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tsuomela : agreement   4

ScienceDirect - Journal of Monetary Economics : Why do forecasters disagree? Lessons from the term structure of cross-sectional dispersion
"Key sources of disagreement among economic forecasters are identified by using data on cross-sectional dispersion in forecasters’ long- and short-run predictions of macroeconomic variables. Dispersion among forecasters is highest at long horizons where private information is of limited value and lower at short forecast horizons. Moreover, differences in views persist through time. Such differences in opinion cannot be explained by differences in information sets
forecasting  economics  success  failure  agreement  disagreement 
august 2011 by tsuomela
The ridiculous third party rallying cry - David Sirota -
"You don't need look far to see that consensus in action -- just check out the current debt ceiling brouhaha. Paraded around by carnival barkers as supposed proof of unprecedented division and rancor, the moment's manufactured crisis in Washington actually exemplifies all the hallmarks of transpartisan consensus, as the Democratic president and the Republican congressional leadership essentially agree that Social Security and Medicare should be slashed, corporate taxes should be cut, taxes on the wealthy shouldn't be significantly raised and defense spending should face only minimal reductions. The only real "debate" is about the specific numbers -- not about whether such an extreme set of priorities is the proper way to balance a budget."
politics  consensus  agreement  partisanship  bipartisanship  deficit  debt  ideology 
july 2011 by tsuomela
The new political group No Labels shows why labels exist. - By Christopher Beam - Slate Magazine
"Everything you need to know about the new political group No Labels is contained in its slogan: "Not Left. Not Right. Forward." It's smug. It sounds like an Obama campaign catchphrase. And it ignores the whole reason politics exists, which is that not everyone agrees on what "Forward" is. "
politics  bipartisanship  cliche  conflict  agreement 
december 2010 by tsuomela
[cs/0406061] The Complexity of Agreement
A celebrated 1976 theorem of Aumann asserts that honest, rational Bayesian agents with common priors will never "agree to disagree": if their opinions about any topic are common knowledge, then those opinions must be equal. Economists have written numerous papers examining the assumptions behind this theorem. But two key questions went unaddressed: first, can the agents reach agreement after a conversation of reasonable length? Second, can the computations needed for that conversation be performed efficiently? This paper answers both questions in the affirmative, thereby strengthening Aumann's original conclusion.
reasoning  rationality  bayes  probability  philosophy  agreement  disagreement 
may 2009 by tsuomela

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