recentpopularlog in

robertogreco : probability   14

Follow-up: I found two identical packs of Skittles, among 468 packs with a total of 27,740 Skittles | Possibly Wrong
"This is a follow-up to a post from earlier this year discussing the likelihood of encountering two identical packs of Skittles, that is, two packs having exactly the same number of candies of each flavor. Under some reasonable assumptions, it was estimated that we should expect to have to inspect “only about 400-500 packs” on average until encountering a first duplicate."
math  mathematics  classideas  statistics  probability  2019 
4 weeks ago by robertogreco
Impakt Festival 2017 - Performance: ANAB JAIN. HQ - YouTube
[Embedded here: ]

"'Everything is Beautiful and Nothing Hurts': @anab_jain's expansive keynote @impaktfestival weaves threads through death, transcience, uncertainty, growthism, technological determinism, precarity, imagination and truths. Thanks to @jonardern for masterful advise on 'modelling reality', and @tobias_revell and @ndkane for the invitation." ]
anabjain  2017  superflux  death  aging  transience  time  temporary  abundance  scarcity  future  futurism  prototyping  speculativedesign  predictions  life  living  uncertainty  film  filmmaking  design  speculativefiction  experimentation  counternarratives  designfiction  futuremaking  climatechange  food  homegrowing  smarthomes  iot  internetofthings  capitalism  hope  futures  hopefulness  data  dataviz  datavisualization  visualization  williamplayfair  society  economics  wonder  williamstanleyjevons  explanation  statistics  wiiliambernstein  prosperity  growth  latecapitalism  propertyrights  jamescscott  objectivity  technocrats  democracy  probability  scale  measurement  observation  policy  ai  artificialintelligence  deeplearning  algorithms  technology  control  agency  bias  biases  neoliberalism  communism  present  past  worldview  change  ideas  reality  lucagatti  alextaylor  unknown  possibility  stability  annalowenhaupttsing  imagination  ursulaleguin  truth  storytelling  paradigmshifts  optimism  annegalloway  miyamotomusashi  annatsing 
november 2017 by robertogreco
On Repeat - Learning - Source: An OpenNews project
"How to use loops to explain anything"

"GIFs in the Future

I am pretty confident that there are many more ways to use GIFs for journalism. And while I’m not sure what sorts of forms GIFs will take in the future, I urge you to think of ways to bring loops into the world of storytelling on the web in a purposeful, insightful, or just plain humorous way. Because who knows what sorts of impossible or magical or transformative experiences we can create—all with the power of loops."
lenagroeger  gifs  journalism  video  looping  visual  history  animation  animatedgifs  eadweardmuybridge  howthingswork  explanation  probability  communication  classideas  repetition  storytelling  exposuretherapy  giphy 
june 2015 by robertogreco
Allies, Friends, and the Value of Utopian Visions | tressiemc
"I am fortunate to claim economist Sandy Darity as a friend and mentor. I asked him once, after a barn burner of an academic lecture on reparations, why in God’s name would he go all in on something that doesn’t stand a snowball’s chance in hell of ever happening. “That’s what they once said about abolishing slavery,” he said.

I shut up.

And, I got to thinking.

For about six years now, I’ve been thinking about what it means to go all in on the improbable.

Ta-Nehisi Coates reintroduced the subject of reparations to public debate recently. I’m no Coates or Darity but I’ve been around just long enough to know how these debates are often truncated and misconstrued by the well-meaning and nefarious alike. I saw it happening in the responses. I jotted off a thing about how education is the exact wrong prescription for cumulative denial and violent extraction of capital from black lives. The Washington Post ran that thing. I stand by it.

I stand by it knowing that tomorrow I will read the latest scholarship and policy on education and access and inequality and I will do my damn job. I will see us moving the same ball and I will do my job. I will even, most days, enjoy my job. I will read supposedly sober critiques from disciplined conservatives that pull every slight of hand to look serious while avoiding taking any real stance. I will ignore the emails, social media taunts and thinly-veiled threats.

I will do it knowing that no one is about to go all in on reparations legislation this week or even this lifetime.

This is how these things work. Until they don’t.

Sometimes, all of the Times that have mattered actually, a conversation will meet a moment will meet a movement. And, our collective social evolution relies on the zealots who took a stand from time to time.

I’m not saying I’ll be one of them. But I am saying I won’t stand in their way.

Can we say that for our allies? The ones who are fine with reparations in theory but cannot go so far as to deal with its practical application for living victims of apartheid. They, the ones who are happy to talk about slavery given the comfort of space, time, and probability statistics but go silent when reminded that there are living victims of Jim Crow or new victims being made in places like New Orleans as we speak? Can we say the same for friends of equality who cannot imagine justice for people “like you” in an alternate reality even when the stakes are so very low? I mean, if its so ridiculous, so improbable this idea of reparations why can so few allies and friends and progressives and liberals be bothered to even venture utopian futures where black folks have something akin to justice?

It is not unlike creative geniuses who, with the power of CGI and a billion dollars, can imagine green extraterrestrials and shimmering vampires but not black people.

Anyway, I wrote a thing about reparations. I know it won’t matter but that is why I wrote it.

In the meantime, I’m headed to New England to bump up against some bright brains as I work on the here and now of inequality regimes, social media, digital geographies and credentials. It’s my job. I like it.

You can catch me at the Berkman Center in July and mostly here on the blog as I hand a book over to my publisher, usher some pubs through brutal revise and resubmits, and dream of allies and friends."
conversation  utopia  tressiemcmillancottom  small  multiplicities  multiplicity  2014  allies  writing  whywewrite  thinking  probability  improbability 
june 2014 by robertogreco
Nassim Taleb: my rules for life | Books | The Observer
"Modern life is akin to a chronic stress injury, he says. And the way to combat it is to embrace randomness in all its forms: live true to your principles, don't sell your soul and watch out for the carbohydrates."

"You have to pull back and let the system destroy itself, and then come back. That's Seneca's recommendation. He's the one who says that the sage should let the republic destroy itself."

"The "arguments" are that size, in Taleb's view, matters. Bigger means more complex, means more prone to failure. Or, as he puts it, "fragile". "

""Antifragile" is when something is actually strengthened by the knocks."

"In Taleb's view, small is beautiful."

"[He] claims that a janitor also has that kind of independence. "He can say what he thinks. He doesn't have to fit his ethics to his job. It's not about money.""

"He's also largely an autodidact."

"Between 2004 and 2008 were the worst years of my life. Everybody thought I was an idiot. And I knew that. But at the same time…"
math  teaching  fasting  diet  paleodiet  living  life  seneca  classics  war  thomasfriedman  honor  vindication  deschooling  autonomy  unschooling  anarchism  chaos  randomness  principles  honesty  freedom  academia  banking  money  ethics  socialmisfits  cv  independence  blackswans  failure  probability  antifragility  antifragile  small  fragility  autodidacts  2012  books  nassimtaleb 
november 2012 by robertogreco
Real-World Math -
"Hey, kids! Ever wonder how math is done in the real world? This is the way math is done in the real world."

Storify that I put together to document a conversation on Twitter about a specific math problems that Diana Kimball asked for help with.
math  mathematics  realworld  cv  storytelling  storify  collaboration  twitter  2011  timcarmody  robinsloan  dianakimball  games  boardgames  problemsolving  statistics  probability  conversation  comments 
july 2011 by robertogreco
News is cognitively toxic and systematically misleading: Towards a Healthy News Diet [.pdf]
"We are not rational enough to be exposed to the news-mongering press. It is a very dangerous thing, because the probabilistic mapping we get from consuming news is entirely different from the actual risks that we face. Watching an airplane crash on television is going to change your attitude toward that risk regardless of its real probability, no matter your intellectual sophistication. If you think you can compensate for this bias with the strength of your own inner contemplation, you are wrong. Bankers and economists – who have powerful incentives to compensate for news- borne hazards – have shown that they cannot. The only solution: cut yourself off from news consumption entirely."
food  news  health  media  medicine  via:mathowie  psychology  cognition  cognitivebias  bias  information  risk  probability  riskassessment  filetype:pdf  media:document 
april 2011 by robertogreco
The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy « You Are Not So Smart
"When you desire meaning, when you want things to line up, you forget about stochasticity. You are lulled by the signal. You forget about noise. With meaning, you overlook randomness, but meaning is a human construction.<br />
<br />
You have just committed the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.<br />
<br />
The fallacy gets its name from imagining a cowboy shooting at a barn. Over time, the side of the barn becomes riddled with holes. In some places there are lots of them, in others there are few. If the cowboy later paints a bullseye over a spot where his bullet holes clustered together it looks like he is pretty good with a gun.<br />
<br />
By painting a bullseye over a bullet hole the cowboy places artificial order over natural random chance.<br />
<br />
If you have a human brain, you do this all of the time. Picking out clusters of coincidence is a predictable malfunction of normal human logic."
randomness  fallacies  skepticism  statistics  bias  psychology  probability  logic  fallacy  coincidence 
september 2010 by robertogreco
Clive Thompson on Why We Should Learn the Language of Data | Magazine
"There are oodles of other examples of how our inability to grasp statistics — & mother of it all, probability — makes us believe stupid things. Gamblers think their number is more likely to come up this time because it didn’t last time. Political polls are touted by media even when their samples are laughably skewed. (This issue breaks left & right...Intellectually serious skeptics of anthropogenic climate change argue that the statistical case is weak — that Al Gore & fellow travelers employ dubious techniques to sample & crunch global temperatures.)
clivethompson  statistics  literacy  politics  policy  analytics  visualization  mathematics  education  economics  data  environment  information  climate  reason  probability 
may 2010 by robertogreco
Arthur Benjamin's formula for changing math education | Video on
"Someone always asks the math teacher, "Am I going to use calculus in real life?" And for most of us, says Arthur Benjamin, the answer is no. He offers a bold proposal on how to make math education relevant in the digital age."
math  education  learning  teaching  schools  statistics  economics  mathematics  probability  tcsnmy  calculus  change  reform  curriculum  ted  analytics 
june 2009 by robertogreco
"Statistical and applied probabilistic knowledge is the core of knowledge; statistics is what tells you if something is true, false, or merely anecdotal; it is the "logic of science"; it is the instrument of risk-taking; it is the applied tools of epistemology; you can't be a modern intellectual and not think probabilistically—but... let's not be suckers. The problem is much more complicated than it seems to the casual, mechanistic user who picked it up in graduate school. Statistics can fool you. In fact it is fooling your government right now. It can even bankrupt the system (let's face it: use of probabilistic methods for the estimation of risks did just blow up the banking system)."
nassimtaleb  blackswans  decisionmaking  statistics  math  logic  policy  economics  finance  risk  2008  history  future  probability  edge  research  crisis  banking  knowledge  science 
september 2008 by robertogreco
Nassim Nicholas Taleb: the prophet of boom and doom
"When this man said the world’s economy was heading for disaster, he was scorned. Now traders, economists, even Nasa, are clamouring to hear him speak"
economics  risk  nassimtaleb  blackswans  via:blackbeltjones  sociology  interviews  religion  belief  health  diet  exercise  math  statistics  predictions  science  probability 
july 2008 by robertogreco
Book Review - 'The Drunkard’s Walk,' by Leonard Mlodinow - Review -
"State lotteries, it’s sometimes said, are a tax on people who don’t understand mathematics. But there is no cause for anyone to feel smug. The brain, no matter how well schooled, is just plain bad at dealing with randomness and probability."
math  probability  statistics  brain  intelligence  randomness 
june 2008 by robertogreco
Technology Review: TR10: Modeling Surprise
"Combining massive quantities of data, insights into human psychology, and machine learning can help manage surprising events, says Eric Horvitz."
ai  artificial  chaos  collective  psychology  predictions  serendipity  datamining  forecasting  future  futurism  innovation  visualization  intelligence  modeling  technology  statistics  probability  bayesian 
march 2008 by robertogreco

Copy this bookmark:

to read