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pierredv : worst-case   5

Testing the scenario hypothesis: An experimental comparison of scenarios and forecasts for decision support in a complex decision environment
Abstract
Decision support tools are known to influence and facilitate decisionmaking through the thoughtful construction of the decision environment. However, little research has empirically evaluated the effects of using scenarios and forecasts. In this research, we asked participants to recommend a fisheries management strategy that achieved multiple objectives in the face of significant uncertainty. A decision support tool with one of two conditions—Scenario or Forecast—encouraged participants to explore a large set of diversified decision options. We found that participants in the two conditions explored the options similarly, but chose differently. Participants in the Scenario Condition chose the strategies that performed well over the full range of uncertainties (robust strategies) significantly more frequently than did those in the Forecast Condition. This difference seems largely to be because participants in the Scenario Condition paid increased attention to worst-case futures. The results offer lessons for designing decision support tools.
worst-case  decision-making  decision-support  scenarios  forecasting  RAND 
june 2017 by pierredv
T-Mobile accuses cable companies of using LTE-U tests that rely on extremes, not reality - FierceWirelessTech
"T-Mobile US (NYSE:TMUS) took a stab at its cable rivals in a recent FCC filing, saying that claims by LTE-U opponents that the technology will adversely impact Wi-Fi operations are based on testing "with parameters set at extremes that do not represent realistic deployments or do not reflect actual LTE-U specifications.""
FierceWireless  t-Mobile  NCTA  LTE-U  worst-case 
august 2015 by pierredv
Total safety an illusion for Japan's nuclear restart - opinion - 03 December 2014 - New Scientist
"Two key questions come to the fore in such an earthquake-prone region: which hazards can nuclear plants withstand, and can society as a whole live with the risks posed by hazards that plants cannot withstand? The latter is an inherently political question." "Both pro- and anti-nuclear advocates have argued that nuclear plants should be restarted if and only if they can withstand a "worst-case" scenario – albeit with each side trying to game the definition of the worst case. This may sound sensible, but it is logically flawed. When it comes to natural hazards there is no "worst case"."
NewScientist  risk-assessment  opinion  pollution  politics  worst-case  nuclear 
april 2015 by pierredv
FCC supports more unlicensed use of TV, 600 MHz bands - FierceWireless Oct 2014
"In proposing changes to its Part 15 rules, the FCC said it wants to allow for more robust unlicensed service and efficient spectral use. The proposed changes would extend opportunities for "innovative" unlicensed use in the 600 MHz guard bands, Channel 37 and remaining TV bands while preventing harmful interference to licensed services, according to FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler." "[Pai] said the FCC's own analysis shows that operating white space devices under the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking's (NPRM) proposed configurations could, in the worst-case scenarios, cause harmful interference to wireless devices whenever they're within even 7 meters of each other."
FCC  TVWS  guardbands  worst-case 
october 2014 by pierredv

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