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Stumbling and Mumbling: Economists, stories & mechanisms
First, I fear Anthony has too much confidence in economists’ ability to build useful scenarios. The problem is that extreme events are often not captured by scenarios. For example, back in 2007 loads of economists had a disaster scenario. But these revolved around an unwinding of consumer debt, or a meltdown of hedge funds, or a dollar collapse triggered by global imbalances. Very few indeed had a remotely accurate credit crunch scenario.
economics  prediction  finance  rationality  sociology  decision-making  scenario-planning  story-telling  wages  minimum-wage 
september 2009 by tsuomela
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