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robertogreco : estimation   4

Commuting : The Frontal Cortex
"David Brooks, summarizing the current state of happiness research: "The daily activity most injurious to happiness is commuting. According to one study, being married produces a psychic gain equivalent to more than $100,000 a year." In other words, the best way to make yourself happy is to have a short commute and get married. I'm afraid science can't tell us very much about marriage so let's talk about commuting. A few years ago, the Swiss economists Bruno Frey and Alois Stutzer announced the discovery of a new human foible, which they called "the commuters paradox". They found that, when people are choosing where to live, they consistently underestimate the pain of a long commute. This leads people to mistakenly believe that the big house in the exurbs will make them happier, even though it might force them to drive an additional hour to work."
commuting  happiness  davidbrooks  housing  urbanplanning  suburbia  marriage  neuroscience  jonahlehrer  behavior  cars  driving  psychology  estimation  planning  urban  urbanism  transportation  traffic  suburbs  lifestyle  living  satisfaction 
april 2010 by robertogreco
On Overestimation - Artichoke's Wunderkammern
"I am interested in what is claimed - in how I can know. This statistic surprised me - I had bought into the hype around the role of Twitter in the Iranian protests. My distrust of the motives of media and commerce moves me towards an increasing normlessness. Is there anything I can aspire to or hold as true? Leadbeater's analysis of "the cloud" is powerful and expressed with a simple elegance and logic. It has many other insights that provoke new thinking about stuff I thought I knew. Leadbeater is someone who has oftentimes provided a balance to what I hear claimed at educational conferences and read in blogs and other media. This article in The Edge reminds me that I must always seek the measured commentary."
twitter  iran  charlesleadbeater  artichoke  media  estimation  overestimation  truth  statistics  cloud  hypertext  artichokeblog  pamhook 
february 2010 by robertogreco
3quarksdaily - Monday Musing: Useless Calculations
"I am a nerd. I used to be an engineer and so I like calculating stuff in my head. I hardly ever use electronic calculators, even when exact calculations of something are needed, preferring to do them by hand (try it, it can be a soothing thing) on chit’s of paper, backs-of-the-proverbial envelopes, etc. But a lot of the time, I am just calculating really stupid things for fun in my head, especially if I am sitting somewhere (doctor’s office, airport, porcelain throne, bed-before-sleep) with nothing to do. I also have other ways of amusing myself in such situations. For example, I might endlessly rewind and replay a conversation I had with someone over and over in my head, like a TV program, which I realize makes me weird but also remarkably patient with things like flight delays. But mostly, I calculate."
math  approximation  estimation  data 
september 2008 by robertogreco
Overcoming Bias: Planning Fallacy
"planning fallacy is that people think they can plan...fairly reliable way to fix planning fallacy...Just ask how long similar projects have taken in the past, without considering any of the special properties of this project...ask an experienced outsider how long similar projects have taken.You'll get back an answer that sounds hideously long, and clearly reflects no understanding of the special reasons why this particular task will take less time. This answer is true. Deal with it."
estimation  time  planning  scheduling  projectmanagement  management  psychology  learning  gtd  fallacy  estimates  via:preoccupations 
august 2008 by robertogreco

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