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Beyond the Counterculture: Rethinking College in the ’60s - Los Angeles Review of Books
"Going to College in the Sixties By John R. Thelin Published 11.15.2018 Johns Hopkins University Press 224 Pages"
book  review  academia  history  1960s  growth 
may 2019 by tsuomela
Long-term variations in the aging of scientific literature: From exponential growth to steady-state science (1900–2004) - Larivière - 2007 - Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology - Wiley Online Library
"Despite a very large number of studies on the aging and obsolescence of scientific literature, no study has yet measured, over a very long time period, the changes in the rates at which scientific literature becomes obsolete. This article studies the evolution of the aging phenomenon and, in particular, how the age of cited literature has changed over more than 100 years of scientific activity. It shows that the average and median ages of cited literature have undergone several changes over the period. Specifically, both World War I and World War II had the effect of significantly increasing the age of the cited literature. The major finding of this article is that contrary to a widely held belief, the age of cited material has risen continuously since the mid-1960s. In other words, during that period, researchers were relying on an increasingly old body of literature. Our data suggest that this phenomenon is a direct response to the steady-state dynamics of modern science that followed its exponential growth; however, we also have observed that online preprint archives such as arXiv have had the opposite effect in some subfields."
science  literature  citations  bibliometrics  history  growth  20c  scholarly-communication 
november 2014 by tsuomela
Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems
"The planet’s large, growing, and overconsuming human population, especially the increasing affluent component, is rapidly eroding many of the Earth’s natural ecosystems. However, society’s only real policy lever to reduce the human population humanely is to encourage lower per capita fertility. How long might fertility reduction take to make a meaningful impact? We examined various scenarios for global human population change to the year 2100 by adjusting fertility and mortality rates (both chronic and short-term interventions) to determine the plausible range of outcomes. Even one-child policies imposed worldwide and catastrophic mortality events would still likely result in 5–10 billion people by 2100. Because of this demographic momentum, there are no easy ways to change the broad trends of human population size this century."
population  world  growth  future  demography  disaster  catastrophe 
november 2014 by tsuomela
World population stabilization unlikely this century
"The United Nations (UN) recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, the world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion people, will increase to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range from the traditional UN high and low variants. Much of the increase is expected to happen in Africa, in part due to higher fertility rates and a recent slowdown in the pace of fertility decline. Also, the ratio of working-age people to older people is likely to decline substantially in all countries, even those that currently have young populations."
population  world  growth  future  demography 
november 2014 by tsuomela
Corporate America Hasn’t Been Disrupted | FiveThirtyEight
"The U.S. economy, in other words, has become less flexible, more risk-averse and slower to react to changing circumstances. Maybe it could use a little disruption."
economics  entrepreneurship  future  growth  technology  disruption 
august 2014 by tsuomela
Robots and Robber Barons -
"Wait — are we really back to talking about capital versus labor? Isn’t that an old-fashioned, almost Marxist sort of discussion, out of date in our modern information economy? Well, that’s what many people thought; for the past generation discussions of inequality have focused overwhelmingly not on capital versus labor but on distributional issues between workers, either on the gap between more- and less-educated workers or on the soaring incomes of a handful of superstars in finance and other fields. But that may be yesterday’s story."
economics  technology  growth  capital  capitalism  labor  marx 
december 2012 by tsuomela
Dissent Magazine - Online Features - Universities and the Urban Growth Machine -
"With mortgage and other credit markets still in the doldrums, universities have become a very attractive option for investors looking for high returns on debt-financed growth. Money capital has poured into construction bonds, student loans, and other financial instruments spun out of the tuition bubble. When universities become the apple of the financier’s eye, they begin to generate debt in every direction, as I have shown here. NYU’s own long-term debt is a hefty $2.6 billion, far outpacing that of other comparable urban universities: Columbia ($1.3 billion), USC ($0.973 billion), and Penn ($1.7 billion)."
university  college  debt  money  economics  growth  finance  academia  corporate 
october 2012 by tsuomela
Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds
"This paper raises basic questions about the process of economic growth. It questions the assumption, nearly universal since Solow’s seminal contributions of the 1950s, that economic growth is a continuous process that will persist forever. There was virtually no growth before 1750, and thus there is no guarantee that growth will continue indefinitely. Rather, the paper suggests that the rapid progress made over the past 250 years could well turn out to be a unique episode in human history. The paper is only about the United States and views the future from 2007 while pretending that the financial crisis did not happen. Its point of departure is growth in per-capita real GDP in the frontier country since 1300, the U.K. until 1906 and the U.S. afterwards. Growth in this frontier gradually accelerated after 1750, reached a peak in the middle of the 20th century, and has been slowing down since. The paper is about “how much further could the frontier growth rate decline?” "
economics  growth  econometrics  future  capitalism  innovation 
october 2012 by tsuomela
Post Growth Institute | The End of Bigger. The Start Of Better
Post Growth is a catalyst for identifying, inspiring and implementing new approaches to global well-being.

We are an international network of people committed to tackling the cause, rather than the symptoms, of a myriad of social and environmental problems to create a positive world future that does not depend on economic growth.
economics  heterodoxy  post-growth  growth  activism 
july 2012 by tsuomela
Breakthrough Journal: Blog : The Creative Destruction of Climate Economics
"In the 70 years that have passed since Joseph Schumpeter coined the term "creative destruction," economists have struggled awkwardly with how to think about growth and innovation. Born of the low-growth agricultural economies of 18th Century Europe, the dismal science to this day remains focused on the question of how to most efficiently distribute scarce resources, not on how to create new ones -- this despite two centuries of rapid economic growth driven by disruptive technologies, from the steam engine to electricity to the Internet."
economics  innovation  technology  growth  climate-change  environment  carbon-tax 
june 2012 by tsuomela
Roger Pielke Jr.'s Blog: R
"During the 1950s and 1960s, advocates for government investments in science and technology (mainly basic research at universities) pulled off a remarkable coup. They successfully integrated conceptions of "basic research" with a linear model of innovation, making R
economics  innovation  technology  growth  wealth  research  development  government  funding 
june 2012 by tsuomela
Study Hacks » Blog Archive » The Father of Deliberate Practice Disowns Flow
"In other words, the feeling of flow is different than the feeling of getting better. If all you seek is flow, then you’re not going to get better. There is no avoiding the deliberate strain of real improvement. "
practice  deliberate  flow  psychology  growth  learning 
april 2012 by tsuomela
Book Review: David Harvey’s Rebel Cities « Ph.D. Octopus
"David Harvey’s new book, Rebel Cities, is the latest entry in his life-long interest in uncovering the intersection between capitalism and urbanization. It’s a collection of previously published, but updated and revised, essays and articles. They are all particularly important to our understanding of both the long fall out of 2008’s economic crash and the rise of urban revolts in Egypt, Greece, New York and elsewhere. "
book  review  urban  urbanism  cities  marxism  capitalism  economics  growth  accumulation  creative-class 
april 2012 by tsuomela
Hall’s Law: The Nineteenth Century Prequel to Moore’s Law
"Interchangeability of parts breaks the coupling between scaling and manufacturing capacity by substituting supply-chain limits for manufacturing limits. For a rifle, you can build up a stockpile of spare parts in peace time, and deliver an uninterrupted supply of parts to match the breakdown rate. There is no need to predict which part might break down in order to meaningfully anticipate and prepare. You can also distribute production optimally (close to raw material sources or low-cost talent for instance), since there is no need to locate craftsmen near the point-of-use.

So when interchangeability was finally achieved and had diffused through the economy as standard practice (a process that took about 65 years), demand-management complexity moved to the supply chain, and most problems could be solved by distributing inventories appropriately." Annotated link
history  economic  technology  innovation  manufacturing  interchangeable  industrial  18c  19c  country(UnitedStates)  country(GreatBritain)  military  growth  revolution  capitalism  capital  design 
april 2012 by tsuomela
Overcoming Bias : Limits To Growth
"Current growth rates simply cannot continue at familiar levels for ten thousand more years. We’ll eventually learn everything worth knowing about how to arrange atoms, and growth in available atoms will be limited by the speed of light."
future  growth  welfare 
march 2012 by tsuomela
Flattened « how to save the world
"Fearful and flattened. That’s what our industrial growth culture wants and needs of its members, now that it is a global monoculture strained to its absolute limits. Unless exercised in a culturally-approved way (such as “competitive” sports, wars, or abuse of one’s work or social “subordinates”), or locked away behind closed doors where there is plausible deniability, anger is now met with quick and violent suppression. Peaceful but angry demonstrations are met with heavily-armed stormtroopers. Anyone who even discusses angry resistance to the ecological desolation of our planet, to the theft and pillaging of Earth’s resources for the benefit of a tiny rapacious 1%, or to wars over oil or ideology, is branded a “terrorist” and subject to “disappearance”, extraordinary rendition to torture prisons, and/or indefinite imprisonment.

Likewise, feelings of debilitating grief, which I think are perfectly normal in our terrible world, have been pathologized and are now treated with large doses of anti-depressants or, failing that, ostracism and/or incarceration or other institutionalization. Our industrial culture teaches us to self-victimize. We are to blame, we are told, for our own unemployment and poverty (due to personal laziness or lack of moral fibre). We are to blame, too, for our own chronic illnesses (due to our poor eating and exercising habits). Suicide is, of course, treated not only as a sign of irresponsibility, but as a crime."
emotion  fear  grief  growth  capitalism  culture  future  depression 
february 2012 by tsuomela
Overcoming Bias : The End of Possibility
"Yes, new tech have recently given us each more options, but this is mainly because new tech tends to make us each richer. Wealth gives options. If our descendants are, as I suspect, much poorer than we, they may well have fewer options than us. And eventually economic growth and tech innovation must slow to a crawl. Our finite universe simply cannot continue our exponential growth rates for a million years. For trillions of years thereafter, possibilities will be known and fixed, and for each person rather limited."
future  imagination  vision  options  choice  wealth  economics  growth 
october 2011 by tsuomela
Porter's Diamond of National Advantage
"Classical theories of international trade propose that comparative advantage resides in the factor endowments that a country may be fortunate enough to inherit. Factor endowments include land, natural resources, labor, and the size of the local population.

Michael E. Porter argued that a nation can create new advanced factor endowments such as skilled labor, a strong technology and knowledge base, government support, and culture. Porter used a diamond shaped diagram as the basis of a framework to illustrate the determinants of national advantage. This diamond represents the national playing field that countries establish for their industries."
economics  comparative  advantage  factors  growth  national  nation-state 
july 2011 by tsuomela
Which technologies get better faster?
"Some forms of technology — think, for example, of computer chips — are on a fast track to constant improvements, while others evolve much more slowly. Now, a new study by researchers at MIT and other institutions shows that it may be possible to predict which technologies are likeliest to advance rapidly, and therefore may be worth more investment in research and resources."
technology  technology-cycles  evolution  complexity  growth  efficiency 
june 2011 by tsuomela
A bit more on hedonic adjustments | Ian Welsh
"And that bit about an Ipad2 being twice as powerful, as if that means it has twice as much utility, is why hedonics are complete bullshit. I have a computer today that is so much faster than the computer I had 10 years ago that that computer is a snail in comparison. What do I do with it? Write, go on the internet, play games, use spreadsheets, basically. At none of those things is it all that much better than my computer in 2001. The graphics in my games are a lot better, but they aren’t better games because of it (Deus Ex is better than anything I’ve played this year, and it was published in the late 90s.) My word processing software is not enough better that I notice, the spreadsheet is essentially identical, the browser is certainly better, but not that much better. This computer just does not have that much more utility than my old one."
economics  inflation  hedonism  statistics  growth 
april 2011 by tsuomela
Steven Pearlstein - Key to job growth, equality is boosting tradable sector of economy
"In short, what ails the U.S. economy is primarily a structural problem, not a cyclical one that can be effectively dealt with through the magic of short-term Keynesian stimulus. Unless we find a way to dramatically increase the size and scope of the tradable sector, Spence says, we're in for an extended period of slow job growth and rising inequality. And make no mistake: at the heart of this problem is globalization."
economics  america  econometrics  jobs  growth  industry  industrial  policy  government  globalization 
march 2011 by tsuomela
How to get to 100 percent renewables globally by 2050 | Grist
News post on an optimistic report on changing world energy supplies. We just need to divert 3% of world GDP to efficiency, renewables, and infrastructure. Whew!
energy  environment  infrastructure  reform  change  climate  global-warming  electric-grid  electricity  model  future  growth  optimism  efficiency 
march 2011 by tsuomela
Coyle, D.: The Economics of Enough: How to Run the Economy as If the Future Matters.
"Creating a sustainable economy--having enough to be happy without cheating the future--won't be easy. But The Economics of Enough starts a profoundly important conversation about how we can begin--and the first steps we need to take."
economics  sustainability  environment  climate  future  growth 
march 2011 by tsuomela
Egypt's Revolution: Coming to an Economy Near You - Umair Haque - Harvard Business Review
Now, I don't think Americans will take to the streets to oust their government. The challenge of the democratic, developed world is a quieter rebellion: against a bankruptcy not just of the pocketbook, but of meaning. It's not to take a stand against a dictator, but to take a stand against an unenlightened, nihilistic, hyperconsumerist, soul-suckingly unfulfilling, lethally short-termist ethos that inflicts real and relentless damage on people, society, the natural world, and future generations.
future  economics  growth  consumerism  rant 
february 2011 by tsuomela
Welcome to the Age of Dilemma - Umair Haque - Harvard Business Review
"But what if all the dilemmas above are really different faces of the same beast? It's a deeper dilemma that I call, in my book, the Capitalists' Dilemma. We've reached a place where generating more of the same old "prosperity" requires more and more economic harm — real and relentless damage to people, communities, society, nature, and the future, whether in the form of McJobs, rising inequality, chronic mass unemployment, declining trust, or a missing sense of personal meaning."
capitalism  free-markets  neoliberalism  future  growth  economics  prosperity 
february 2011 by tsuomela
Laurence Chandy and Geoffrey Gertz - Missing poverty's new reality: There's a lot less of it
"We estimate that between 2005 and 2010, nearly half a billion people escaped extreme hardship, as the total number of the world's poor fell to 878 million people. Never before in history have so many people been lifted out of poverty in such a short period. The U.N. Millennium Development Goals established the target of halving the rate of global poverty between 1990 and 2015
poverty  global  economics  growth  econometrics  2010s  measurement 
january 2011 by tsuomela
PLoS ONE: Urban Scaling and Its Deviations: Revealing the Structure of Wealth, Innovation and Crime across Cities
" Typically, linear per capita indicators are used to characterize and rank cities. However, these implicitly ignore the fundamental role of nonlinear agglomeration integral to the life history of cities. As such, per capita indicators conflate general nonlinear effects, common to all cities, with local dynamics, specific to each city, failing to provide direct measures of the impact of local events and policy. Agglomeration nonlinearities are explicitly manifested by the superlinear power law scaling of most urban socioeconomic indicators with population size, all with similar exponents (1.15). As a result larger cities are disproportionally the centers of innovation, wealth and crime, all to approximately the same degree. We use these general urban laws to develop new urban metrics that disentangle dynamics at different scales and provide true measures of local urban performance. "
cities  urban  economics  statistics  powerlaw  growth  model  mathematics  econometrics  research  complexity 
january 2011 by tsuomela
Outstanding, Superlinear Cities - Science News
"In an article this month in PLoS ONE, Bettencourt and his team created a way to measure how exceptional cities are by comparing their characteristics with what mathematics would predict for their size. The team then ranked the exceptionality of 300 U.S. cities based on personal incomes, gross metropolitan product (GMP), number of patents and number of violent crimes. "
cities  urban  economics  statistics  econometrics  mathematics  model  growth  powerlaw 
january 2011 by tsuomela
Dana Blankenhorn: Moore's Law of Renewable Energy
To the popular mind, all these other changes are just as much Moore's Law as his original silicon conception. Moore's Law has become a shorthand for the computerized world all around us, and for our (correct) assumption that it's just going to get better and better, faster and faster.

So how does this apply to renewable energy?
energy  abundance  future  growth  solar 
december 2010 by tsuomela
Nothing Grows Forever | Mother Jones
Peter Victor is an economist who has been asking a heretical question: Can the Earth support endless growth?
economics  growth  future  ecology 
july 2010 by tsuomela
The political genius of supply-side economics | Martin Wolf's Exchange |
How did supply-side economics bring these benefits? First, it allowed conservatives to ignore deficits. They could argue that, whatever the impact of the tax cuts in the short run, they would bring the budget back into balance, in the longer run. Second, the theory gave an economic justification – the argument from incentives - for lowering taxes on politically important supporters. Finally, if deficits did not, in fact, disappear, conservatives could fall back on the “starve the beast” theory: deficits would create a fiscal crisis that would force the government to cut spending and even destroy the hated welfare state.
politics  deficit  federal  government  tax-cuts  supply-side  economics  growth  republicans 
july 2010 by tsuomela
Real Prosperity Doesn't Come From Stimulus — Or Austerity - Umair Haque - Harvard Business Review
Umair Haque tries to coin some new terms. "Prosperians believe that the real challenge of the 21st century isn't kickstarting "growth" and churning out more "product" — but reconceiving what is growing, how it grows, and why it grows. The prosperian agenda is redefining prosperity, so it's more meaningful, authentic, and durable. It's not about just restarting the same old industrial-age engine of GDP, but building a better one."
economics  growth  future  austerity 
july 2010 by tsuomela
Rick Bookstaber: Does Financial Innovation promote Economic Growth?
Do innovative products promote growth by increasing market efficiency?

If we were in an Arrow-Debreu world, the answer would be yes, since these products will help span that space of the states of nature. But the incentives behind innovation move in the other direction. The objective in the design and marketing of innovative products is not market efficiency, but profitability for the banks. And market efficiency is the bane of profitability.
economics  wall-street  markets  innovation  growth  information-asymmetry  banking  financial-engineering 
november 2009 by tsuomela
Op-Ed Columnist - More Poetry, Please -
I’ve always believed that Mr. Obama was elected because a majority of Americans fear that we’re becoming a declining great power. Everything from our schools to our energy and transportation systems are falling apart and in need of reinvention and reinvigoration. And what people want most from Washington today is nation-building at home.
america  reform  politics  about(BarackObama)  narrative  story-telling  nation-building  growth  great-power 
november 2009 by tsuomela
PIMCO - Midnight Candles Gross November
Let me start out by summarizing a long-standing PIMCO thesis: The U.S. and most other G-7 economies have been significantly and artificially influenced by asset price appreciation for decades. Stock and home prices went up – then consumers liquefied and spent the capital gains either by borrowing against them or selling outright. Growth, in other words, was influenced on the upside by leverage, securitization, and the belief that wealth creation was a function of asset appreciation as opposed to the production of goods and services.
economics  asset-prices  growth  price  history  wall-street 
october 2009 by tsuomela
The GDP Mirage - BusinessWeek
By overlooking cuts in research and development, product design, and worker training, GDP is greatly overstating the economy's strength
gdp  measurement  research  business  growth  economics  crisis  technology  recession 
october 2009 by tsuomela
Stumbling and Mumbling: Investment, growth & animal spirits
should be concerned by today’s news of a collapse in capital spending because “investment is the driver of long term growth.”
This sounds sensible. But it raises a problem, shown by my chart. It plots the share of business investment in GDP, measured in current prices, against annualized GDP growth over the following five years.
There’s a negative relationship between the two. High investment leads to slow growth, and low investment to high growth.
growth  economics  investment  business  statistics 
october 2009 by tsuomela
Open Left:: "Energy Determines Biological Success"
Links to a number of Richard Heinberg videos on peak energy.
environment  energy  growth  limits  peak-oil  video 
august 2009 by tsuomela
New Rules for the New Economy
increasing returns - a good definition of a network is organic behavior in a technological matrix
definition  networks  feedback  positive  growth 
june 2009 by tsuomela
CARLOTA PEREZ.ORG - Carlota Perez Official Website
author of Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages.
people  economics  development  academic  bubble  growth  technology 
april 2009 by tsuomela
Irving Wladawsky-Berger: A Historical Perspective on the Financial Crisis
Over the past couple of centuries years, we have had a technology revolution every 40 - 60 years, starting with the Industrial Revolution in 1771....
Each such revolution takes about half a century to spread around the world, and is characterized by two distinct periods: installation and deployment.
history  technology  technology-cycles  economics  growth  future  crisis  diffusion 
april 2009 by tsuomela
Power-Biased Technological Change and the Rise in Earnings Inequality
New information and communication technologies, we argue, have been ‘power- biased’: they have allowed firms to monitor low-skill workers more closely, thus reducing the power of these workers. An efficiency wage model shows that ‘power-biased technical change’ in this sense may generate rising wage inequality accompanied by an increase in both the effort and unemployment of low-skill workers. The skill-biased technological change hypothesis, on the other hand, others no explanation for the ob- served increase in effort.
money  power  job  career  work  labor  technology  technology-effects  skills  growth  economics 
march 2009 by tsuomela
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