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tsuomela : decision-making   61

This is the best book to help you understand the wild 2016 campaign - Vox
"Back in May, Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels released Democracy for Realists, based on years of scholarship they’ve done on the ugly realities of how American voting behavior really works. It sheds crucial light on a question that liberals have been banging their heads over for months — why on earth would anyone vote for Donald Trump? Their analysis is both troubling and important: Throughout history, people in general have cast their votes for no particularly good reason at all, so there’s no reason to expect Trump supporters to be any different. "
book  review  political-science  democracy  voting  psychology  reasoning  decision-making  cognition 
october 2016 by tsuomela
Sociocracy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"Sociocracy is a system of governance, using consent-based decision making among equivalent individuals and an organizational structure based on cybernetic principles.[1] The first modern implementation of sociocracy was developed by Gerard Endenburg as a new method of governing businesses,[2] but it has also been adopted in many different kinds of public, private, non-profit, and community organizations as well as in professional associations."
governance  democracy  decision-making  groups  consent 
january 2015 by tsuomela
The Center for Science and Democracy | Union of Concerned Scientists
"Strengthening American democracy by advancing the essential role of science, evidence-based decision making, and constructive debate as a means to improve the health, security, and prosperity of all people."
government  science  democracy  decision-making  policy 
may 2013 by tsuomela
James March on Education, Leadership, and Don Quixote: Introduction and Interview « 茫茫戈壁
"Starting off in political science and then moving through several disciplinary domains such as management theory, psychology, sociology, economics, organization and institutional theory, March’s academic career has been focused on understanding and analyzing human decision making and behavior. The basic thesis that he has pursued is that human action is neither optimal (or unboundedly rational) nor random, but nevertheless reasonably comprehensible (March, 1978, 1994, 1999). The ideas that were developed to understand human behavior in organizations in March’s early work in the analysis of how people deal with an uncertain and ambiguous world included, among other things, the concepts of bounded rationality and satisficing "
organizations  rationality  boundaries  limits  institutions  business  management  decision-making 
april 2012 by tsuomela
Are Emotions Prophetic? | Wired Science | Wired.com
While there is an extensive literature on the potential wisdom of human emotion – David Hume was a prescient guy – it’s only in the last few years that researchers have demonstrated that the emotional system (aka Type 1 thinking) might excel at complex decisions, or those involving lots of variables. If true, this would suggest that the unconscious is better suited for difficult cognitive tasks than the conscious brain, that the very thought process we’ve long disregarded as irrational and impulsive might actually be more intelligent, at least in some conditions.
emotion  psychology  cognition  thinking  decision-making  complexity 
march 2012 by tsuomela
Stumbling and Mumbling: In defence of short-termism
"What’s more, short-termism can protect us from two cognitive biases.
One is overconfidence. Given that the long-term future is unknowable, investment in long-term projects is often founded upon overconfidence about one’s predictions
long-term  short-term  time  decision-making  politics  markets 
october 2011 by tsuomela
The Fed Dissenters, Or: Examining Narayana Kocherlakota’s Gut. | Rortybomb
"There it is. Job creators hate future taxes, and unemployment insurance has left our workforce weak, so don’t expect unemployment to come down anytime soon.

For all the fancy math, this logic is very similar to Fisher. ”Now suppose that, for the reasons just mentioned, p fell by 10 percent in the past three years and z increased by 0.05 during this period” is about as close to a “gut” feeling and “gut” reasoning as you can get. This appears to be how one of the most powerful people in the world for determining the future of the United States’ economy is determining his dissent from Bernanke’s position."
unemployment  decision-making  models  econometrics  macroeconomic  economics  recession 
august 2011 by tsuomela
When Do Groups Perform Better than Individuals? A Company Takeover Experiment by Marco Casari, Jingjing Zhang, Christine Jackson :: SSRN
"It is still an open question when groups will perform better than individuals in intellectual tasks. We report that in a company takeover experiment, groups placed better bids than individuals and substantially reduced the winner’s curse. This improvement was mostly due to peer pressure over the minority opinion and to group learning. Learning took place from interacting and negotiating consensus with others, not simply from observing their bids. When there was disagreement within a group, what prevailed was not the best proposal but the one of the majority. Groups underperformed with respect to a “truth wins” benchmark although they outperformed individuals deciding in isolation. "
groups  collective-intelligence  decision-making  performance  intelligence 
august 2011 by tsuomela
Stumbling and Mumbling: Consistency
"One thing that has often irked me is the criticism politicians get for making U-turns. What’s wrong with changing your mind if new information comes to light?
A new paper by Armin Falk and Florian Zimmermann of the University of Bonn sheds light on my puzzlement. People, they say, value consistency in themselves and in others as a way of signalling intellectual strength.
And this value is an intrinsic one. We don’t just like consistency because it is a means to better decision-making. We value it even if it gets in the way of rational decisions."
psychology  consistency  signals  bias  rationality  decision-making 
july 2011 by tsuomela
The Argumentative Theory | Conversation | Edge
""The article,” Haidt said, "is a review of a puzzle that has bedeviled researchers in cognitive psychology and social cognition for a long time. The puzzle is, why are humans so amazingly bad at reasoning in some contexts, and so amazingly good in others?"

"Reasoning was not designed to pursue the truth. Reasoning was designed by evolution to help us win arguments. That's why they call it The Argumentative Theory of Reasoning. So, as they put it, "The evidence reviewed here shows not only that reasoning falls quite short of reliably delivering rational beliefs and rational decisions. It may even be, in a variety of cases, detrimental to rationality. Reasoning can lead to poor outcomes, not because humans are bad at it, but because they systematically strive for arguments that justify their beliefs or their actions. This explains the confirmation bias, motivated reasoning, and reason-based choice, among other things.""
cognition  psychology  bias  decision-making  argument  evolution  rationality  reasoning  theory  confirmation-bias  belief  justification 
may 2011 by tsuomela
Video - Crisis of Decision Making
Description: Underlying the climate change crisis is a crisis in our collective ability to make decisions that support sustainability. This video highlights the connection between the challenges of responding to climate change and the capacities needed to engage in effective democratic decision making. It indicates that research in adult development helps us to understand these 21 century capacities. Public deliberation through deliberative democracy, when designed to support adult development, holds the possibility of improving our capacities to respond to complex public issues.

This video includes environmentalists Thomas Homer Dixon and Lester Brown , evolutionary biologist Elisabet Sahtouris, developmental specialists Robert Kegan, and Bill Torbert, and deliberative democracy and complexity specialists Shawn Rosenberg, Jan Inglis and Sara Ross
video  environment  decision-making  science 
april 2011 by tsuomela
Overcoming Bias : Beware Commitment
"Speechifiers through the ages, including policy makers today, usually talk as if they want decisions to be made in far mode. We should try to live up to our ideals, they preach, at least regarding far-away decisions. But our reluctance to use contracts to enable more far mode control over our actions suggests that while we tend to talk as if we want more far mode control, we usually act to achieve more near mode control. "
psychology  choice  rationality  rational  decision-making  perspective  near-far 
january 2011 by tsuomela
The Presidential memoirs of George W. Bush, review : The New Yorker
For him, the war remains “eternally right,” a success with unfortunate footnotes. His decisions, he still believes, made America safer, gave Iraqis hope, and changed the future of the Middle East for the better. Of these three claims, only one is true—the second—and it’s a truth steeped in tragedy.
Bush ends “Decision Points” with the sanguine thought that history’s verdict on his Presidency will come only after his death. During his years in office, two wars turned into needless disasters, and the freedom agenda created such deep cynicism around the world that the word itself was spoiled. In America, the gap between the rich few and the vast majority widened dramatically, contributing to a historic financial crisis and an ongoing recession; the poisoning of the atmosphere continued unabated; and the Constitution had less and less say over the exercise of executive power. Whatever the judgments of historians, these will remain foregone conclusions.
about(GeorgeBush)  book  review  autobiography  decision-making  politicians  history 
november 2010 by tsuomela
Why So Many People Can't Make Decisions - WSJ.com
Seeing the world as black and white, in which choices seem clear, or shades of gray can affect people's path in life, from jobs and relationships to which political candidate they vote for, researchers say. People who often have conflicting feelings about situations—the shades-of-gray thinkers—have more of what psychologists call ambivalence, while those who tend toward unequivocal views have less ambivalence.
psychology  ambiguity  decision-making  ambivalence  management 
october 2010 by tsuomela
Paul Weirich - Collective Rationality: Equilibrium in Cooperative Games - Reviewed by Martin Peterson, Eindhoven University of Technology - Philosophical Reviews - University of Notre Dame
In Collective Rationality, Paul Weirich presents a very precise account of what collective rationality amounts to, proposes a new generalised equilibrium concept that he argues is more plausible than Nash's, and briefly discusses the implications of his views for other philosophical topics.
philosophy  game-theory  rationality  collective  collective-intelligence  group  decision-making 
july 2010 by tsuomela
Citizen juries are vital for science policymaking - SciDev.Net
To this end, citizen consensus councils (CCCs), also known as 'citizen juries', offer a powerful implementation tool. CCCs, first developed in Denmark in the 1990s, are small groups of people brought together to debate key scientific or technological issues and propose policy responses.

Their members are either chosen at random or because together they are demographically representative of their communities.

CCCs hear evidence from a selection of experts and are professionally overseen to reach agreement on how to address the issue at hand. Their conclusions are sent to the relevant authorities and publicised within the populations they represent, usually through the press. They operate much like a jury in that, once their recommendations have been made, they are disbanded.
science  policy  public-policy  participation  citizenship  sts  decision-making 
may 2010 by tsuomela
From Inside and Out, Climate Panel Is Pushed to Change - Dot Earth Blog - NYTimes.com
Internal discussions about the methods of the IPCC regarding outsider opinions, long-tail risks, and the notion of expertise.
climate  global-warming  science  policy  decision-making  transparency  ipcc  risk  long-tail  outliers  opinion  expertise 
january 2010 by tsuomela
Choice & Inference
Choice & Inference provides a platform for dialogue and news within the fields of formal epistemology and decision theory, broadly construed. Topics include (but are not limited to) uncertain and ampliative inference, frequentist statistics and modeling, coherence, paradoxes of belief and / or action, belief revision, disagreement and consensus, causal discovery, epistemology of religion, etc. And the formal tools used to pursue questions within these topics include (but are not limited to) game theory and decision theory, formal learning theory, probability theory and statistics, networks and graphs, and formal logic.
epistemology  decision-making  philosophy  logic  weblog-group 
december 2009 by tsuomela
Stumbling and Mumbling: Economists, stories & mechanisms
First, I fear Anthony has too much confidence in economists’ ability to build useful scenarios. The problem is that extreme events are often not captured by scenarios. For example, back in 2007 loads of economists had a disaster scenario. But these revolved around an unwinding of consumer debt, or a meltdown of hedge funds, or a dollar collapse triggered by global imbalances. Very few indeed had a remotely accurate credit crunch scenario.
economics  prediction  finance  rationality  sociology  decision-making  scenario-planning  story-telling  wages  minimum-wage 
september 2009 by tsuomela
Stumbling and Mumbling: Keynes & irrationality
You can’t open a newspaper these days without seeing some article about how people behave irrationally. What much of this writing misses, however, is that - for many practical purposes - it’s just impossible to behave rationally. The distinction between actually-existing irrational people and the desiccated calculating machine of economic theory is a false one - because the latter cannot exist.
economics  rationality  decision-making  limits  boundaries  about(JohnMaynardKeynes) 
september 2009 by tsuomela
Stumbling and Mumbling: Gender
summaries and pointers to some research papers on topic of gender and decisions
gender  decision-making  decision  choice 
august 2009 by tsuomela
BPS RESEARCH DIGEST: How to improve group decision making
A new meta-analysis of 72 studies, involving 4,795 groups and over 17,000 individuals has shown that groups tend to spend most of their time discussing the information shared by members, which is therefore redundant, rather than discussing information known only to one or a minority of members. This is important because those groups that do share unique information tend to make better decisions.
groups  group  behavior  groupthink  decision-making  information  crowdsourcing  bias 
april 2009 by tsuomela
Given "Expert" Advice, Brains Shut Down | Wired Science from Wired.com
A brain-scanning study of people making financial choices suggests that when given expert advice, the decision-making parts of our brains often shut down.
neuroimaging  brain-imaging  brain  economics  decision-making  rationality  finance  science  expertise 
april 2009 by tsuomela
Ben Casnocha: The Blog: Regret Aversion
We regret the things we don't do more than the things we do. - Mark Twain
regret  decision-making  retrospective  perception 
march 2009 by tsuomela
Overcoming Bias: Beware Detached Detail
Robin Hanson continues his speculation on near/far thoughts. Our effort to appear to have good near thoughts might lead to detatched details that look good but have low impact on near decisions and low resource costs. Annotated link http://www.diigo.com/bookmark/http%3A%2F%2Fwww.overcomingbias.com%2F2009%2F01%2Fbeware-detached-detail.html
psychology  perception  future  phenomenology  experience  hypocrisy  mental  management  cognition  religion  decision-making  empathy  escapism 
march 2009 by tsuomela
Overcoming Bias: A Tale Of Two Tradeoffs
Robin Hanson posits two mental tradeoffs among social animals and speculates on their interactions. 1) making good decisions and presenting good images to others 2) greater resources required for more detailed descriptions/thoughts. Leads to detail thinking for 'near' objects/events/people etc., and sparse thinking for 'far'. Annotated link http://www.diigo.com/bookmark/http%3A%2F%2Fwww.overcomingbias.com%2F2009%2F01%2Fa-tale-of-two-tradeoffs.html
psychology  perception  future  phenomenology  experience  hypocrisy  mental  management  cognition  decision-making  empathy 
february 2009 by tsuomela
Norms, Minorities, and Collective Choice Online [Full Text]
In this essay, we argue that we should try to capture variation by paying more attention to the decision rules governing choice within collectivities on the Internet. As best we know, all of the sociologically "interesting" collective endeavors on the Internet are characterized by rules or norms
online  internet  culture  norms  behavior  psychology  collective  decision-making  decision 
january 2009 by tsuomela
Stumbling and Mumbling: Experts
To point out that experts are wrong, however, is to misunderstand the purpose of them. Their function is not to provide knowledge, and still less clear thinking. Instead, it is to provide certainty. People hate dissonance, doubt and uncertainty. Experts help dispel these.
expertise  bias  decision-making  rationality  philosophy  certainty  psychology 
december 2008 by tsuomela
Ending the Rationality Wars - How to Make Disputes About Human Rationality Disappear
Paper by Richard Samuels, Stephen Stich, and Michael Bishop.
Abstract: On the face of it, the dispute between evolutionary psychology and the heuristics and biases tradition would appear to be a deep disagreement over the extent of human rationality -- a conflict between two sharply divergent assessments of human reasoning. This impression is strengthened by the heated exchanges that pepper the academic literature and reinforced by steamy reports of the debate that have appeared in the popular press (Bower 1996). It is our contention, however, that the alleged conflict between evolutionary psychologists and advocates of the heuristics and biases program has been greatly exaggerated. The claims made on either side of the dispute can, we maintain, be plausibly divided into core claims and mere rhetorical flourishes.(1
rationality  philosophy  decision-making  information  disagreement 
december 2008 by tsuomela
How Voters Decide - Cambridge University Press
This book attempts to redirect the field of voting behavior research by proposing a paradigm-shifting framework for studying voter decision making. An innovative experimental methodology is presented for getting ‘inside the heads’ of citizens as they confront the overwhelming rush of information from modern presidential election campaigns. Four broad theoretically-defined types of decision strategies that voters employ to help decide which candidate to support are described and operationally-defined. Individual and campaign-related factors that lead voters to adopt one or another of these strategies are examined. Most importantly, this research proposes a new normative focus for the scientific study of voting behavior: we should care about not just which candidate received the most votes, but also how many citizens voted correctly - that is, in accordance with their own fully-informed preferences.
political-science  voting  psychology  theory  decision-making  model 
october 2008 by tsuomela
Why we vote the way we do - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
Q: What's the most important thing about voters that you discovered while researching your book?

A: Please do not pose this as though I'm the first one to have found this ... but one of the clear things from our research is that the people who look at the most information, who gather the most information, are not necessarily the people who are going to best be able to determine which candidate is best for them. Really people often do better with little information than with a lot of information. We had two different types of voters who we talked about. One type was what we called "fast and frugal voters." Another we called "cognitive misers" or "heuristic-based voters," who'd look for specific cues and go for them.
politics  political-science  psychology  voting  decision-making  heuristic  frugal 
october 2008 by tsuomela
Neural Systems Responding to Degrees of Uncertainty in Human Decision-Making -- Hsu et al. 310 (5754): 1680 -- Science
Much is known about how people make decisions under varying levels of probability (risk). Less is known about the neural basis of decision-making when probabilities are uncertain because of missing information (ambiguity). In decision theory, ambiguity about probabilities should not affect choices. Using functional brain imaging, we show that the level of ambiguity in choices correlates positively with activation in the amygdala and orbitofrontal cortex, and negatively with a striatal system. Moreover, striatal activity correlates positively with expected reward. Neurological subjects with orbitofrontal lesions were insensitive to the level of ambiguity and risk in behavioral choices. These data suggest a general neural circuit responding to degrees of uncertainty, contrary to decision theory.
neurology  decision-making  ambiguity  risk  psychology  images  mental  brain-imaging 
october 2008 by tsuomela
Kenneth Arrow: The financial turmoil is a challenge to economic theory | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk
The root of this financial crisis is the tension between wanting to spread risk and not understanding its consequences [based on large differences of information among market participants]
economics  finance  banking  risk  information  decision-making  markets 
october 2008 by tsuomela
Stranger Fruit: It’s always our decision who we are.
It might be true that there are six billion people in the world and counting. Nevertheless, what you do makes a difference. It makes a difference, first of all, in material terms. Makes a difference to other people and it sets an example. In short, I thin
philosophy  existentialism  decision-making  activism 
june 2008 by tsuomela
Cognitive Daily: Making complicated decisions by vote: It's complicated
A jury might acquit or convict someone while knowing their decision doesn't conform to the letter of the law. A computer search might return results that don't strictly match the search criteria. These are all examples of the doctrinal paradox.
decision-making  psychology  research 
november 2007 by tsuomela
OODA
Col John Boyd, USAF (Ret), coined the term and developed the concept of the "OODA Loop" (Observation, Orientation, Decision, Action).
decision-making  psychology 
march 2007 by tsuomela
Doxory
asking friends for advice, uses open-id
advice  community  decision-making  social  web2.0  collaboration 
march 2007 by tsuomela

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