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tsuomela : prediction   96

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How Donald Trump Could Beat Hillary Clinton | The Nation
"In the general election, he could win by running to her left—and her right."
politics  campaign  2016  prediction  election  trade  liberal 
march 2016 by tsuomela
Don't know whether this will be prescient or not.
politics  american  campaign  2016  prediction 
march 2016 by tsuomela
AHR Form: histories of the future 1. David C. Engerman. Introduction: Histories of the Future and the Futures of History 2. Jenny Andersson. The Great Future Debate and the Struggle for the World 3. Matthew Connelly, Matt Fay, Giulia Ferrini, Micki Kaufman, Will Leonard, Harrison Monsky, Ryan Musto, Taunton Paine, Nicholas Standish, and Lydia Walker. “General, I Have Fought Just as Many Nuclear Wars as You Have”: . Forecasts, Future Scenarios, and the Politics of Armageddon 4. Manu Goswami. Imaginary Futures and Colonial Internationalisms
history  historiography  future  prediction  futurism 
november 2014 by tsuomela
"Empires rise and fall, populations and economies boom and bust, world religions spread or wither... What are the mechanisms underlying such dynamical processes in history? Are there 'laws of history'? We do not lack hypotheses to investigate - to take just one instance, more than two hundred explanations have been proposed for why the Roman Empire fell. But we still don't know which of these hypotheses are plausible, and which should be rejected. More importantly, there is no consensus on what general mechanisms explain the collapse of historical empires. What is needed is a systematic application of the scientific method to history: verbal theories should be translated into mathematical models, precise predictions derived, and then rigorously tested on empirical material. In short, history needs to become an analytical, predictive science"
science  history  scientism  prediction 
september 2013 by tsuomela
National Intelligence Council - Global Trends
"The National Intelligence Council's (NIC) Global Trends Report engages expertise from outside government on factors of such as globalization, demography and the environment, producing a forward-looking document to aid policymakers in their long term planning on key issues of worldwide importance. Since the first report was released in 1997, the audience for each Global Trends report has expanded, generating more interest and reaching a broader audience that the one that preceded it. A new Global Trends report is published every four years following the U.S. presidential election."
futures  prediction  government  intelligence  america  empire 
january 2013 by tsuomela
Tomgram: Engelhardt, Apocalypse When? | TomDispatch
"Ever since, every few years the National Intelligence Council (NIC), the IC’s “center for long-term strategic analysis,” has been intent on producing a document it calls serially Global Trends [fill in the future year].  The latest edition, out just in time for Barack Obama’s second term, is Global Trends 2030.  Here’s one utterly predictable thing about it: it’s bigger and more elaborate than Global Trends 2025.  "
futures  prediction  government  intelligence  america  empire 
january 2013 by tsuomela
Why do people pay for useless advice? Implications of gambler's and hot-hand fallacies in false-expert settingsIZA - Institute for the Study of Labor
"We investigated experimentally whether people can be induced to believe in a non-existent expert, and subsequently pay for what can only be described as transparently useless advice about future chance events. Consistent with the theoretical predictions made by Rabin (2002) and Rabin and Vayanos (2010), we show empirically that the answer is yes and that the size of the error made systematically by people is large. "
economics  research  statistics  probability  expertise  reasoning  chance  bias  prediction  cognition 
june 2012 by tsuomela
Open the Future: The Future Isn't What It Used to Be
"And on and on. If futurists have become almost too good at technological foresight, we remain woefully primitive in our abilities to examine and forecast changes to cultural, political, and social dynamics.

Why is this? There isn't a single cause. "
futurism  futures  prediction  technology  social  change 
february 2012 by tsuomela
Structure Strangeness: What is the probability of a 9/11-size terrorist attack?
Sunday is the 10-year anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. As a commemoration of the day, I'm going to investigate answers to a very simple question: what is the probability of a 9/11-size or larger terrorist attack?
terrorism  probability  complexity  prediction  model  social 
september 2011 by tsuomela
Beyond Prediction - Charlie's Diary
"In other words I have a new ambition for my own SF: not as prediction, and not cautionary, either--but aspirational.

The fact is that if I've learned one thing in two years of studying how we think about the future, it's that the one thing that's sorely lacking in the public imagination is positive ideas about where we should be going. We seem to do everything about our future except try to design it. It's a funny thing: nobody ever questions your credentials if you predict doom and destruction. But provide a rosy picture of the future, and people demand that you justify yourself. Increasingly, though, I believe that while warning people of dire possibilities is responsible, providing them with something to aspire to is even more important. The foresight programme has given me a lot of tools to do that in a justifiable way, so I might as well use them."
foresight  futurism  futures  aspiration  sf  literature  writing  prediction  near-far 
july 2011 by tsuomela
The Anti-Predictor: A Chat with Mathematical Sociologist Duncan Watts: Scientific American
"Though Lazarsfeld was writing 60 years ago, 20/20 hindsight is still very much with us. Contemporary psychologists call this tendency to view the past as more predictable than it actually was "the hindsight bias." Watts, a Yahoo! Labs scientist best known for his research on social networks and his earlier book, Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age (W. W. Norton, 2003), argues that this tendency is a greatly underappreciated problem, one that not only causes us to make up just-so stories to explain any conceivable outcome—but to delude ourselves that we can predict the future by learning from the past."
interview  sociology  internet  yahoo  book  prediction  randomness 
april 2011 by tsuomela
Rocket Radio - an Article by William Gibson
"ONCE PERFECTED, communication technologies rarely die out entirely
technology  technology-adoption  user  street  adaptation  anarchy  future  prediction 
april 2011 by tsuomela
Meteorologists review accuracy of predictions | meteorologists, predictions, accuracy - Forecast aftermath - The Telegraph
"Predicted to be a storm of historic proportions, Tuesday’s snow and ice storm fell short of expectations, and meteorologists couldn’t be happier."
meteorology  prediction  weather  science  success  failure  accuracy 
february 2011 by tsuomela
The Virtuosi: Darts
Modeling where to aim in darts to maximize your score.
physics  games  prediction 
january 2011 by tsuomela
Overcoming Bias : Gambling Save Science?
Academics are trustees of one of our greatest resources – the accumulated abstract knowledge of our ancestors. Academics appear to spend most of their time trying to add to that knowledge, and such effort is mostly empirical – seeking new interesting data. Alas, for the purpose of intellectual progress, most of that effort is wasted. And one of the main wastes is academics being too gullible about their and allies’ findings, and too skeptical about rivals’ findings.
academia  academic  bias  confirmation-bias  gullibility  skepticism  prediction  markets 
december 2010 by tsuomela
After good or bad events, people forget how they thought they'd feel
People aren't very accurate at predicting how good or bad they'll feel after an event -- such as watching their team lose the big game or getting a flat-screen TV. But afterwards, they "misremember" what they predicted, revising their prognostications after the fact to match how they actually feel, according to new research.
psychology  self-analysis  self-knowledge  future  prediction  forgetting  memory 
november 2010 by tsuomela
Stumbling and Mumbling: Fallible preferences & universities
20-year-olds cannot predict the specific skills they’ll need in the labour market in 10-20 years time. This is not just because they don‘t know what jobs they‘ll have then, but because they don‘t know how occupations will change. For this reason, there’s a huge danger that purely vocational skills will quickly date. Instead, the key is to teach them more general skills: how to interpret evidence; how to write, and so on. One good way to do this is to give them a rigorous education in anything; how else do you explain the economic success of Oxford classics graduates?
education  purpose  business  utility  career  prediction  preference  university 
october 2010 by tsuomela
Popper's Foresight & Horizon Scanning Blog
Rafael Popper (1976- ) has more than 10 years experience as a foresight researcher and practitioner. Since 2002 he is based at PREST Manchester Institute of Innovation Research of the University of Manchester (one of the world’s leading foresight think tanks)
weblog-individual  futurists  future  prediction  weak-signals  horizon-scanning  foresight 
july 2010 by tsuomela
The field of futures and forecasting is undergoing a revolution. Since the field was founded in the 1950s, the problems futurists must make sense of have become much more complex. The tools we can use-- and could develop-- to follow trends and forecast possible futures have become more sophisticated. The audiences we try to reach have expanded. The media we use to communicate have changed. And our knowledge of how people and groups actually think about and respond to the future has evolved greatly. The purpose of this blog is to make sense of how the field is responding to these changes, and try see where the field is going-- in effect, to forecast the future of futures
weblog-individual  futurism  prediction 
january 2010 by tsuomela
The Uncertain Future
In the Uncertain Future, we let you input the full range of your uncertainties — and we show you the distribution over futures that your current, uncertain beliefs imply. We help you create your own picture of the uncertain future.
future  futurism  prediction  artificial-intelligence  singularity 
december 2009 by tsuomela
Open Left:: The Crash: Who Saw It Coming--And Why
Dutch economist Dirk Bezemer, writing in the Financial Times on September 7, "Why some economists could see the crisis coming". What's more, he has a much more detailed explanation in a 51-page paper, "'No One Saw This Coming': Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models" (pdf). Long story short, Bezemer set out to find those who had been right in predicting the financial meltdown, not just randomly, but because of a well-reasoned argument. He found eight examples-including Baker-and analyzed what they had in common. He discovered that they all relied on accounting models that looked at the economy in terms of stocks and flows, in sharp contrast to the standard macro-economic models that actually have no way of predicting a financial crisis, since their programming does not allow for the possibility.
economics  prediction  recession  macroeconomic  methods  modeling  retrospective 
october 2009 by tsuomela
chaospet » Archive » #143 Zombie Karl Popper
Comic about the efficient market hypothesis and its defenders, especially John Cochrane who said that EMH predicts that no one can predict anything so it must be true.
humor  economics  science  philosophy  efficient-markets-hypothesis  falsifiable  evidence  comic  prediction  geeky 
september 2009 by tsuomela
Stumbling and Mumbling: Economists, stories & mechanisms
First, I fear Anthony has too much confidence in economists’ ability to build useful scenarios. The problem is that extreme events are often not captured by scenarios. For example, back in 2007 loads of economists had a disaster scenario. But these revolved around an unwinding of consumer debt, or a meltdown of hedge funds, or a dollar collapse triggered by global imbalances. Very few indeed had a remotely accurate credit crunch scenario.
economics  prediction  finance  rationality  sociology  decision-making  scenario-planning  story-telling  wages  minimum-wage 
september 2009 by tsuomela
Access : Early-warning signals for critical transitions : Nature
Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.
complexity  science  dynamics  systems  prediction  early-warning  change 
september 2009 by tsuomela
Andy McKenzie: The Blog: Building a Relationship With Your Future Selves
People in their 20s wished they had saved for travel, people in their 30s wished they had saved for a house, and people in their 40s wished they had saved for retirement. His implicit suggestion is that younger people should use this data and get "ahead" of the curve by aligning their current savings patterns with what they probably will want to have done in 20 years.
philosophy  future  self  prediction  rationality 
july 2009 by tsuomela
Using Forecasting Markets to Manage Demand Risk
A research effort launched in 2005 sought to introduce new methodologies that might help crack the bias in demand signals. We worked with our academic partners to develop a new application, a form of prediction market, integrated with Intel's regular short-term forecasting processes. The process enables product and market experts to dynamically negotiate product forecasts in an environment offering anonymity and performance-based incentives.
prediction  markets  case-study 
july 2009 by tsuomela
iran and unpredictable events «
quick taxonomy of unpredictability: information, computational, endogenous, chaotic, under-determined
prediction  future 
june 2009 by tsuomela
The future of education
The future of education: The class of 1989

from: LOOK magazine, February 21, pp. 23-25.
education  future  past  prediction  media  by(MarshallMcLuhan) 
may 2009 by tsuomela
Wrong Tomorrow - time vs. pundits
Predictions tracked and then evaluated.
prediction  pundits 
april 2009 by tsuomela
American Civics Exchange
prediction market for political events.
prediction  markets  hedging 
march 2009 by tsuomela
Economic upturn in two months: Expert-India Business-Business-The Times of India
During this season of gloom, when experts say the economy will not look up till at least 2010, Eliyahu M Goldratt begs to differ.
economics  crisis  2009  prediction  gloom-and-doom 
march 2009 by tsuomela
Real Time Economics : Ignoring the Oracles: You Are With the Free Markets, or Against Them
It’s hard to tell what’s more striking about Raghuram Rajan’s 2005 presentation at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium — the way many of the dangers he laid out came to pass, or the way he was attacked, and then discounted.

Mr. Rajan came to the conference, dedicated to soon-to-retire Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, with strong bona fides as a pro market advocate.
economics  ideology  orthodoxy  dogma  free-markets  prediction  history  crisis 
january 2009 by tsuomela
UCR|eLab eXchange
The eLab eXchange is brought to you by the Sloan Center for Internet Retailing at the University of California, Riverside.
crowdsourcing  economics  forecast  prediction  markets  academic  research 
may 2008 by tsuomela
Prediction Markets Software - Qmarkets | Qmarkets
Qmarkets provides your company with accurate forecasting capabilities for future events, relying on your employees collective intelligence. We allow your employees to participate in prediction markets that you create, to get the forecasts you are looking
prediction  markets  business 
february 2008 by tsuomela
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