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tsuomela : forecasting   9

Home | Pardee Center for International Futures
"A MODEL FOR GLOBAL FORECASTING At the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, our mission is to explore, understand and shape alternative futures of global change and human development. As part of this pursuit, we have built the International Futures (IFs) model, the most sophisticated and comprehensive forecasting modeling system available to the public. IFs uses our best understanding of global systems to produce forecasts for 186 countries to the year 2100. Our team, based at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver, works with organizations around the world who share our interest in long-term, integrated analysis of development, security, and sustainability issues."
futures  modeling  global  forecasting 
july 2018 by tsuomela
Forecasting: principles and practice | OTexts
"Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly."
book  online  open-access  open-education  textbook  statistics  probability  forecasting 
october 2016 by tsuomela
Forecasting: principles and practice | OTexts
"Welcome to our online textbook on forecasting. This textbook is intended to provide a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and to present enough information about each method for readers to be able to use them sensibly. We don’t attempt to give a thorough discussion of the theoretical details behind each method, although the references at the end of each chapter will fill in many of those details. The book is written for three audiences: (1) people finding themselves doing forecasting in business when they may not have had any formal training in the area; (2) undergraduate students studying business; (3) MBA students doing a forecasting elective. We use it ourselves for a second-year subject for students undertaking a Bachelor of Commerce degree at Monash University, Australia."
r  statistics  reference  programming  data  analysis  tutorial  time-series  forecasting 
may 2016 by tsuomela
ScienceDirect - Journal of Monetary Economics : Why do forecasters disagree? Lessons from the term structure of cross-sectional dispersion
"Key sources of disagreement among economic forecasters are identified by using data on cross-sectional dispersion in forecasters’ long- and short-run predictions of macroeconomic variables. Dispersion among forecasters is highest at long horizons where private information is of limited value and lower at short forecast horizons. Moreover, differences in views persist through time. Such differences in opinion cannot be explained by differences in information sets
forecasting  economics  success  failure  agreement  disagreement 
august 2011 by tsuomela

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