tsuomela : probability   59

Forecasting: principles and practice | OTexts
"Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly."
book  online  open-access  open-education  textbook  statistics  probability  forecasting
october 2016 by tsuomela
The Technium: The Improbable is the New Normal
"I am unsure of what this intimacy with the improbable does to us. What happens if we spend all day exposed to the extremes of life, to a steady stream of the most improbable events, and try to run ordinary lives in a background hum of superlatives? What happens when the extraordinary becomes ordinary?"
online  behavior  psychology  probability  unusual  improbable  rarity  black-swan  perception  technology-effects
january 2013 by tsuomela
Why do people pay for useless advice? Implications of gambler's and hot-hand fallacies in false-expert settingsIZA - Institute for the Study of Labor
"We investigated experimentally whether people can be induced to believe in a non-existent expert, and subsequently pay for what can only be described as transparently useless advice about future chance events. Consistent with the theoretical predictions made by Rabin (2002) and Rabin and Vayanos (2010), we show empirically that the answer is yes and that the size of the error made systematically by people is large. "
economics  research  statistics  probability  expertise  reasoning  chance  bias  prediction  cognition
june 2012 by tsuomela
Structure Strangeness: What is the probability of a 9/11-size terrorist attack?
Sunday is the 10-year anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. As a commemoration of the day, I'm going to investigate answers to a very simple question: what is the probability of a 9/11-size or larger terrorist attack?
terrorism  probability  complexity  prediction  model  social
september 2011 by tsuomela
Predicting the improbable: Evidence from playing the lottery | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
"Using data from the particularly clear-cut case of lotto gambling, this study shows that laypeople tend to draw strong conclusions based on few observations, and that biases are common and systematic when predicting improbable events. In a more general perspective, such biases may induce public opinion and the media to call for dramatic swings in policy in response to highly improbable events. Politicians are then under pressure to yield to popular demands for drastic regulation. However, regulators would be well-advised to be aware of the common tendency to over-infer regularities from rare events and to carefully investigate whether observed data indeed warrants a dramatic swing in policy."
bias  research  psychology  gambling  lottery  probability
april 2011 by tsuomela
NHLBI: National Cholesterol Education Program
"The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) launched the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) in November 1985. The goal of the NCEP is to contribute to reducing illness and death from coronary heart disease (CHD) in the United States by reducing the percent of Americans with high blood cholesterol. "
health  medicine  cholesterol  heart-disease  recommendations  probability  government
march 2011 by tsuomela
ATP III At-A-Glance: Quick Desk Reference, NHLBI, NCEP
"This health professional reference outlines cholesterol management in a sequence of easy-to-follow steps. "
health  medicine  cholesterol  heart-disease  recommendations  probability  research
march 2011 by tsuomela
A frequentist interpretation of probability for model-based inductive inference
"The main objective of the paper is to propose a frequentist interpretation of probability in the context of model-based induction, anchored on the Strong Law of Large Numbers (SLLN) and justifiable on empirical grounds."
statistics  probability  frequentist  interpretation  mathematics  via:cshalizi
march 2011 by tsuomela
PsycNET - Direct Products
After 4 decades of severe criticism, the ritual of null hypothesis significance testing (mechanical dichotomous decisions around a sacred .05 criterion) still persists. This article reviews the problems with this practice...
science  statistics  probability  null-hypothesis
march 2011 by tsuomela
SSRN-Overconfidence is a Social Signaling Bias by Stephen Burks, Jeffrey Carpenter, Lorenz Goette, Aldo Rustichini
Evidence from psychology and economics indicates that many individuals overestimate their ability, both absolutely and relatively. We test three different theories about observed relative overconfidence.
paper  overconfidence  psychology  dunning-kruger-effect  probability  test  experiments
september 2010 by tsuomela
[1009.0240] Modeling Dynamical Influence in Human Interaction Patterns
We present a new perspective, together with a model and algorithm, on a well-observed property of many social phenomena: the influence strength between individuals changes over time (e.g., friendships break and reform). We propose an unsupervised generative switching model that simultaneously captures the system dynamics as the outcome of both (i) the influence between individuals (each modeled as an HMM), and (ii) the dynamics of the influence itself. We describe here a variational Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. In our experiments, we illustrate applications of detecting structural change, predicting turn taking by analyzing a real group discussion behavior dataset and understanding flu influence patterns between US states. Results demonstrate that our approach is a strong alternative for modeling complex interacting social systems.
social  interaction  influence  model  mathematics  probability  statistics  markov-chain
september 2010 by tsuomela
History of the Central Limit Theorem
This study discusses the history of the central limit theorem and related probabilistic limit theorems from about 1810 through 1950. In this context the book also describes the historical development of analytical probability theory and its tools, such as characteristic functions or moments. The central limit theorem was originally deduced by Laplace as a statement about approximations for the distributions of sums of independent random variables within the framework of classical probability, which focused upon specific problems and applications. Making this theorem an autonomous mathematical object was very important for the development of modern probability theory.
book  publisher  history  mathematics  statistics  methodology  19c  probability
june 2010 by tsuomela
Tracing information flow on a global scale using Internet chain-letter data — PNAS
Although information, news, and opinions continuously circulate in the worldwide social network, the actual mechanics of how any single piece of information spreads on a global scale have been a mystery. Here, we trace such information-spreading processes at a person-by-person level using methods to reconstruct the propagation of massively circulated Internet chain letters. We find that rather than fanning out widely, reaching many people in very few steps according to “small-world” principles, the progress of these chain letters proceeds in a narrow but very deep tree-like pattern, continuing for several hundred steps. This suggests a new and more complex picture for the spread of information through a social network. We describe a probabilistic model based on network clustering and asynchronous response times that produces trees with this characteristic structure on social-network data.
information-cascade  information-science  information  communication  email  dissemination  viral  networks  network-analysis  ideas  rumor  internet  circulation  epidemics  diffusion  research  paper  probability  model  social-networks
august 2009 by tsuomela
Between Cell Phones And Higher Speed Limits, 25,000 Deaths And \$1 Trillion Lost On US Roads? » INFRASTRUCTURIST
Why are we so reluctant to regulate driving with cell phones or lower speed limits despite clear statistical evidence that the number of deaths caused by these items is significant?
transportation  risk  perception  cellphone  speed  automobile  death  statistics  probability  freedom
july 2009 by tsuomela
[cs/0406061] The Complexity of Agreement
A celebrated 1976 theorem of Aumann asserts that honest, rational Bayesian agents with common priors will never "agree to disagree": if their opinions about any topic are common knowledge, then those opinions must be equal. Economists have written numerous papers examining the assumptions behind this theorem. But two key questions went unaddressed: first, can the agents reach agreement after a conversation of reasonable length? Second, can the computations needed for that conversation be performed efficiently? This paper answers both questions in the affirmative, thereby strengthening Aumann's original conclusion.
reasoning  rationality  bayes  probability  philosophy  agreement  disagreement
may 2009 by tsuomela
Rationally Speaking: The very foundations of science
short summary of some probabilistic responses to the problem of induction
sts  philosophy  induction  about(DavidHume)  science  probability
march 2009 by tsuomela
[0810.5515] Probing the Improbable: Methodological Challenges for Risks with Low Probabilities and High Stakes
Some risks have extremely high stakes. For example, a worldwide pandemic or asteroid impact could potentially kill more than a billion people. Comfortingly, scientific calculations often put very low probabilities on the occurrence of such catastrophes. In this paper, we argue that there are important new methodological problems which arise when assessing global catastrophic risks and we focus on a problem regarding probability estimation.
risk  probability  statistics  arxiv  scale
february 2009 by tsuomela
Overcoming Bias: The Mechanics of Disagreement
Two ideal Bayesians cannot have common knowledge of disagreement
philosophy  argument  disagreement  bayes  probability  rationality
december 2008 by tsuomela
Introduction to Probability
This introductory probability book, published by the American Mathematical Society, is available from AMS bookshop. It has, since publication, also been available for download here in pdf format.
probability  math  statistics  reference  book  textbook
november 2008 by tsuomela
Ascription is an Anathema to any Enthusiasm » Blog Archive » Blow Up Rich
Another place I’ve been musing about exceptional, but inevitable, events is where you situate your career planning. I’ve a friend who likes to say that almost all the people he knows who made a fortune in their life “fell of a log into a pile of money” thru no special merit of their own except in some cases they consciously picked a good log to sit on. On the other hand a lot of people just fall off a log sooner or latter. It would be nice if, as you plan your career, you had a better sense of what the chances are in the trade you pick, in the economy at large. The fetish people have for presuming that career path probablities are entirely a matter of personal merit seem wreckless.
career  lifespan  probability  chance
august 2008 by tsuomela

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