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tsuomela : model   67

Data Curation — Council on Library and Information Resources
"Sayeed Choudhury, associate dean for research data management at Johns Hopkins University (JHU) and leader of the Data Conservancy, discusses the "stack model" for data management employed by JHU and discusses the model's components—storage, archiving, preservation, and curation—in the following video."
data-curation  model  service  libraries  curation  preservation  archive  storage 
may 2016 by tsuomela
Notes on Identity, Institutions, and Uprisings | Whimsley
"Fin­ish­ing up what I said I’d fin­ish a cou­ple of months ago, this is a shorter ver­sion of a paper on “Iden­tity, Insti­tu­tions, and Upris­ings” with less math­e­mat­ics, no ref­er­ences (see the link above) and more opin­ion­at­ing."
online  behavior  revolution  social-movement  identity  model 
march 2013 by tsuomela
The Leviathan Model
"We propose an opinion dynamics model that combines processes of vanity and opinion propagation. The interactions take place between randomly chosen pairs. During an interaction, the agents propagate their opinions about themselves and about other people they know. Moreover, each individual is subject to vanity: if her interlocutor seems to value her highly, then she increases her opinion about this interlocutor. On the contrary she tends to decrease her opinion about those who seem to undervalue her. The combination of these dynamics with the hypothesis that the opinion propagation is more efficient when coming from highly valued individuals, leads to different patterns when varying the parameters. For instance, for some parameters the positive opinion links between individuals generate a small world network. In one of the patterns, absolute dominance of one agent alternates with a state of generalised distrust, where all agents have a very low opinion of all the others (including themselves). We provide some explanations of the mechanisms behind these emergent behaviors and finally propose a discussion about their interest. "
agent-based-model  complexity  model  social  opinion  self-perception  networks 
february 2013 by tsuomela
Structure Strangeness: What is the probability of a 9/11-size terrorist attack?
Sunday is the 10-year anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. As a commemoration of the day, I'm going to investigate answers to a very simple question: what is the probability of a 9/11-size or larger terrorist attack?
terrorism  probability  complexity  prediction  model  social 
september 2011 by tsuomela
Bruno Latour, Some Experiments in Art and Politics / Journal / e-flux
"So how can we have both networks and spheres? How do we avoid the pitfalls of a globalization that has no real globe in which to place everything? In a work presented at the Venice Biennale in 2009, Tomas Saraceno provided a great, and no doubt unintended, metaphor for social theory. In an entire room inside the Biennale’s main pavilion, Galaxies Forming along Filaments, Like Droplets along the Strands of a Spider’s Web (2008) consisted of carefully mounted elastic connectors that produced the shape of networks and spheres."
art  networks  philosophy  sociology  model  visualization  commons 
march 2011 by tsuomela
A simple model of disagreement among economists — Crooked Timber
"So what does this predict? Like Blinder’s aphorism, it suggests that we will observe a broad empirical correlation between (a) the extent of disagreement among economists, and (b) the involvement of economists in political disputes. ‘Eat your greens’ propositions that are popular among economists, but more or less equally uncongenial to all political actors in a given system will, as in Blinder’s formulation, be systematically ignored. But economists’ influence will not be particularly high when they disagree with each other, since different economists arguing for different sides of the political debate will at least partially cancel each other out. It will be far higher on those rare and fleeting occasions when economists unite in favor of the one or the other side actively participating in a political debate."
economics  model  behavior  incentives  politics 
march 2011 by tsuomela
How to get to 100 percent renewables globally by 2050 | Grist
News post on an optimistic report on changing world energy supplies. We just need to divert 3% of world GDP to efficiency, renewables, and infrastructure. Whew!
energy  environment  infrastructure  reform  change  climate  global-warming  electric-grid  electricity  model  future  growth  optimism  efficiency 
march 2011 by tsuomela
PLoS ONE: Urban Scaling and Its Deviations: Revealing the Structure of Wealth, Innovation and Crime across Cities
" Typically, linear per capita indicators are used to characterize and rank cities. However, these implicitly ignore the fundamental role of nonlinear agglomeration integral to the life history of cities. As such, per capita indicators conflate general nonlinear effects, common to all cities, with local dynamics, specific to each city, failing to provide direct measures of the impact of local events and policy. Agglomeration nonlinearities are explicitly manifested by the superlinear power law scaling of most urban socioeconomic indicators with population size, all with similar exponents (1.15). As a result larger cities are disproportionally the centers of innovation, wealth and crime, all to approximately the same degree. We use these general urban laws to develop new urban metrics that disentangle dynamics at different scales and provide true measures of local urban performance. "
cities  urban  economics  statistics  powerlaw  growth  model  mathematics  econometrics  research  complexity 
january 2011 by tsuomela
Outstanding, Superlinear Cities - Science News
"In an article this month in PLoS ONE, Bettencourt and his team created a way to measure how exceptional cities are by comparing their characteristics with what mathematics would predict for their size. The team then ranked the exceptionality of 300 U.S. cities based on personal incomes, gross metropolitan product (GMP), number of patents and number of violent crimes. "
cities  urban  economics  statistics  econometrics  mathematics  model  growth  powerlaw 
january 2011 by tsuomela
The Instability of Moderation -
by Paul Krugman.
"But watching the failure of policy over the past three years, I find myself believing, more and more, that this failure has deep roots – that we were in some sense doomed to go through this. Specifically, I now suspect that the kind of moderate economic policy regime Brad and I both support – a regime that by and large lets markets work, but in which the government is ready both to rein in excesses and fight slumps – is inherently unstable. It’s something that can last for a generation or so, but not much longer."
crisis  recession  fiscal-policy  policy  economics  instability  stability  moderation  model 
november 2010 by tsuomela
Interview with Laurence Meyer :: 10.06.2010 :: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
So I think we have two kinds of modeling traditions. First there is the classic tradition...This is the beginning of modern macro-econometric model building. That’s the kind of models that I would use, the kind of models that folks at the Board use.
There’s also another tradition that began to build up in the late seventies to early eighties—the real business cycle or neoclassical models. It’s what’s taught in graduate schools. It’s the only kind of paper that can be published in journals. It is called “modern macroeconomics.”
Those models are a diversion. They haven’t been helpful at all at understanding anything that would be relevant to a monetary policymaker or fiscal policymaker. So we’d better come back to, and begin with as our base, these classic macro-econometric models. We don’t need a revolution.
econometrics  economics  history  model  modeling 
october 2010 by tsuomela
How We Make Knowledge About Climate Change » American Scientist
A VAST MACHINE: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming. Paul N. Edwards. xxviii + 518 pp. The MIT Press, 2010.
book  review  climate  climatology  meteorology  science  sts  epistemology  knowledge  model 
october 2010 by tsuomela
Updating, part 1: When can you change your mind? The binary model - Less Wrong
To find out, I built a model of updating in response to the opinions of others.  It did, eventually, show that Bayesians improve their collective opinions by updating in response to the opinions of other Bayesians.  But this turns out not to depend on them satisfying the conditions of Aumann's theorem, or on doing Bayesian updating.  It depends only on a very simple condition, established at the start of the simulation.  Can you guess what it is?
bayes  model  agent-based-model  rationality 
september 2010 by tsuomela
[1008.5166] Network Archaeology: Uncovering Ancient Networks from Present-day Interactions
Often questions arise about old or extinct networks. What proteins interacted in a long-extinct ancestor species of yeast? Who were the central players in the social network 3 years ago? Our ability to answer such questions has been limited by the unavailability of past versions of networks. To overcome these limitations, we propose several algorithms for reconstructing a network's history of growth given only the network as it exists today and a generative model by which the network is believed to have evolved.
network-analysis  networks  model  mathematics  archaeology  history  influence 
september 2010 by tsuomela
[1009.0240] Modeling Dynamical Influence in Human Interaction Patterns
We present a new perspective, together with a model and algorithm, on a well-observed property of many social phenomena: the influence strength between individuals changes over time (e.g., friendships break and reform). We propose an unsupervised generative switching model that simultaneously captures the system dynamics as the outcome of both (i) the influence between individuals (each modeled as an HMM), and (ii) the dynamics of the influence itself. We describe here a variational Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. In our experiments, we illustrate applications of detecting structural change, predicting turn taking by analyzing a real group discussion behavior dataset and understanding flu influence patterns between US states. Results demonstrate that our approach is a strong alternative for modeling complex interacting social systems.
social  interaction  influence  model  mathematics  probability  statistics  markov-chain 
september 2010 by tsuomela
The evolution of eusociality : Nature : Nature Publishing Group
Eusociality, in which some individuals reduce their own lifetime reproductive potential to raise the offspring of others, underlies the most advanced forms of social organization and the ecologically dominant role of social insects and humans. For the past four decades kin selection theory, based on the concept of inclusive fitness, has been the major theoretical attempt to explain the evolution of eusociality. Here we show the limitations of this approach. We argue that standard natural selection theory in the context of precise models of population structure represents a simpler and superior approach, allows the evaluation of multiple competing hypotheses, and provides an exact framework for interpreting empirical observations.
evolution  cooperation  altruism  eusocial  natural-selection  model 
august 2010 by tsuomela
[1007.2774] Where is everybody? -- Wait a moment ... New approach to the Fermi paradox
The Fermi Paradox is the apparent contradiction between the high probability extraterrestrial civilizations' existence and the lack of contact with such civilizations. In general, solutions to Fermi's paradox come down to either estimation of Drake equation parameters i.e. our guesses about the potential number of extraterrestrial civilizations or simulation of civilizations development in the universe. We consider a new type of cellular automata, that allows to analyze Fermi paradox
fermi-paradox  simulation  celluar-automata  model 
july 2010 by tsuomela
Technology Review: Blogs: arXiv blog: The Fermi Paradox, Phase Changes and Intergalactic Colonisation
Bezsudnov and Snarskii even derive an inequality that a universe must satisfy to become civilised. This, they say, is analogous to the famous Drake equation which attempts to quantify the number of other contactable civilisations in the universe right now.
astrobiology  astronomy  extraterrestrial  intelligence  fermi-paradox  simulation  celluar-automata  model 
july 2010 by tsuomela
EconModel Home Page
Twenty-One of the most important models in economics (micro and macro!) are included in the Classic Economic Models collection of EconModel applications.
economics  model  modeling  education  reference  study-guide 
july 2010 by tsuomela
Open Agent Based Modeling Consortium | ... a node in the CoMSES network
The OpenABM Consortium is a group of researchers, educators, and professionals with a common goal - improving the way we develop, share, and utilize agent based models. We are currently developing a model archive to preserve and maintain the digital artifacts and source code comprising an agent based model.
agent-based-model  research  simulation  complexity  modeling  collaboration  model  professional-association  data 
june 2010 by tsuomela
[1005.4882] Predicting Influential Users in Online Social Networks
Who are the influential people in an online social network? The answer to this question depends not only on the structure of the network, but also on details of the dynamic processes occurring on it. We classify these processes as conservative and non-conservative. A random walk on a network is an example of a conservative dynamic process, while information spread is non-conservative. The influence models used to rank network nodes can be similarly classified, depending on the dynamic process they implicitly emulate.
network-analysis  influence  leadership  paper  model 
june 2010 by tsuomela
Hyperrhiz 06: Hans K. Rustad
A Four-Sided Model for Reading Hypertext Fiction
Hans K. Rustad
hypertext  fiction  reading  model 
october 2009 by tsuomela
Technology Review: Blogs: arXiv blog: The Evolution of Overconfidence
That's a mystery that many experimental psychologists have wrestled with, but now Johnson and Fowler say they have the answer. By creating a mathematical model of the way overconfident individuals compete against ordinary individuals, they show that there is a clear advantage in overconfidence.

In fact, if the potential reward is at least twice as great as the cost of competing, then overconfidence is the best strategy. In fact, overconfidence is actually advantageous on average, because it boosts ambition, resolve, morale, and persistence. In other words, overconfidence is the best way to maximize benefits over costs when risks are uncertain.
confidence  psychology  bias  model  mathematics  culture  evolution  overconfidence  social  evolutionary-psychology 
september 2009 by tsuomela
Scientific Explanation (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)
Models: DN Deductive-Nomological (Hempel); SR - Statistical Relevance; CM - Causal Mechanical; unification
philosophy  science  explanation  nature  naturalism  epistemology  methodology  history  causation  model  theory  statistics  deduction 
september 2009 by tsuomela
Open Left:: Education vs. Indoctrination--Beyond False Balance
The whole aim of liberal education-in the liberal vs. servile sense-is to fit one for a life of intellectual independence, and moral autonomy. Critical thinking is central to this. One cannot freely choose anything if one is ignorant of, and therefore slave to, unexamined prejudices and assumptions. That is why students are challenged to defend what they believe, it is why they are "forced" to learn views that they don't agree with, too. It's not enough to say, "I hate liberalism." You actually have to learn something about it, and then give some reasons for your hatred-at the very least

Plenty of students fiercely resist this. They don't want to think. This isn't limited to any one political view. Our entire popular culture is orientated away from thinking. Thinking gets in the way of non-stop consumption.
education  purpose  learning  critical-thinking  pedagogy  learning-theory  model  psychology 
september 2009 by tsuomela
Tracing information flow on a global scale using Internet chain-letter data — PNAS
Although information, news, and opinions continuously circulate in the worldwide social network, the actual mechanics of how any single piece of information spreads on a global scale have been a mystery. Here, we trace such information-spreading processes at a person-by-person level using methods to reconstruct the propagation of massively circulated Internet chain letters. We find that rather than fanning out widely, reaching many people in very few steps according to “small-world” principles, the progress of these chain letters proceeds in a narrow but very deep tree-like pattern, continuing for several hundred steps. This suggests a new and more complex picture for the spread of information through a social network. We describe a probabilistic model based on network clustering and asynchronous response times that produces trees with this characteristic structure on social-network data.
information-cascade  information-science  information  communication  email  dissemination  viral  networks  network-analysis  ideas  rumor  internet  circulation  epidemics  diffusion  research  paper  probability  model  social-networks 
august 2009 by tsuomela
Tripoli Minnesota
Welcome to the Tripoli Minnesota Website. We are prefecture #45 of the Tripoli Rocketry Association
minnesota  club  rocketry  model 
august 2009 by tsuomela
Lucas roundtable: Ask the right questions | Free exchange |
But all the tools in the world are useless if we lack the imagination needed to build the right models. Models are built to answer specific questions.
economics  macroeconomic  recession  failure  model  questions  modeling 
august 2009 by tsuomela
Overcoming Bias : How Wrong Can We Be?
This all seems to add up to a consistent expert consensus that humans quite often, perhaps even usually, just don’t know why they do what they do. And this is extremely disturbing, as it calls into question our own opinions about why we do what we do.
reason  reasoning  bias  model  economics  failure  cognitive-science  mistakes  cognition 
august 2009 by tsuomela
Modelling to contain pandemics : Article : Nature
Agent-based computational models can capture irrational behaviour, complex social networks and global scale — all essential in confronting H1N1, says Joshua M. Epstein.
agent-based-model  epidemic  pandemic  health  medicine  model 
august 2009 by tsuomela
The Tipping Point: Fascinating but mythological? | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
Tipping point stories are fascinating, but do we observe them in the real world? I became intrigued with this question a while ago and eventually published a paper testing the predictions of the tipping point story for its original application – racial segregation of US neighbourhoods
metaphor  model  economics  sociology  demography  urban  race 
july 2009 by tsuomela
Picoeconomics (micro-micro-economics) explores the implications of an experimental discovery: that people (often) and lower animals (always) discount the prospect of future rewards in a curve that is more deeply bowed than a "rational," exponential curve. Over a range of delays from seconds to decades, there are pairs of alternative rewards such that subjects prefer the smaller, earlier reward over the larger, later alternative when delay to the smaller reward will be short, but prefer the larger, later reward when the smaller alternative will be more delayed, even though the time from the earlier to the later reward stays the same. The curves that fit the observed data best are hyperbolic, that is, show value as inversely proportional to delay.
akrasia  will-power  philosophy  economics  mathematics  model  motivation  picoeconomics 
june 2009 by tsuomela
Sharing Power (Aussie Rules) | the human network
What, then, is leadership in the cloud? It is not like leadership in the tower. It is not a position wrought from power, but authority in its other, and more primary meaning, ‘to be the master of’. Authority in the cloud is drawn from dedication, or, to use rather more precise language, love. Love is what holds the cloud together. People are attracted to the cloud because they are in love with the aim of the cloud.
online  culture  model  cloud  motivation  peer-production 
may 2009 by tsuomela
OnFiction: Folk Psychology and Narrative
Daniel Hutto has written Folk psychological narratives (2008) to argue against the idea that we each use a theory-of-mind to understand other people.
psychology  cognition  awareness  other  folk-psychology  mental  model 
april 2009 by tsuomela
[0901.2203] Neural Networks as dynamical systems
We consider neural networks from the point of view of dynamical systems theory. In this spirit we review recent results dealing with the following questions, adressed in the context of specific models. 1. Characterizing the collective dynamics
biology  neuralnetworks  neurology  model  dynamics  systems  complexity 
february 2009 by tsuomela
How Voters Decide - Cambridge University Press
This book attempts to redirect the field of voting behavior research by proposing a paradigm-shifting framework for studying voter decision making. An innovative experimental methodology is presented for getting ‘inside the heads’ of citizens as they confront the overwhelming rush of information from modern presidential election campaigns. Four broad theoretically-defined types of decision strategies that voters employ to help decide which candidate to support are described and operationally-defined. Individual and campaign-related factors that lead voters to adopt one or another of these strategies are examined. Most importantly, this research proposes a new normative focus for the scientific study of voting behavior: we should care about not just which candidate received the most votes, but also how many citizens voted correctly - that is, in accordance with their own fully-informed preferences.
political-science  voting  psychology  theory  decision-making  model 
october 2008 by tsuomela
Virtual Learning » Reflecting on reflection
We developed a model for reflection, derived from exercises with the workshop participants and systematically enhanced by our tutor consultants. This can be used to help design reflective questions, and to mark them. Reflection can be an iterative process involving different stages which can be at a basic level or deeper. It normally starts with a basic observation of an incident, you might then notice the effects, report how that impacts on you, identify your own position and look at how you can improve.
reflection  psychology  model  education  learning 
october 2008 by tsuomela
How to Save the World - Principles of a Polyamorous Natural Community
the creation of model intentional communities that are essentially polyamorous in nature (i.e. membership in the community is self-selected in such a way that all members of the community love each other, equally, with no pervasive pair bonds).
community  online  polyamory  natural  model  love  future 
november 2007 by tsuomela

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