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tsuomela : wisdom   17

most people aren’t good at most things | Fredrik deBoer
"There are so many places where we’ve turned over functions once performed by experts to amateurs, and we’re consistently surprised that it doesn’t work out."
crowdsourcing  crowdfunding  crowds  wisdom  knowledge  failure  experts 
december 2014 by tsuomela
[1406.7563] When is a crowd wise?
"Numerous studies and anecdotes demonstrate the "wisdom of the crowd," the surprising accuracy of a group's aggregated judgments. Less is known, however, about the generality of crowd wisdom. For example, are crowds wise even if their members have systematic judgmental biases, or can influence each other before members render their judgments? If so, are there situations in which we can expect a crowd to be less accurate than skilled individuals? We provide a precise but general definition of crowd wisdom: A crowd is wise if a linear aggregate, for example a mean, of its members' judgments is closer to the target value than a randomly, but not necessarily uniformly, sampled member of the crowd. Building on this definition, we develop a theoretical framework for examining, a priori, when and to what degree a crowd will be wise. We systematically investigate the boundary conditions for crowd wisdom within this framework and determine conditions under which the accuracy advantage for crowds is maximized. Our results demonstrate that crowd wisdom is highly robust: Even if judgments are biased and correlated, one would need to nearly deterministically select only a highly skilled judge before an individual's judgment could be expected to be more accurate than a simple averaging of the crowd. Our results also provide an accuracy rationale behind the need for diversity of judgments among group members. Contrary to folk explanations of crowd wisdom which hold that judgments should ideally be independent so that errors cancel out, we find that crowd wisdom is maximized when judgments systematically differ as much as possible. We re-analyze data from two published studies that confirm our theoretical results."
crowds  wisdom  aggregation  knowledge  distributed  cognition 
july 2014 by tsuomela
The Knowledge Pyramid: A Critique of the DIKW Hierarchy - The University of Arizona Campus Repository
"The paper evaluates the Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom (DIKW) Hierarchy. This hierarchy is part of the canon of information science and management. The paper considers whether the hierarchy, also known as the ‘Knowledge Hierarchy’, is a useful and intellectually desirable construct to introduce, whether the views expressed about DIKW are true and have evidence in favour of them, and whether there are good reasons offered or sound assumptions made about DIKW. Arguments are offered that the hierarchy is unsound and methodologically undesirable. The paper identifies a central logical error that DIKW makes. The paper identifies the dated and unsatisfactory philosophical positions of operationalism and inductivism as the philosophical backdrop to the hierarchy. The paper concludes with a sketch of some positive theories, of value to information science, on the nature of the components of the hierarchy: that data is anything recordable in a semantically and pragmatically sound way, that information is what is known in other literature as ‘weak knowledge’, that knowledge also is ‘weak knowledge’ and that wisdom is the possession and use."
data  information  knowledge  wisdom  hierarchy  theory  information-science 
september 2013 by tsuomela
The Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom Hierarchy and its Antithesis - The University of Arizona Campus Repository
"The now taken-for-granted notion that data lead to information, which leads to knowledge, which in turn leads to wisdom was first specified in detail by R. L. Ackoff in 1988. The Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom hierarchy is based on filtration, reduction, and transformation. Besides being causal and hierarchical, the scheme is pyramidal, in that data are plentiful while wisdom is almost nonexistent. Ackoffâ s formula linking these terms together this way permits us to ask what the opposite of knowledge is and whether analogous principles of hierarchy, process, and pyramiding apply to it. The inversion of the Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom hierarchy produces a series of opposing terms (including misinformation, error, ignorance, and stupidity) but not exactly a chain or a pyramid. Examining the connections between these phenomena contributes to our understanding of the contours and limits of knowledge."
data  information  knowledge  wisdom  hierarchy  theory  information-science 
september 2013 by tsuomela
The wisdom of the fringes? - Random Communications from an Evolutionary Edge
"I am coming to suspect that it is the fringes that make the difference between collective intelligence and collective wisdom. Collective intelligence solves problems or resolves conflicts of, by and for a group, an organization, a community or a whole society. It solve those problems and conflicts for the here and now, for people who are interested, aware, and involved."
wisdom  communications  marginal  evolution  open-space  conversation  fringes 
february 2013 by tsuomela
LEDFace Blog - Help Us Build a New Kind of Intelligence
"Ledface has a very specific goal: to enable people to tap into collective intelligence to acquire information to solve their day-to-day problems. Think of it as a new kind of social network in which people interact with each other indirectly, through knowledge, through Ledface.
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At Ledface, everyone can ask and we will match the question with the group best suited to answer. We select a group of people who match each query and we ask them to interact in real time as a team to create the answer. They share their thoughts, combine them, and review each other’s input. So you don’t get a list of replies, but a specific, custom answer co-created in real time each time you ask. No names, no ego, just knowledge."
collaboration  crowdsourcing  wisdom  crowds  intelligence  collective-intelligence  tools 
july 2011 by tsuomela
U.S. intelligence and the wisdom of crowds | Bernd Debusmann | Analysis
"t’s officially known as the Forecasting World Events Project and is sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Activity (IARPA), a little-known agency run by a woman, Lisa Porter, who is occasionally described as America’s answer to the fictional Agent Q who designs cutting edge gadgets for James Bond. Much of IARPA’s work is classified, as is its budget. But the forecasting project is not classified. Invitations to participate are now on the Internet.

The idea is to raise five large competing teams of people of diverse backgrounds who will be asked to make predictions on fields that range from politics and global security to business and economics, public health, social and cultural change and science and technology. The project is expected to run for four years and stems from the recognition that expert forecasts are very often wrong."
futurism  predictions  expertise  crowdsourcing  wisdom  distributed  cognition  intelligence  spying 
april 2011 by tsuomela
How wise are crowds?
Fortunately, in a paper to be published in the Review of Economic Studies, researchers from MIT’s Departments of Economics and Electrical Engineering and Computer Science have demonstrated that, as networks of people grow larger, they’ll usually tend to converge on an accurate understanding of information distributed among them, even if individual members of the network can observe only their nearby neighbors. A few opinionated people with large audiences can slow that convergence, but in the long run, they’re unlikely to stop it.
collective-intelligence  crowdsourcing  modeling  game-theory  simulation  intelligence  wisdom  networks  collective 
november 2010 by tsuomela
Defining Wisdom | A Project of the University of Chicago
The Arete Initiative at The University of Chicago has launched a $2 million research program on the nature and benefits of wisdom.
wisdom  knowledge-management  definition  research  projects  academic  academic-programs 
april 2008 by tsuomela

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