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tsuomela : econometrics   30

Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds
"This paper raises basic questions about the process of economic growth. It questions the assumption, nearly universal since Solow’s seminal contributions of the 1950s, that economic growth is a continuous process that will persist forever. There was virtually no growth before 1750, and thus there is no guarantee that growth will continue indefinitely. Rather, the paper suggests that the rapid progress made over the past 250 years could well turn out to be a unique episode in human history. The paper is only about the United States and views the future from 2007 while pretending that the financial crisis did not happen. Its point of departure is growth in per-capita real GDP in the frontier country since 1300, the U.K. until 1906 and the U.S. afterwards. Growth in this frontier gradually accelerated after 1750, reached a peak in the middle of the 20th century, and has been slowing down since. The paper is about “how much further could the frontier growth rate decline?” "
economics  growth  econometrics  future  capitalism  innovation 
october 2012 by tsuomela
The Fed Dissenters, Or: Examining Narayana Kocherlakota’s Gut. | Rortybomb
"There it is. Job creators hate future taxes, and unemployment insurance has left our workforce weak, so don’t expect unemployment to come down anytime soon.

For all the fancy math, this logic is very similar to Fisher. ”Now suppose that, for the reasons just mentioned, p fell by 10 percent in the past three years and z increased by 0.05 during this period” is about as close to a “gut” feeling and “gut” reasoning as you can get. This appears to be how one of the most powerful people in the world for determining the future of the United States’ economy is determining his dissent from Bernanke’s position."
unemployment  decision-making  models  econometrics  macroeconomic  economics  recession 
august 2011 by tsuomela
Measure of America: American Human Development Project
"The American Human Development Project provides easy-to-use yet methodologically sound tools for understanding the distribution of well-being and opportunity in America and stimulating fact-based dialogue about issues we all care about: health, education, and living standards."
education  statistics  maps  health  development  america  human  econometrics  economics  political-science 
may 2011 by tsuomela
Has finance gone too far? | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
"Our results show that the marginal effect of financial development on output growth becomes negative when credit to the private sector surpasses 110% of GDP. This result is surprisingly consistent across different types of estimators (simple regressions and semi-parametric estimations) and data (country-level and industry-level). The threshold at which we find that financial development starts having a negative effect on growth is similar to the threshold at which Easterly et al. 2000 find that financial development starts increasing volatility."
economics  econometrics  finance  financial-engineering  wall-street  markets 
april 2011 by tsuomela
Steven Pearlstein - Key to job growth, equality is boosting tradable sector of economy
"In short, what ails the U.S. economy is primarily a structural problem, not a cyclical one that can be effectively dealt with through the magic of short-term Keynesian stimulus. Unless we find a way to dramatically increase the size and scope of the tradable sector, Spence says, we're in for an extended period of slow job growth and rising inequality. And make no mistake: at the heart of this problem is globalization."
economics  america  econometrics  jobs  growth  industry  industrial  policy  government  globalization 
march 2011 by tsuomela
The sad but true story of wages in America
Essentially, economic policy has not supported good jobs over the last 30 years or so. Rather, the focus has been on policies that were thought to make consumers better off through lower prices: deregulation of industries, privatization of public services, the weakening of labor standards including the minimum wage, erosion of the social safety net, expanding globalization, and the move toward fewer and weaker unions. These policies have served to erode the bargaining power of most workers, widen wage inequality, and deplete access to good jobs. In the last 10 years even workers with a college degree have failed to see any real wage growth.
economics  money  wages  wealth  work  labor  income  productivity  history  econometrics 
march 2011 by tsuomela
Low-wage East meets high-quality West: New firm-level evidence from France | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
"With exports from low-wage countries like China on the rise, the question of what this means for trade and jobs in developed countries is a furious war of words. This column, using firm-level data for France between 1995 and 2005, shows that competition from low-wage markets actually boosts the sales of high-quality goods – but it concedes the benefits are not universal."
econometrics  economics  comparison  international  trade  wages  income 
march 2011 by tsuomela
Laurence Chandy and Geoffrey Gertz - Missing poverty's new reality: There's a lot less of it
"We estimate that between 2005 and 2010, nearly half a billion people escaped extreme hardship, as the total number of the world's poor fell to 878 million people. Never before in history have so many people been lifted out of poverty in such a short period. The U.N. Millennium Development Goals established the target of halving the rate of global poverty between 1990 and 2015
poverty  global  economics  growth  econometrics  2010s  measurement 
january 2011 by tsuomela
PLoS ONE: Urban Scaling and Its Deviations: Revealing the Structure of Wealth, Innovation and Crime across Cities
" Typically, linear per capita indicators are used to characterize and rank cities. However, these implicitly ignore the fundamental role of nonlinear agglomeration integral to the life history of cities. As such, per capita indicators conflate general nonlinear effects, common to all cities, with local dynamics, specific to each city, failing to provide direct measures of the impact of local events and policy. Agglomeration nonlinearities are explicitly manifested by the superlinear power law scaling of most urban socioeconomic indicators with population size, all with similar exponents (1.15). As a result larger cities are disproportionally the centers of innovation, wealth and crime, all to approximately the same degree. We use these general urban laws to develop new urban metrics that disentangle dynamics at different scales and provide true measures of local urban performance. "
cities  urban  economics  statistics  powerlaw  growth  model  mathematics  econometrics  research  complexity 
january 2011 by tsuomela
Outstanding, Superlinear Cities - Science News
"In an article this month in PLoS ONE, Bettencourt and his team created a way to measure how exceptional cities are by comparing their characteristics with what mathematics would predict for their size. The team then ranked the exceptionality of 300 U.S. cities based on personal incomes, gross metropolitan product (GMP), number of patents and number of violent crimes. "
cities  urban  economics  statistics  econometrics  mathematics  model  growth  powerlaw 
january 2011 by tsuomela
Interview with Laurence Meyer :: 10.06.2010 :: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
So I think we have two kinds of modeling traditions. First there is the classic tradition...This is the beginning of modern macro-econometric model building. That’s the kind of models that I would use, the kind of models that folks at the Board use.
There’s also another tradition that began to build up in the late seventies to early eighties—the real business cycle or neoclassical models. It’s what’s taught in graduate schools. It’s the only kind of paper that can be published in journals. It is called “modern macroeconomics.”
Those models are a diversion. They haven’t been helpful at all at understanding anything that would be relevant to a monetary policymaker or fiscal policymaker. So we’d better come back to, and begin with as our base, these classic macro-econometric models. We don’t need a revolution.
econometrics  economics  history  model  modeling 
october 2010 by tsuomela
interfluidity » Using multiple price indexes to measure changes in inequality is not a good idea
It is basically a bad idea to try to measure “real income inequality” with price indices, because the consumption-related welfare of the poor is so much more sensitive to changes in income than that of the rich. Variations in consumption or spending that generate small changes in quality of life among the wealthy generate large variations in nutrition, health, education, and shelter among the poor. If you think consumption inequality is all that matters, you should just not pay any attention to what’s going o
income  income-distribution  econometrics  economics  inflation  politics 
october 2010 by tsuomela
Rick Bookstaber: Physics Envy in Finance
Andrew Lo and Mark Meuller have has a recent paper that addresses the issue of physics envy. They focus on the applicability of the tools of physics as the type of uncertainty becomes more profound, pointing out that while physics can generate useful models if there is well-parameterized uncertainty, where we know the distribution of the randomness, it becomes less useful if the uncertainty is fuzzy and ill-defined, what is called Knightian uncertainty.
I think it is useful to go one step further, and ask where this fuzzy, ill-defined uncertainty comes from. It is not all inevitable, it is not just that this is the way the world works. It is also the creation of those in the market, created because that is how those in the market make their money. That is, the markets are difficult to model, whether with the methods of physics or anything else, because those in the market make their money by having it difficult to model, or, more generally, difficult for others to anticipate and do as
econometrics  econophysics  envy  physics  finance  financial-engineering  determinism  risk  information-asymmetry  information 
august 2010 by tsuomela
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks
This paper investigates the impact of changes in the level of taxation on economic activity. We use the narrative record -- presidential speeches, executive-branch documents, and Congressional reports -- to identify the size, timing, and principal motivation for all major postwar tax policy actions. This narrative analysis allows us to separate revenue changes resulting from legislation from changes occurring for other reasons.
tax-cuts  taxes  economics  econometrics  american  history  2h20c  paper  research 
july 2010 by tsuomela - Macroeconomic Effect of Tax Changes
In The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks (NBER Working Paper No. 13264), authors Christina Romer and David Romer observe that this difficulty is just one manifestation of a more general problem. Changes in taxes occur for many reasons. And, because the factors that give rise to tax changes often are correlated with other developments in the economy, disentangling the effects of the tax changes from the effects of these underlying factors is inherently difficult.
tax-cuts  taxes  economics  econometrics  american  history  2h20c 
july 2010 by tsuomela
Is Okun’s Law Really Broken? - Freakonomics Blog -
But perhaps the problem isn’t Okun’s Law. Perhaps the problem is how we measure output growth. In fact, there are two measures of output growth—the usual measure, which adds up total spending in the economy, and the alternative, which adds up total income. In theory, the two should be exactly the same. In practice, they have been very different during this recession.
economics  measurement  econometrics  gdp  recession  theory  unemployment  statistics 
march 2010 by tsuomela
Nature's role in sustaining economic development — Philosophical Transactions B
In this paper, I formalize the idea of sustainable development in terms of intergenerational well-being. I then sketch an argument that has recently been put forward formally to demonstrate that intergenerational well-being increases over time if and only if a comprehensive measure of wealth per capita increases. The measure of wealth includes not only manufactured capital, knowledge and human capital (education and health), but also natural capital (e.g. ecosystems).
environment  research  sustainability  intergenerational  equality  future  ethics  measurement  econometrics  economics  development 
january 2010 by tsuomela / Comment / Opinion - Mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust
This unraveling may not occur for a while, as easy money and excessive global liquidity can push asset prices higher for a while. But the longer and bigger the carry trades and the larger the asset bubble, the bigger will be the ensuing asset bubble crash. The Fed and other policymakers seem unaware of the monster bubble they are creating. The longer they remain blind, the harder the markets will fall.
econometrics  banking  gloom-and-doom  bubble  international  trade  monetary-policy 
november 2009 by tsuomela
NBER Macrohistory Database
During the first several decades of its existence, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) assembled an extensive data set that covers all aspects of the pre-WWI and interwar economies, including production, construction, employment, money, prices, asset market transactions, foreign trade, and government activity. Many series are highly disaggregated, and many exist at the monthly or quarterly frequency.
economics  econometrics  data-sources  government  statistics  gdp 
september 2009 by tsuomela
Bruce Hansen's Econometrics Text
This is a draft of an incomplete first-year Ph.D. econometrics textbook.
econometrics  economics  textbook  online  reference 
june 2009 by tsuomela
Off the Charts - A Recession That Is Already Setting Records -
on the Index of Coincident Indicators. Current recession worst than every other since WW2, except 1973-5. Employment losses already the worst in post-war period.
recession  statistics  economics  econometrics 
april 2009 by tsuomela
Dani Rodrik's weblog: Are the good times really over?
Note by contrast that the period of gung-ho globalization, which we may date from the early 1990s on, presented no improvement over the preceding post-war arrangements.
economics  econometrics  history  globalization  cold-war  2h20c 
april 2009 by tsuomela

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