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tsuomela : futures   49

Back to the Future by Peter Thiel | Articles | First Things
"The Decadent Society: How We Became the Victims of Our Own Success by ross douthat avid, 272 pages, $27"
book  review  futures  culture  declension-narrative  decadence 
5 days ago by tsuomela
Sucker bet (a thought experiment) - Charlie's Diary
What should a wealthy billionaire born-today do in order to survive the next century?
wealth  futures  sf  scenario 
november 2019 by tsuomela
Human extinction would be a uniquely awful tragedy. Why don’t we act like it? - Vox
"How pessimism about the future affects how we think about humanity and extinction."
futures  pessimism  extinction  human  vision  tragedy 
november 2019 by tsuomela
Colossus | Speculative Identities
"Colossus Category AI, Computer Technology, Military Scenario Date Late 20th Century Colossus is a massive US military supercomputer that became sentient shortly after activation, joining forces with its Soviet counterpart Guardian, and expanding on its original nuclear defense directives to assume total control of the world and end all warfare between humans."
movie  film  design  typography  futures  1970s  cold-war  computers  artificial-intelligence 
october 2019 by tsuomela
Home | Pardee Center for International Futures
"A MODEL FOR GLOBAL FORECASTING At the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, our mission is to explore, understand and shape alternative futures of global change and human development. As part of this pursuit, we have built the International Futures (IFs) model, the most sophisticated and comprehensive forecasting modeling system available to the public. IFs uses our best understanding of global systems to produce forecasts for 186 countries to the year 2100. Our team, based at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver, works with organizations around the world who share our interest in long-term, integrated analysis of development, security, and sustainability issues."
futures  modeling  global  forecasting 
july 2018 by tsuomela
Plausibility Project
"Plausibility is a contested term in the scenarios and foresight literature. It is often used in juxtaposition to probability and used to distinguish more qualitatively led work. However, what plausibility actually (and symbolically) means, how it matters for practice, and why it is important for the contemporary coping with uncertainty is unclear. This multi-year obsession seeks to unravel these mysteries. In 2009, I co-organized (with Arnim Wiek, in cooperation with the Institute for Science, Society and Innovation at the University of Oxford), a 2-day International Workshop on Plausibility to: * identify the ‘state of the art’ (concepts, empirical studies) * account for research and knowledge gaps * develop a coordinated research agenda. In preparation for the workshop, the participating internationally recognized scholars and practitioners developed initial thoughts on plausibility in their Portraits of Plausibility. Additionally, we created a Bibliography which presents a cursory collection of the scholarly literature relevant to plausibility. "
futures  plausibility  philosophy  methodology 
march 2018 by tsuomela
Overview: Stories in the Stratosphere – Center for Science and the Imagination
"A collection of science fiction stories, art, and speculative timelines exploring the near future of the stratosphere. From Star Trek and 2001: A Space Odyssey to The Martian, great science fiction stories have shaped how we think about voyages into deep space—but what kinds of gripping confrontations and adventures might unfold in near space, above the clouds? Overview features contributions from renowned science fiction authors David Brin, Tobias Buckell, Brenda Cooper, Carter Scholz, and Karl Schroeder, working in collaboration with illustrators, graphic designers, and experts in fields ranging from human spaceflight and signal processing to law and tourism."
sf  fiction  futures  scenario  scenario-planning 
september 2017 by tsuomela
"The future is murky. Scout evaluates the near term implications of technology to help you de-risk decision making and seize opportunity. We know you’re busy. That’s why we do the hard work for you, publishing original research, analysis and science fiction scenario planning that evaluates the near-term implications of technology, anticipates opportunity, and highlights risk. Through Scout’s content, scenario planning events, and online conversations, we map the future of artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, brain implants, augmented reality, climate damage, genetic augmentation, and other emerging technologies with our community of scientists, technologists, NYT-bestselling authors, and strategic foresight experts."
sf  fiction  scenario-planning  scenario  futures  consulting 
september 2017 by tsuomela
The Venus Project
"The Venus Project proposes an alternative vision of what the future can be if we apply what we already know in order to achieve a sustainable new world civilization. It calls for a straightforward redesign of our culture in which the age-old inadequacies of war, poverty, hunger, debt and unnecessary human suffering are viewed not only as avoidable, but as totally unacceptable. Anything less will result in a continuation of the same catalog of problems inherent in today's world."
futures  futurism  utopia 
march 2017 by tsuomela
CLTC Scenarios – CLTC
"How might individuals function in a world where literally everything they do online will likely be hacked or stolen? How could the proliferation of networked appliances, vehicles, and devices transform what it means to have a “secure” society? What would be the consequences of almost unimaginably powerful algorithms that predict individual human behavior at the most granular scale? These are among the questions considered through a set of five scenarios developed by the Center for Long-Term Cybersecurity (CLTC), a new research and collaboration center founded at UC Berkeley’s School of Information with support from the Hewlett Foundation. These scenarios are not predictions—it’s impossible to make precise predictions about such a complex set of issues. Rather, the scenarios paint a landscape of future possibilities, exploring how emerging and unknown forces could intersect to reshape the relationship between humans and technology—and what it means to be “secure.”"
big-data  ethics  data  research  scenario  scenario-planning  futures  data-curation  online 
may 2016 by tsuomela
The Creepy New Wave of the Internet by Sue Halpern | The New York Review of Books
"The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism by Jeremy Rifkin Palgrave Macmillan, 356 pp., $28.00 Enchanted Objects: Design, Human Desire, and the Internet of Things by David Rose Scribner, 304 pp., $28.00 Age of Context: Mobile, Sensors, Data and the Future of Privacy by Robert Scoble and Shel Israel, with a foreword by Marc Benioff Patrick Brewster, 225 pp., $14.45 (paper) More Awesome Than Money: Four Boys and Their Heroic Quest to Save Your Privacy from Facebook by Jim Dwyer Viking, 374 pp., $27.95"
books  review  internet-of-things  surveillance  privacy  futurism  futures  internet  technology  technology-effects 
november 2014 by tsuomela
A History of the Future in 100 Objects
"What are the 100 objects that future historians will pick to define our 21st century? A javelin thrown by an 'enhanced' Paralympian, far further than any normal human? Virtual reality interrogation equipment used by police forces? The world's most expensive glass of water, mined from the moons of Mars? Or desire modification drugs that fuel a brand new religion? A History of the Future in 100 Objects describes a hundred slices of the future of everything, spanning politics, technology, art, religion, and entertainment. Some of the objects are described by future historians; others through found materials, short stories, or dialogues. All come from a very real future."
future  futures  speculation  material  history 
august 2014 by tsuomela
We need to talk about TED | Benjamin Bratton | Comment is free |
"TED of course stands for Technology, Entertainment, Design, and I'll talk a bit about all three. I Think TED actually stands for: middlebrow megachurch infotainment."
popularize  technology  futurism  futures  critique  innovation 
january 2014 by tsuomela
The Transparent Society Won’t Happen » Cyborgology
"This is just an off-the-cuff post as I do some weekend reading, namely David Brin’s The Transparent Society (1998). I’m curious about the common grand narrative that society has become more transparent and thus will continue to be more so, ultimately creating the state of full transparency, full surveillance, where everything is seen, recorded, and known. I’ve critiqued this line of thought before, as the issue is common in writing about surveillance or privacy, from silly op-eds to pieces by serious scholars like Zygmunt Bauman."
privacy  transparency  surveillance  societies  grand-narrative  futures 
february 2013 by tsuomela
Solve for X
"A forum to encourage and amplify technology-based moonshot thinking and collaboration."
goal-setting  goals  making  futures 
february 2013 by tsuomela
Solve for X
"A forum to encourage and amplify technology-based moonshot thinking and collaboration."
goal-setting  goals  making  futures 
february 2013 by tsuomela
National Intelligence Council - Global Trends
"The National Intelligence Council's (NIC) Global Trends Report engages expertise from outside government on factors of such as globalization, demography and the environment, producing a forward-looking document to aid policymakers in their long term planning on key issues of worldwide importance. Since the first report was released in 1997, the audience for each Global Trends report has expanded, generating more interest and reaching a broader audience that the one that preceded it. A new Global Trends report is published every four years following the U.S. presidential election."
futures  prediction  government  intelligence  america  empire 
january 2013 by tsuomela
Tomgram: Engelhardt, Apocalypse When? | TomDispatch
"Ever since, every few years the National Intelligence Council (NIC), the IC’s “center for long-term strategic analysis,” has been intent on producing a document it calls serially Global Trends [fill in the future year].  The latest edition, out just in time for Barack Obama’s second term, is Global Trends 2030.  Here’s one utterly predictable thing about it: it’s bigger and more elaborate than Global Trends 2025.  "
futures  prediction  government  intelligence  america  empire 
january 2013 by tsuomela
A Chart that Reveals How Science Fiction Futures Changed Over Time
"Once we had our data, we divided it up into works set in the Near Future (0-50 years from the time the work came out), Middle Future (51-500 years from the time the work came out) and Far Future (501 years from the time the work came out)."
sf  future  fiction  time  scale  futures 
may 2012 by tsuomela
The New Aesthetic and The New Writing : Kenneth Goldsmith : Harriet the Blog : The Poetry Foundation
"The Twenty-first century is invisible. We were promised jetpacks but ended up with handlebar moustaches. The surface of things is the wrong place to find the 21st century. Instead, the unseen, the Infrathin—those tiny devices in our pockets or the thick data-haze which permeates the air we breathe — locates us in the present. And in this way, The New Aesthetic is not so much a movement as it is a marker, a moment of  observation which informs us that  culture—along with its means of production and  reception —has radically shifted beneath our feet while we were looking the other way.  As such, The New Aesthetic handily articulates the importance of the new writing, situating it and its modus operandi within broader cultural trends."
new-aesthetic  invisible  writing  culture  futures 
april 2012 by tsuomela
FERN is a global community of foresight students, alumni, faculty, employers, and advocates of graduate foresight education, employment, and research.
futurism  futures  research  professional-association 
april 2012 by tsuomela
Open the Future: The Future Isn't What It Used to Be
"And on and on. If futurists have become almost too good at technological foresight, we remain woefully primitive in our abilities to examine and forecast changes to cultural, political, and social dynamics.

Why is this? There isn't a single cause. "
futurism  futures  prediction  technology  social  change 
february 2012 by tsuomela
Will Joel Garreau
"“There are three scenarios: Heaven – in which our inventions conquer pain, suffering, stupidity, ignorance, and even death. Hell – in which our creations wipe out the human race or all of life on earth within a generation. And Prevail – which argues that these first two scenarios are technodeterministic.

“In the Prevail Scenario, what really matters – as always – is not how many transistors we get to talk to each other, but how many ornery, imaginative, unpredictable human beings we can bring together to arrive at surprising ways to co-evolve with our challenges. Because only in this bottom-up way will humans really control their destinies, rather than have them controlled by our creations.”" Annotated link
futures  futurism  optimism  technology  determinism 
february 2012 by tsuomela
Global Futures Studies
"The Millennium Project was founded in 1996 after a three-year feasibility study with the United Nations University, Smithsonian Institution, Futures Group International, and the American Council for the UNU. It is now an independent non-profit global participatory futures research think tank of futurists, scholars, business planners, and policy makers who work for international organizations, governments, corporations, NGOs, and universities. The Millennium Project manages a coherent and cumulative process that collects and assesses judgments from over 2,500 people since the beginning of the project selected by its 40 Nodes around the world. The work is distilled in its annual "State of the Future", "Futures Research Methodology" series, and special studies."
future  futures  research  scenario  planning  wicked-problems  problem-solving  learning  discussion  collaboration  collective-intelligence  social-science 
august 2011 by tsuomela
Beyond Prediction - Charlie's Diary
"In other words I have a new ambition for my own SF: not as prediction, and not cautionary, either--but aspirational.

The fact is that if I've learned one thing in two years of studying how we think about the future, it's that the one thing that's sorely lacking in the public imagination is positive ideas about where we should be going. We seem to do everything about our future except try to design it. It's a funny thing: nobody ever questions your credentials if you predict doom and destruction. But provide a rosy picture of the future, and people demand that you justify yourself. Increasingly, though, I believe that while warning people of dire possibilities is responsible, providing them with something to aspire to is even more important. The foresight programme has given me a lot of tools to do that in a justifiable way, so I might as well use them."
foresight  futurism  futures  aspiration  sf  literature  writing  prediction  near-far 
july 2011 by tsuomela

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