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tsuomela : long-term   11

The wolf moose project on Isle Royale | AAAS MemberCentral
"n 1958, a small group of wildlife biologists first began studying this predator prey system, using the island's seclusion to study population dynamics as new creatures rarely make it to the island and fewer leave. For more than 50 years, these biologists have been continuously studying the island's creatures by enduring the harsh cold and snow and venturing out to survey the island by helicopter. Their findings have changed how we view wolves as random killers, have given unique insight into the social dynamics of predators and are helping us understand the causes for arthritis."
science  sts  long-term  research  projects 
march 2012 by tsuomela
Stumbling and Mumbling: In defence of short-termism
"What’s more, short-termism can protect us from two cognitive biases.
One is overconfidence. Given that the long-term future is unknowable, investment in long-term projects is often founded upon overconfidence about one’s predictions
long-term  short-term  time  decision-making  politics  markets 
october 2011 by tsuomela
Oxford University Press: Historical Thesaurus of the Oxford English Dictionary: Christian Kay
A 40-year project in the making, the Historical Thesaurus of the Oxford English Dictionary is the first historical thesaurus to include almost the entire vocabulary of English, from Old English to the present day. Conceived and compiled by the English Language Department of the University of Glasgow, the Historical Thesaurus of the Oxford English Dictionary is a groundbreaking analysis of the historical inventory of English, allowing users to find words connected in meaning throughout the history of the language.
book  reference  publisher  thesaurus  long-term  linguistics  etymology  history 
july 2009 by tsuomela
What Makes Us Happy? - The Atlantic (June 2009)
For 72 years, researchers at Harvard have been examining this question, following 268 men who entered college in the late 1930s through war, career, marriage and divorce, parenthood and grandparenthood, and old age. Here, for the first time, a journalist gains access to the archive of one of the most comprehensive longitudinal studies in history. Its contents, as much literature as science, offer profound insight into the human condition—and into the brilliant, complex mind of the study’s longtime director, George Vaillant.
psychology  happiness  longitudinal  long-term  study 
may 2009 by tsuomela
Open the Future: The End of Long-Term Thinking
Jamais Cascio changes from long-term thinking to "multigenerational" thinking.
future  language  generation  generational-analysis  intergenerational  ethics  long-term 
march 2009 by tsuomela
Op-Ed Columnist - Obama Riding the Wave -
"My job is to help the country take the long view — to make sure that not only are we getting out of this immediate fix, but we’re not repeating the same cycle of bubble and bust over and over again.." quoting Obama.
politics  commentary  long-term  politicians  rhetoric  obama  president  american 
february 2009 by tsuomela
Economic View - Social Changes, Not All Bad, Accompany Recessions -
by Tyler Cowen. Some possible non-economic effects of recessions - less praise for wealth, better health, less risktaking by currently young generations. Plus links to a couple of academic papers for support.
psychology  economics  culture  perception  wealth  risk  long-term  generational-analysis 
february 2009 by tsuomela
Robert Reich's Blog | Talking Points Memo | The Real Fight Starts After the Stimulus is Enacted
Those who support the stimulus as a desperate measure to arrest the downward plunge in the business cycle might be called cyclists. Others, including me, see the stimulus as the first step toward addressing deep structural flaws in the economy. We are the structuralists. These two camps are united behind the current stimulus, but may not be for long.
economics  politics  structure  long-term  income-distribution 
february 2009 by tsuomela
Open the Future: Long-Run vs. Long-Lag
Here's a simple example of a long-run problem: You're driving a car in a straight line, and the map indicates a cliff in the distance. You can change direction now, or you can change direction as the cliff looms, and either way you avoid the cliff. If you know that there's a turn-off ahead, you may keep driving towards the cliff until you get to your preferred exit.

The practice of waiting until the long-term becomes the near-term is less effective, however, for the other kind of distant problem: Let's call them "long-lag problems." With long-lag problems, there's a significant distance between cause and effect, for both the problem and any attempted solution. The available time to head-off the problem doesn't stretch from now until when the problem manifests
problem-solving  wicked-problems  future  long-term  long-lag  psychology 
october 2008 by tsuomela

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