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robertogreco : forecasting   24

Beyond Prediction - Charlie's Diary
"The fact is that if I've learned one thing in two years of studying how we think about the future, it's that the one thing that's sorely lacking in the public imagination is positive ideas about where we should be going. We seem to do everything about our future except try to design it. It's a funny thing: nobody ever questions your credentials if you predict doom and destruction. But provide a rosy picture of the future, and people demand that you justify yourself. Increasingly, though, I believe that while warning people of dire possibilities is responsible, providing them with something to aspire to is even more important. The foresight programme has given me a lot of tools to do that in a justifiable way, so I might as well use them."
forecasting  innovation  future  doomandgloom  predictions  design  optimism  hope  planning  2011 
july 2011 by robertogreco
Romance has lived too long upon this river
"Romance has lived too long upon this river; a single-serving web page that tells you how high the tide is at London Bridge: explicitly close up, but also, roughly, at a glance.

The scale runs from zero metres (low tide is typically around 1m deep at London Bridge) to 7.6m (this is around the peak for Spring tides, so if the water fills the screen you know it’s a big one).

The Thames and its related activities are of course the Hello World of real-time data, but I also wanted this to be useful. So Romance… also serves as a weather forecast, warning you if you need to wrap up or take a brolly when you go out."

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london  visualization  river  weather  art  ambient  forecasting  tides  Thames 
january 2011 by robertogreco
Jonah Lehrer's Head Case Column on Punditry -
"The dismal performance of experts inspired Mr. Tetlock to turn his case study into an epic experimental project. He picked 284 people who made their living "commenting or offering advice on political & economic trends," including journalists, foreign policy specialists, economists & intelligence analysts, & began asking them to make predictions. Over the next 2 decades, he peppered them w/ questions: Would George Bush be re-elected? Would apartheid in South Africa end peacefully? Would Quebec secede from Canada? Would the dot-com bubble burst? In each case, the pundits rated the probability of several possible outcomes. By the end of the study, Mr. Tetlock had quantified 82,361 predictions.

How did the experts do? When it came to predicting the likelihood of an outcome, the vast majority performed worse than random chance. In other words, they would have done better picking their answers blindly out of a hat. Liberals, moderates & conservatives were all equally ineffective."
jonahlehrer  experts  forecasting  politics  psychology  predictions 
october 2010 by robertogreco
Idle Words - Cowpox, Smallpox
"We are facing an economic crisis that is within our capacity to solve, and an ecological crisis that we lack the political means to prevent. It's only by failing at the former that we might have a chance at surviving the latter."
change  crisis  2009  recession  climate  economics  forecasting  nonlinear  maciejceglowski  optimism  environment  sustainability  finance  globalwarming  environmentalism  climatechange  democracy  behavior  money  government  politics  maciejcegłowski  non-linear  alinear  linearity 
march 2009 by robertogreco
Avant Game: Whoah -- I just got rabbit holed to my own game - UPDATED
"As you know, Superstruct hasn't launched yet. (Stay tuned -- the story starts September 22, the game starts October 6.) But people are already playing Superstruct. I mean REALLY playing. I'm working from home today. Just got this email from a colleague at the Institute for the Future:"
superstruct  tcsnmy  janemcgonigal  iftf  collectiveintelligence  seriousgames  activism  arg  futurology  forecasting 
october 2008 by robertogreco
theweatherproject 2019
"he weatherproject collects people who collect the weather: volunteers collect a standardised sample of weather at a significant time and place of their choosing. the result perhaps tells us as much about contemporary culture as it does about the weather..."
superstruct  tcsnmy  janemcgonigal  iftf  collectiveintelligence  seriousgames  activism  arg  futurology  forecasting 
october 2008 by robertogreco
The Superstruct Game [almost here]
"This fall, the Institute for the Future invites you to play Superstruct, the world’s first massively multiplayer forecasting game. It’s not just about envisioning the future—it’s about inventing the future. Everyone is welcome to join the game. Watch for the opening volley of threats and survival stories, September 2008."
forecasting  superstruct  futurology  iftf  futurism  crowdsourcing  games  gaming  mmog  environment  arg  classideas  janemcgonigal  seriousgames  multiplayer  play  future 
september 2008 by robertogreco
Saffo: journal - Since the mid-1980s, my mantra for this process is “strong opinions, weakly held....Allow your intuition to guide you to a conclusion, no matter how imperfect -- this is the “strong opinion” part. ”
"...Then --and this is the “weakly held” part-- prove yourself wrong. Engage in creative doubt. Look for information that doesn’t fit, or indicators that pointing in an entirely different direction."
forecasting  future  futurism  opinion  paulsaffo  predictions  flexibility  creativity  information  decisiveness 
july 2008 by robertogreco
Conceptual Trends and Current Topics - Digital Things I've Been Wrong About
"o one can always be right about what will work because the number of variables determining success are too high...This inherent uncertainty about success is what makes life so interesting."
future  predictions  kevinkelly  history  digital  success  forecasting 
april 2008 by robertogreco
Technology Review: TR10: Modeling Surprise
"Combining massive quantities of data, insights into human psychology, and machine learning can help manage surprising events, says Eric Horvitz."
ai  artificial  chaos  collective  psychology  predictions  serendipity  datamining  forecasting  future  futurism  innovation  visualization  intelligence  modeling  technology  statistics  probability  bayesian 
march 2008 by robertogreco
And the 14 Grand Engineering Challenges of the 21st Century Are... | Wired Science from
"Make solar energy affordable. Develop carbon sequestration methods. Provide access to clean water. Restore & improve urban infrastructure. Reverse-engineer brain. Secure cyberspace. Advance personalized learning...."
engineering  future  forecasting  infrastructure  technology  training  learning  problemsolving  environment  entrepreneurship  science  research  energy  politics  policy 
march 2008 by robertogreco
geeKyoto » We were talking about tectonic warefare
"How started: Living in Philiy, taking free morning course on Archigram, reading lots of Ballard. Depressed & Claustrophobic. Started to write about interests/desires...Changed his life...blogger=free, like responsibility to write there, wri
geoffmanaugh  bldgblog  future  sustainability  earth  terraforming  mars  climate  solastalgia  change  human  evolution  time  jgballard  landscape  architecture  presentations  climatechange  culture  forecasting  blogging  blogs 
january 2008 by robertogreco
Blackbeltjones/Work: » “The Earth is becoming unearthly” - Geoff Manaugh/BLDGBLOG at The Bartlett
"Archigram x Ballard x Philadelphia x depression x claustrophobia = start of bldgblog" "The interaction between architecture, weight and the earth’s surface could be further explored" "The new landscapes of the sublime are off-world"

[Now at: ]
geoffmanaugh  bldgblog  future  sustainability  earth  terraforming  mars  climate  solastalgia  change  human  evolution  time  jgballard  landscape  architecture  presentations  climatechange  culture  forecasting  mattjones 
january 2008 by robertogreco
seven for 2007 |
"1. The Decline of the City, the Rise of the City 2. The End of Privacy 3. The Return of Big Computing 4. Systems not Sites 5. Goodbye, Bilbao 6. The Bust 7. The iPhone"
cities  trends  urban  urbanism  mobile  mobility  architecture  housingbubble  kazysvarnelis  suburbs  parkour  iphone  internet  network  future  forecasting  design  remkoolhaas  crisis 
january 2008 by robertogreco
You Can't Predict Who Will Change The World -
"U.S. fosters entrepreneurs & creators, not exam-takers, bureaucrats, deluded economists...perceived weakness of American pupil in conventional studies is where his strength may lie...system of trial & error produces doers: Black Swan-hunting, dream-chasi
blackswans  nassimtaleb  books  constructivism  creativity  gamechanging  education  us  creative  pedagogy  predictions  psychology  future  innovation  trends  forecasting  experimentation  risk  culture  economics  globalization  knowledge  lcproject  homeschool  unschooling  tinkering  deschooling  schools  learning  competition  business  europe  randomness  serendipity 
november 2007 by robertogreco
The World In 2008 | The future of futurology
"1 think small 2 think short-term 3 say you don’t know. Uncertainty looks smarter than ever before 4 get embedded in particular industry, preferably something with computing, national security, global warming 5 talk less, listen more"
future  futurism  futurology  predictions  trends  howto  uncertainty  nearfuture  forecasting  listening 
november 2007 by robertogreco
Inside IT: Forecasting human behaviour carries big risks | Technology | Guardian Unlimited Technology
"Predictive models [while appearing] scientific/rigorous yet simple approach to targeting resources and making decisions about complex human problems...are [according to study] insufficiently accurate to make important decisions about individuals."
forecasting  individual  psychology  simulations  statistics  predictions  socialscience  behavior 
july 2007 by robertogreco
IFTF's Future Now: Paul Saffo on effective forecasting
"Prediction is possible only in a world in which events are preordained and no amount of action in the present can influence future outcomes. That world is the stuff of myth and superstition. The one we inhabit is quite different – little is certain, no
future  forecasting  futurism 
july 2007 by robertogreco
Six Rules for Effective Forecasting
"The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present."
forecasting  future  present  decisionmaking  trends 
july 2007 by robertogreco

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