also includes a number of items around the commercial use of drones." "For the most part, the new bill rehashes the FAA’s language around commercial drones. What’s new, though, is that the bill asks the FAA to take a risk-based approach to permitting. The idea here is to look at, among other things, location, the nature of the mission, known failure modes and both the technology’s and the operator’s safety record."
FAA  drones  risk  risk-assessment 
february 2016 by pierredv
CDRH Reports > FDASIA Health IT Report
"Federal law passed by U.S. Congress in 2012 requires that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), in consultation with the Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology (ONC) and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) develop and post on their respective web sites "a report that contains a proposed strategy and recommendations on an appropriate, risk-based regulatory framework pertaining to health information technology, including mobile medical applications, that promotes innovation, protects patient safety, and avoids regulatory duplication." This report fulfills that requirement."
FDA  FCC  risk-assessment  heath-IT 
july 2015 by pierredv
IEC 80001: An Introduction (PDF)
Presented at 19th Annual NCBA Conference September 13, 2012 by Sherman Eagles Partner, SoftwareCPR Principal, 80001 Experts, LLC
risk  risk-assessment  risk-management  IEC-80001  medical-devices  health 
july 2015 by pierredv
FDA-iRISK - Home
"FDA-iRISK is a web-based system designed to analyze data concerning microbial and chemical hazards in food and return an estimate of the resulting health burden on a population level."
FDA  risk-assessment  probabilistic-risk-assessment  food-safety 
may 2015 by pierredv
Completed and Ongoing Risk Assessment Projects at CFSAN -- FDA
Lists: Risk Assessments Risk Profiles Collaborations Research and Data Collections Decision-Analysis Tools Related Initiatives
FDA  risk-assessment 
april 2015 by pierredv
Ozone hole: How we are misled in the fight to cut smog - opinion - 02 February 2015 - New Scientist
"Republicans now control both houses of Congress and are all for throttling President Barack Obama's plans to lower the federal limit on ozone smog, announced by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) right after the elections. They say it is unachievable, except at vast cost. This might surprise Europeans, who have been living with a tougher limit for some time. However, an analysis for New Scientist suggests that Europe's limits are less stringent than they appear." - "In the US, being in breach of the regulations means exceeding the limit on four or more days in a year, averaged over three years. So 11 breaches in any three-year period is fine, but 12 is not. In Europe, the limit can be exceeded up to 25 days a year, again averaged over three years. So up to 75 bad-air days are allowed in that time. That's a lot, but even so large parts of southern Europe failed that test for the period 2011 to 2013, because of a spike during the hot summer of 2013."
NewScientist  pollution  politics  risk-assessment  measurement 
april 2015 by pierredv
Total safety an illusion for Japan's nuclear restart - opinion - 03 December 2014 - New Scientist
"Two key questions come to the fore in such an earthquake-prone region: which hazards can nuclear plants withstand, and can society as a whole live with the risks posed by hazards that plants cannot withstand? The latter is an inherently political question." "Both pro- and anti-nuclear advocates have argued that nuclear plants should be restarted if and only if they can withstand a "worst-case" scenario – albeit with each side trying to game the definition of the worst case. This may sound sensible, but it is logically flawed. When it comes to natural hazards there is no "worst case"."
NewScientist  risk-assessment  opinion  pollution  politics  worst-case  nuclear 
april 2015 by pierredv
Summary of Executive Order 12866 - Regulatory Planning and Review | Laws & Regulations | US EPA
Executive Order (E.O.) 12866 - Regulatory Planning and Review - was issued by President William J. Clinton in 1993. It provides that significant regulatory actions be submitted for review to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) in the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). E.O. 13563 – Improving Regulation and Regulatory Review – was issued by President Barack H. Obama in 2011 (76 FR 3821; January 21, 2011). It reaffirms and amplifies the principles embodied in E.O. 12866 by encouraging agencies to coordinate their regulatory activities, and to consider regulatory approaches that reduce the burden of regulation while maintaining flexibility and freedom of choice for the public.
risk-assessment  regulation  executive-order  risk 
april 2015 by pierredv
How ‘hazards’ drive broadband economics
The broadband supply has four key properties: Connectivity; Continuity; Capacity; Stationarity - "These four factors in turn determine the performance hazards of the application. For instance, what are the chances that a streaming video application will exhaust its buffer and show the ‘circle of death’? This concept of hazards is a central and critical idea. It is borrowed from the study of safety-critical systems (like air traffic control) and the analysis of their failure modes. A performance hazard can be latent, i.e. it could happen, but not in the current circumstances. This is a bit like being the carrier of a gene sequence that pre-disposes you to a disease that will only afflict you in later life. Alternatively, the hazard could bearmed, and could happen in the current circumstances. Armed hazards have a certain probability of maturing which results in an impact that drives business risk."
Martin-Geddes  risk-assessment  risk-management  hazards 
april 2015 by pierredv
FDA Uses Web Tool to Better the Odds for Food Safety | FDA Voice
"Launched in October 2012, FDA-iRISK uses mathematical logic and Monte Carlo simulation (a computer program named for the gambling mecca) to integrate data and generate results that compare and rank risks of the contamination of foods by various hazards. Unlike a traditional risk assessment of a single food and a single contaminant, FDA-iRISK allows users to compare multiple hazards – microbial or chemical – in multiple foods."
FDA  food  health  food-safety  risk  risk-assessment  FDA-iRISK 
march 2015 by pierredv
Wiley: Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide, 3rd Edition - David Vose
Ch 1 pdf: -- "This book concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modeling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modeling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems."
David-Vose  Wiley  risk-assessment  risk  textbooks 
february 2015 by pierredv
USN SSRA Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Document (WORD Format)
DoD Instruction 4650.01 “Policy and Procedures for Management and Use of the Electromagnetic Spectrum” issued by ASD (NII) on January 9, 2009, mandates that for all spectrum-dependent (S-D) systems, DoD Components shall determine if there will be sufficient spectrum to support operation of the system during its life cycle. In order to affect design and procurement decisions, DoD Components shall: Identify spectrum-related risks as early as possible via Spectrum Supportability Risk Assessments (SSRA). Review these assessments at acquisition milestones. Manage the risks throughout the system’s lifecycle. These FAQs will serve as the vehicle to address the TriSysCom (NAVSEA, SPAWAR,NAVAIR) questions that have accumulated with the SSRA submittal process and SSRA content. They are to be used in conjunction with the DoD “Joint Services Guide for Development of a Spectrum Supportability Risk Assessment (SSRA)”.
USN  SSRA  DoD  risk-assessment  spectrum 
february 2015 by pierredv
Spectrum Supportability Risk Assessment (SSRA)
"DoDI 4650.01 requires system developers of spectrum dependent (S-D) systems and equipment to identify and mitigate regulatory, technical, and operational spectrum supportability (SS) and electromagnetic environmental effects (E3) risks during the development process. The instruction also requires that the resulting spectrum supportability risk assessment (SSRA) be updated to provide increasing levels of detail as the item's design matures. The SSRA constitutes the basis for milestone decision authority determinations of spectrum supportability and provides increasing levels of detail regarding a system’s regulatory, technical, and operational requirements in Initial, Detailed, and Updated SSRAs."
DoD  spectrum  risk-assessment 
february 2015 by pierredv
Announcement from Electromagnetics and Spectrum Engineering Group | LinkedIn
"I invite you to join the new LinkedIn Group Spectrum Supportability Risk Assessments! SSRAs are a relatively new US DoD requirement to identify and assess an systems's potential to affect its required performance or the performance of other systems within the operational EME. This assessment must be accomplished with due consideration given to regulatory, technical, and operational spectrum and E3 issues and assigned risks. This new group will provide a forum for discussions and questions related to the development, submittal and review of SSRAs. Try or search in the groups for Spectrum Supportability!"
spectrum  risk-assessment  risk 
february 2015 by pierredv
To Hit the Road, Driverless Cars Must Be Safe, Not Perfect | RAND
"Once driverless cars are safer than the average human driver, we should let them hit the road. Indeed, waiting for autonomous vehicles to be perfect would be its own safety concern because it would mean the needless perpetuation of the risks posed by human drivers. In the United States alone, some 30,000 people are killed and more than 2 million injured in crashes every year (PDF), and the vast majority (PDF) of them are caused by human error."
RAND  risk-assessment  travel  driving 
january 2015 by pierredv
Human Health Risk Assessment | Risk Assessment Portal | US EPA
Human health risk assessment includes 4 basic steps: Step 1 - Hazard Identification Step 2 - Dose-Response Assessment Step 3 - Exposure Assessment Step 4 - Risk Characterization
risk  EPA  risk-assessment  health 
june 2013 by pierredv

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