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tsuomela : futurism   60

The Venus Project
"The Venus Project proposes an alternative vision of what the future can be if we apply what we already know in order to achieve a sustainable new world civilization. It calls for a straightforward redesign of our culture in which the age-old inadequacies of war, poverty, hunger, debt and unnecessary human suffering are viewed not only as avoidable, but as totally unacceptable. Anything less will result in a continuation of the same catalog of problems inherent in today's world."
futures  futurism  utopia 
march 2017 by tsuomela
AHR Form: histories of the future 1. David C. Engerman. Introduction: Histories of the Future and the Futures of History 2. Jenny Andersson. The Great Future Debate and the Struggle for the World 3. Matthew Connelly, Matt Fay, Giulia Ferrini, Micki Kaufman, Will Leonard, Harrison Monsky, Ryan Musto, Taunton Paine, Nicholas Standish, and Lydia Walker. “General, I Have Fought Just as Many Nuclear Wars as You Have”: . Forecasts, Future Scenarios, and the Politics of Armageddon 4. Manu Goswami. Imaginary Futures and Colonial Internationalisms
history  historiography  future  prediction  futurism 
november 2014 by tsuomela
The Creepy New Wave of the Internet by Sue Halpern | The New York Review of Books
"The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism by Jeremy Rifkin Palgrave Macmillan, 356 pp., $28.00 Enchanted Objects: Design, Human Desire, and the Internet of Things by David Rose Scribner, 304 pp., $28.00 Age of Context: Mobile, Sensors, Data and the Future of Privacy by Robert Scoble and Shel Israel, with a foreword by Marc Benioff Patrick Brewster, 225 pp., $14.45 (paper) More Awesome Than Money: Four Boys and Their Heroic Quest to Save Your Privacy from Facebook by Jim Dwyer Viking, 374 pp., $27.95"
books  review  internet-of-things  surveillance  privacy  futurism  futures  internet  technology  technology-effects 
november 2014 by tsuomela
We need to talk about TED | Benjamin Bratton | Comment is free |
"TED of course stands for Technology, Entertainment, Design, and I'll talk a bit about all three. I Think TED actually stands for: middlebrow megachurch infotainment."
popularize  technology  futurism  futures  critique  innovation 
january 2014 by tsuomela
The Future Isn’t What It Used to Be — Editor's Picks — Medium
"The two reasons I’ve just described as to why the future remains as such — profit motive and device isolation — are obviously not entirely unrelated. In fact, they could be considered two sides of the same Bitcoin. However, there’s still value in examining each individually before bringing them together into a unified theory of dystopia."
future  futurism  profit  business  interoperability  technology 
june 2013 by tsuomela
The Abundance Builders | World Future Society
A techno-optimist portrait of the future that still thinks the internet of things, personal fabrication, medicine-on-a-chip, and nanotechnology will 'build abundance for all.'
future  futurism  optimism  nanotechnology  medicine  fabrication  networks  abundance 
july 2012 by tsuomela
amor mundi: The Unbearable Stasis of "Accelerating Change"
"I have proposed that the "accelerating change" crowed about for the last two decades by futurologists in pop religious cadences and by more mainstream and academic New Media commentators in pop psychology and pop sociology cadences has never had any substantial reference apart from the increasing precarity produced by neoliberal looting and destabilization of domestic welfare and global economies -- often facilitated, it is true, by the exploitation of digital trading, marketing, and surveillance networks -- a precarity usually seen and experienced from the vantage of privileged people who either benefit from neoliberal destabilization or who (rightly or wrongly) identify with the beneficiaries of that destabilization. "
singularity  precarity  capitalism  business  politics  futurism 
june 2012 by tsuomela
FERN is a global community of foresight students, alumni, faculty, employers, and advocates of graduate foresight education, employment, and research.
futurism  futures  research  professional-association 
april 2012 by tsuomela
Four Futures
"There are therefore four logical combinations of the two oppositions, resource abundance vs. scarcity and egalitarianism vs. hierarchy. To put things in somewhat vulgar-Marxist terms, the first axis dictates the economic base of the post-capitalist future, while the second pertains to the socio-political superstructure. Two possible futures are socialisms (only one of which I will actually call by that name) while the other two are contrasting flavors of barbarism."
economics  future  capitalism  socialism  freedom  rent  utopia  communism  futurism  post-scarcity 
april 2012 by tsuomela
Open the Future: The Future Isn't What It Used to Be
"And on and on. If futurists have become almost too good at technological foresight, we remain woefully primitive in our abilities to examine and forecast changes to cultural, political, and social dynamics.

Why is this? There isn't a single cause. "
futurism  futures  prediction  technology  social  change 
february 2012 by tsuomela
Will Joel Garreau
"“There are three scenarios: Heaven – in which our inventions conquer pain, suffering, stupidity, ignorance, and even death. Hell – in which our creations wipe out the human race or all of life on earth within a generation. And Prevail – which argues that these first two scenarios are technodeterministic.

“In the Prevail Scenario, what really matters – as always – is not how many transistors we get to talk to each other, but how many ornery, imaginative, unpredictable human beings we can bring together to arrive at surprising ways to co-evolve with our challenges. Because only in this bottom-up way will humans really control their destinies, rather than have them controlled by our creations.”" Annotated link
futures  futurism  optimism  technology  determinism 
february 2012 by tsuomela
Beyond Prediction - Charlie's Diary
"In other words I have a new ambition for my own SF: not as prediction, and not cautionary, either--but aspirational.

The fact is that if I've learned one thing in two years of studying how we think about the future, it's that the one thing that's sorely lacking in the public imagination is positive ideas about where we should be going. We seem to do everything about our future except try to design it. It's a funny thing: nobody ever questions your credentials if you predict doom and destruction. But provide a rosy picture of the future, and people demand that you justify yourself. Increasingly, though, I believe that while warning people of dire possibilities is responsible, providing them with something to aspire to is even more important. The foresight programme has given me a lot of tools to do that in a justifiable way, so I might as well use them."
foresight  futurism  futures  aspiration  sf  literature  writing  prediction  near-far 
july 2011 by tsuomela
Existential threats - Charlie's Diary
"Here's another game it's useful to learn how to play if you want to write near-future science fiction: spot the Existential Threat.

An existential threat (for purposes of this thought experiment) is some phenomenon or activity — it may be natural or may be human-contrived — that threatens, in ascending order of threatliness, the survival of (1) technological civilization, (2) the human species itself, (3) life on Earth, or (4) the universe."
risk  existence  future  sf  literature  futurism  speculation  threats  life 
july 2011 by tsuomela
Looking ahead: scenarios - About Shell
"Shell uses scenarios to explore the future. Our scenarios are not mechanical forecasts. They recognise that people hold beliefs and make choices that can lead down different paths. They reveal different possible futures that are plausible and challenge people’s assumptions."
futurism  future  scenario-planning  scenario  business  energy  environment 
july 2011 by tsuomela
U.S. intelligence and the wisdom of crowds | Bernd Debusmann | Analysis
"t’s officially known as the Forecasting World Events Project and is sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Activity (IARPA), a little-known agency run by a woman, Lisa Porter, who is occasionally described as America’s answer to the fictional Agent Q who designs cutting edge gadgets for James Bond. Much of IARPA’s work is classified, as is its budget. But the forecasting project is not classified. Invitations to participate are now on the Internet.

The idea is to raise five large competing teams of people of diverse backgrounds who will be asked to make predictions on fields that range from politics and global security to business and economics, public health, social and cultural change and science and technology. The project is expected to run for four years and stems from the recognition that expert forecasts are very often wrong."
futurism  predictions  expertise  crowdsourcing  wisdom  distributed  cognition  intelligence  spying 
april 2011 by tsuomela
Vintage Future
Retro images of the future, from various sources.
weblog-individual  tumblelog  images  imagery  futurism  future  history  retro 
february 2011 by tsuomela
Open the Future: Neodicy
The practice of foresight needs within its philosophical underpinnings a similar discourse that treats the fear of dangerous outcomes as a real and meaningful concern, one that can neither be waved away as pessimism nor treated as the sole truth — a "neodicy," if you will. Neodicies would grapple with the very real question of how we can justifiably believe in better futures while still acknowledging the risks that will inevitably arise as our futures unfold. Such a discourse may even allow the rehabilitation of the concept of progress, the idea that as a civilization we do learn from our mistakes, and have the capacity to make our futures better than our past.
future  futurism  futurists  philosophy  fear  neodicy  explanation 
december 2010 by tsuomela
HG Poetics: Retro-Futurism & its Children
Eliot, Pound, Stevens : Medieval, Renaissance, Modern. As if in this trio we have a kind of exemplary recapitulation of the history of the West. Eliot the medieval man : for whom the measure of Man is only to be found in her relationship with God. Eliot's God is in many ways remote & elusive, and he compensates for this by emphasizing the objectivity of dogma, the absolute quality of both the articles of faith & the cultural traditions for which they are the foundation. Pound the Renaissance man : for whom "Man is the measure of all things." In such a situation, calm, peace & stability are elusive, & Pound compensates for this by emphasizing the objectivity of Nature, and the supremacy of the men of inherent power & natural wisdom (Malatesta, the Founding Fathers, Confucius...). Stevens the modern : for whom nature is fundamentally immeasurable & mysterious, and therefore Man-within-nature must imagine her own order (since order is to be found nowhere else).
poetry  poetics  modernism  futurism 
december 2010 by tsuomela
Alvin Toffler warned us about Future Shock, but is this Future Fatigue? For the past decade or so, the only critics of science fiction I pay any attention to, all three of them, have been slyly declaring that the Future is over. I wouldn’t blame anyone for assuming that this is akin to the declaration that history was over, and just as silly. But really I think they’re talking about the capital-F Future, which in my lifetime has been a cult, if not a religion. People my age are products of the culture of the capital-F Future. The younger you are, the less you are a product of that. If you’re fifteen or so, today, I suspect that you inhabit a sort of endless digital Now, a state of atemporality enabled by our increasingly efficient communal prosthetic memory. I also suspect that you don’t know it, because, as anthropologists tell us, one cannot know one’s own culture.
sf  future  futurism  writing  fiction  literature  perception 
june 2010 by tsuomela
The field of futures and forecasting is undergoing a revolution. Since the field was founded in the 1950s, the problems futurists must make sense of have become much more complex. The tools we can use-- and could develop-- to follow trends and forecast possible futures have become more sophisticated. The audiences we try to reach have expanded. The media we use to communicate have changed. And our knowledge of how people and groups actually think about and respond to the future has evolved greatly. The purpose of this blog is to make sense of how the field is responding to these changes, and try see where the field is going-- in effect, to forecast the future of futures
weblog-individual  futurism  prediction 
january 2010 by tsuomela
Charlie's Diary: Designing society for posterity
So. You, and a quarter of a million other folks, have embarked on a 1000-year voyage aboard a hollowed-out asteroid. What sort of governance and society do you think would be most comfortable, not to mention likely to survive the trip without civil war, famine, and reigns of terror?
sf  fiction  space  space-opera  travel  societies  endurance  time  design  futurism  speculation  organizations  institutions  sociology  social  sustainability 
january 2010 by tsuomela
The Uncertain Future
In the Uncertain Future, we let you input the full range of your uncertainties — and we show you the distribution over futures that your current, uncertain beliefs imply. We help you create your own picture of the uncertain future.
future  futurism  prediction  artificial-intelligence  singularity 
december 2009 by tsuomela
What’s your place in the brave new future? - Times Online
Profile of Paul Saffo, technology forecaster at the Institute for the Future.
future  futurism  futurists  profile  biology  optimism  technology 
october 2009 by tsuomela
Futures Thinking: Asking the Question | Open The Future | Fast Company
It's a subtle point, but I tend to find it useful to talk about strategic questions in terms of dilemmas, not problems. Problem implies solution--a fix that resolves the question. Dilemmas are more difficult, typically situations where there are no clearly preferable outcomes (or where each likely outcome carries with it some difficult contingent elements). Futures thinking is less useful when trying to come up with a clear single answer to a particular problem, but can be extremely helpful when trying to determine the best response to a dilemma. The difference is that the "best response" may vary depending upon still-unresolved circumstances; futures thinking helps to illuminate possible trigger points for making a decision.
questions  futurism  methods  strategy 
october 2009 by tsuomela
Idea Index | The Buckminster Fuller Challenge
The Idea Index serves as a tool to educate, network, and help solve problems. As an educational tool, the Index is full of hopeful, exciting ideas and solutions to pressing problems. As a networking tool, the Index allows site visitors to contact the project leaders, leave a constructive and/or encouraging comment and connect with one another. It presents a fully searchable database of socially-responsible initiatives, in all stages of development, in need of further funding and support.
design  sustainability  technology  innovation  ideas  environment  science  resources  contest  futurism  future  fuller  buckminster  visionary 
august 2009 by tsuomela
Relevant History: The Evil Futurists' Guide to World Domination
so now it's time for the next project: The Evil Futurists' Guide to World Domination: How to be Successful, Famous, and Wrong.
futurism  bias  cognition 
july 2009 by tsuomela
Relevant History: Demolishing the future
The New York Times has a piece (Future Vision Banished to the Past") about the likely destruction of Kisho Kurokawa’s Nakagin Capsule Tower, a "rare built example of Japanese Metabolism, a movement whose fantastic urban visions became emblems of the country’s postwar cultural resurgence."
architecture  art  design  futurism 
july 2009 by tsuomela
Open the Future: Pandemonium
Nice little prank on the chaos during the first half of the 20C
future  futurism  scenario  scenario-planning  history  1h20c  world-war-1  world-war-2  20c 
may 2009 by tsuomela
The Future of Science and Technology |
Signtific is a community website for sharing, exploring, creating and discussing signals and forecasts related to disruptive trends in science and technology.
science  futurism  future  collaboration 
january 2009 by tsuomela
Uncertainty and Resilience | P
In my work as a futurist, focusing on the intersection of environment, technology and culture, the concept of resilience has come to play a fundamental role.
future  futurism  resilience  environment  technology  culture  survival 
january 2009 by tsuomela
Overcoming Bias: Coherent Futures
While our future vision should fade into an increasingly vast and uncertain fog of possibilities, far future fans instead fragment into factions, each confident in a very different view of the important future issues. Factions use such different assumptions that they rarely build on each others' work, or even engage others in debate. Only they really "get it" you see, and few others ever seriously consider their arguments. Extreme far-thinking apparently produces extreme disagreement.

Such fragmentation may be acceptable when searching a large space for rare combinations, but it is severely dysfunctional for advising common actions. We instead need to find ways for the few people who actually care about the far future to work together via a division of labor. But how can we do that? Just tell each faction to reconsider that they might be mistaken?
futurism  philosophy  collaboration  community  methods  thinking  thinking-patterns 
december 2008 by tsuomela
Relevant History: NSA, futures, and predicting for the last conflict
The more I've thought about it, the more it strikes me that futurists' practices have evolved in the last forty years to serve a world that is less and less important. This was a world in which small elites-- strategists, CEOs, politicians, people with their hands on nuclear triggers or levers of power-- ran the world (or everyone assumed they did). It was a world in which the future could be considered at particular times-- during strategic reviews or five-year plans. It was a world that we affected through texts, presentations, brainstorming exercises and scenarios.
futurism  practice  culture  methodology 
december 2008 by tsuomela
Futurism: Can Futurism Escape the 1990s?
With the so-called singularity looking farther and farther away, it's time to prepare for the real future. A future where we might not become glamorous, but we might slowly figure out how to prevent a few more diseases that mutate our genomes. Maybe we won't cure death, but we might cure a few kinds of cancer. Maybe we won't have implantable mobile phones, but we might figure out how to bring most of the African continent online.

I guess what I'm saying is that the future might look more like a person in jeans rather than a hottie in face jewelry. Dream about the hottie all you want, but plan to wear jeans.
future  futurism  sf  singularity  speculation  nostalgia 
october 2008 by tsuomela
Open the Future: Resilience and the Next Disaster
Here are my key elements of a diverse system -- Diversity, Redundancy, Decentralization, Collaboration, Transparency, Openness, Fail Gracefully, Flexibility, Foresight
futurism  future  resiliance  diversity  system  complexity  policy  psychology  disaster 
october 2008 by tsuomela

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