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tsuomela : confirmation-bias   7

Comment on errors and problems with "Democracy in Chains: The deep history of the radical right's stealth plan for America" by Nancy MacLean.
book  review  history  libertarianism  confirmation-bias  racism 
october 2017 by tsuomela
The Argumentative Theory | Conversation | Edge
""The article,” Haidt said, "is a review of a puzzle that has bedeviled researchers in cognitive psychology and social cognition for a long time. The puzzle is, why are humans so amazingly bad at reasoning in some contexts, and so amazingly good in others?"

"Reasoning was not designed to pursue the truth. Reasoning was designed by evolution to help us win arguments. That's why they call it The Argumentative Theory of Reasoning. So, as they put it, "The evidence reviewed here shows not only that reasoning falls quite short of reliably delivering rational beliefs and rational decisions. It may even be, in a variety of cases, detrimental to rationality. Reasoning can lead to poor outcomes, not because humans are bad at it, but because they systematically strive for arguments that justify their beliefs or their actions. This explains the confirmation bias, motivated reasoning, and reason-based choice, among other things.""
cognition  psychology  bias  decision-making  argument  evolution  rationality  reasoning  theory  confirmation-bias  belief  justification 
may 2011 by tsuomela
Overcoming Bias : Gambling Save Science?
Academics are trustees of one of our greatest resources – the accumulated abstract knowledge of our ancestors. Academics appear to spend most of their time trying to add to that knowledge, and such effort is mostly empirical – seeking new interesting data. Alas, for the purpose of intellectual progress, most of that effort is wasted. And one of the main wastes is academics being too gullible about their and allies’ findings, and too skeptical about rivals’ findings.
academia  academic  bias  confirmation-bias  gullibility  skepticism  prediction  markets 
december 2010 by tsuomela
Summer Rerun: Is Thinking Going Out of Fashion? « naked capitalism
The implication is that books like In Search of Excellence and Good to Great are mere exercises in storytelling, because their main data sources, press reports and retrospective interviews, ar hopelessly tainted by the halo effect. And he goes on to prove analytically that their findings were incorrect.

Now Rosenzweig’s book has a very important message, but I challenge you to boil it down to even three sentences. As a consequence, (and Make It Stick is borne out here) it won’t have the impact it ought to. But by the Heaths’ logic, popularity is tantamount to merit. That just ain’t so. In fact, one could argue that one way to get ahead in a competitive world is to have an information advantage, and seek out more complicated constructs that are ignored in a dumbed-down world.
business  management  simplicity  slogans  halo-effect  psychology  confirmation-bias 
august 2010 by tsuomela
Relevant History: Anthony Grafton on graduate school, and the uncertain nature of big decisions
I never thought about talking to people who'd almost finished the programs I was looking at but dropped out, or people who didn't become academics. It turns out, of course, that it would have been far more useful for me to talk to Ph.D.s who'd gone into business. But those people aren't as easy to find as the ones in the faculty lounge or TA offices.
graduate-school  phd  academia  work  expertise  confirmation-bias 
april 2009 by tsuomela

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